On The Clock:  Who do you take?

By FGFFP Staff   

This article is the first in a series of installments focusing on the most important day of the season....THE DRAFT!  In most leagues, preparation prior to the draft will typically vault you to the top 50% of your league.  The key to any successful draft is making good decisions when your turn comes.  It is even harder when there are time constraints for each round.  We intend to discuss typical decisions that could come up in your draft.  Our choices are based on the following scoring system:
*6 pts TD (rushing/receiving)
*4 pts passing TD
*1 pt per reception
*1 pt per 10 yards (rushing/receiving)
*1 pt per 20 yards passing

SCENARIO #2:

There is a run of elite WR's during the draft, it is your turn to pick a WR (assuming Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Holt, and Owens are gone).  Who do you choose between R. Moss, M. Harrison, L. Fitzgerald or A. Boldin and why?

OUR OPINIONS:

Greg Tucson - At this point I'd pass on Marvin.  I'd be afraid this is the year he starts showing his age and really playing second fiddle to Reggie Wayne.  Since

there are other stud WR's still available I'd go for one of those. Randy Moss is tempting but I got burned by him last year and the QB situation is anything but stable in Oakland.  The reports on Brooks aren't good so far this year and he wasn't sharp in his one preseason series.  That leaves two young stud WR's on the Cardinals and I would take Fitzgerald since he's more of a big-play guy whereas Boldin is more of a possession type.  I'd pray that Warner stays healthy (or at least that Leinart signs and can be a passable backup).

John Oaktree – First, I would not consider Randy Moss.  He scorned me deeply last season with a poor second half of the season, and for this year's draft and I will turn my head and look away.  I am not saying he will not be a top 5 WR this season, because he is talented enough to accomplish that feat, but I refuse to draft him after being burned by his performance.  As for my other choices, my selection will depend upon, how many picks until I pick again.  Going into this season, I am targeting one Indy's WRs for my fantasy team.  Harrison or Wayne, either one, does not matter.  If my next pick after this one is 20 spots until I pick again, then I will select Harrison, knowing that Wayne will be gone when my turn arrives again.  However, if I pick again in about 6-8 picks, then I will select one of the Cardinal WRs, thinking that I can still obtain Wayne with my next pick.  The decision between Fitz and Boldin is a difficult one as both had great stats last season.  Boldin appears to be Warner's favorite target and Fitz is clearly a young talented deep threat.  I would choose Fitz just because of his big play ability and then keep my fingers crossed that Wayne will still be there at my next pick.

Chris Slater - A good question.  Sooner or later Wayne becomes the new #1 in Indy, but even then Harrison will remain Manning's clutch guy.  Still, any time two top-notch receivers are splitting receptions - even in a prolific offense - things get touchy.  The same story goes for Arizona, except Warner is no Manning.  With James getting a bunch of the TDs that receivers claimed last year because of Arizona's pathetic running game, Fitz and Bold will both see reduced fantast production.  It is more likely one or the other will become more of a true #1 with the numbers to match - most likely Fitzgerald.  So by now you know where I'm looking.  Randy Moss is still freakishly talented and the Raiders will be playing from behind plenty.  Brooks has a big arm and will give Moss plenty of chances to score.  I expect to see Randy return to his top-3 status by the end of the year, and he will be a steal as the 5th wideout taken in your draft.

Holden Ridge - Fitzgerald is the next receiver off the board. Actually I would take him before a few of the others. Stats don't lie. 103 receptions for 1,409 yds and 10 TD's. There is plenty of ball to go around, even with Edge. Defenses can't double cover Larry because of Anquan, and they can no longer downplay the running game. Can you say " a star is born"?

Joe Blake - In a normal year I'm going with Larry Fitzgerald or Boldin, however, not this year. I don't know how many more he has in him, but this year is a big one for Starvin' Marvin Harrison. Their run game is not chopped liver, but it ain't Edge either. One area few people gave James credit was his blocking ability, especially in blitz situations. This is not a strong suit of Dominic Rhodes.  What you may ask does this mean? Less play action, more shotgun and 3 receiver sets, which means a spread out defense.  This leads to one-on-one coverage, which means more passes and more completions. Harrison should easily have 100 receptions, probably more. Touchdowns will probably be about evenly spread around; so figure 10-12 for Harrison. Combine that with his yardage and receptions and he's a top 5 receiver.

Joseph Pinecrest – Of these choices, cases could be made for all of them.  I am nervous of Randy Moss for two reasons; he disappears from games or pouts when not featured, and I’m not sold on Aaron Brooks as a QB.  The safe pick is Marvin Harrison, but his TD totals have been decreasing over the last few years, and that is concerning for an elite WR.  That leaves me with the two Cardinal receivers.  I would choose Larry Fitzgerald over Boldin, because he is the speed receiver rather than a possession receiver.  The only negative of selecting Fitzgerald is that Boldin seems to be Warner’s favorite receiver.  The question is how long will Warner be playing before he gets hurt?

 

SCENARIO #1:

With the top 3 picks in most leagues being Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson (not necessarily in that order), if you have the #4 pick, who do you take?

OUR OPINIONS:

Greg Tucson - I'd have to go with Steven Jackson.&nbssp; RB's are the most important position in FF and I'm not willing to put a top flight QB or WR in the top 5 of the draft.  St. Louis is expected to be much more dedicated to the running game this season and Jackson made the most of the carries he got last year.  Tiki Barber is tempting as well, but despite his stellar 2005 I think his age will catch up to him at some point and he's in the very tough NFC East.

John Oaktree – Clinton Portis.  I have several reasons why I choose him above the other players, so let’s take a look at the other potential candidates:

Tiki Barber – I don’t like Tiki this season for a couple of reasons.  They drafted Sinorice Moss and reports from camp suggest that many screen passes will go to the young WR, thus taking away some of Tiki’s bread and butter.  Also, RB Brandon Jacobs was injured last season and Tiki had many goal line opportunities.  That’s all about to change this year as Jacobs returns healthy and again will be involved in short yardage situations.  And to top it all off, the 31 year old Tiki mentioned retirement after the season, and that may become a distraction this year.

 

Edgerrin James – Edge is listed in magazines anywhere from #4 all the way to #12 in RB rankings.  The main reason being, coming to a new team where the offensive line was just terrible the year before.  That should be enough to scare away any fantasy owner at the #4 overall pick.  I would wait on him; the #6 pick is safer.

 

Peyton Manning – He is a valid candidate at #4.  I believe he will have an incredible season much like he accomplished in 2004.  But, my problem is this, if you are in a 12 team league, I would NOT select him.  It’s too high, and you will have to wait 16 more picks before you get a RB in the 2nd round, and that may be too late.  If you are in an 8 team league, feel free to take Manning.  There should still be a decent RB in the 2nd round for you.

 

Now on to Portis.  Not only did he have a great year last season, but he can continue to build on his success.  Coach Gibbs is a run oriented; control the clock, type coach.  Gibbs also brought in former KC coordinator Al Saunders, who help guys like Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson (heard of them?).  His coaching style helped open running lanes in the offensive line and make those KC running backs the top backs in fantasy football.  Portis is next on his list to succeed.

Chris Slater - In my opinion, the choice is an easy one:  Tiki Barber.  The Giants offense is not going to be drastically different than last year, and as the younger Manning improves (he has looked very good in camp so far this  preseason) every offensive position will benefit.  Behind him the next best option is Jacobs, but he has yet to impress enough to steal many carries, and Barber was better at the stripe than Jacobs when the game was on the line.  He will put up plenty of yards rushing, catches a ton of balls, and will score with the best of 'em.  He also has a good history of remaining healthy - which makes him less likely to go bust on you.  Take Tiki and watch his numbers add up.

Holden Ridge - Has to be Peyton Manning. I understand the need to draft a running back early, but if you can't get the top three, the others are just too risky. You can't be sure Barber can make it through another full season at his age, Edge may not get the ball enough in Arizona, and the next group could all be potential busts. Taking a WR here is too dangerous. Not only don't they get enough touches but the WR position is pretty deep. It makes perfect sense to take the best player at the QB position, and the guy who won't miss a start. You will love watching ESPN and enjoying your QB's highlights. Just take Peyton.

 

Joe Blake - I'm taking Tiki Barber. Why, because he's got a cool name! The real reason is you look at his combined yards the last 3yrs. In leagues that reward for catches he is going to get you enough extra points to make up for the goal line carries he doesn't necessarily get. Not to mention his TD total last year was very good anyway.  For my money he is proven, which puts him ahead of Clinton Portis or Steven Jackson. He also is underrated every year , slipping to the 2nd round . After which you look at his numbers and say, wow, he had a great year. He is also one of the increasing rarities, a genuine #1 running back, who doesn't come out in passing situations. Did I mention the cool name?

Joseph Pinecrest – Edgerrin James.  Granted he was on a prolific offense, but he never got goal line carries (Rhodes and Mungro) and Peyton likes to throw for TD’s.  He now is the guy in Arizona and he is again in a prolific offense, provided Warner can stay healthy.  The key to Warner staying healthy is running the ball more.  Did you say he plays behind a bad offensive line?  Yes he does, but a great running back makes an average line look good.  Run blocking is about attitude.  A good RB sets up his blockls which help the linemen and they get confidence over the season.  He will make 4-5 ypc (yards per carry) as compared to 1-2 ypc as they did last year.

YOUR OPINION:
Let us know who you would take in this situation, by posting your comments in our Fantasy Guys Forum. Look for more draft decisions within a few days.