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Last Update: 10/02

A Look Into Regular Games

Of the 184 games finished on the Dip2000 website, 152 have been normal games and the other 32 have been games started from the three Regular lists. These Regular games are meant to provide stiffer competition to players looking for a more enjoyable game coming from a larger challenge and a lesser number of anarchies. The following is a study on how a game can be affected by the fact that it is played by a more experienced group of players.

Game Results By Percentage

The percentage of solos is significantly different for the two different types of games. Games starting from a normal waiting list end in a solo victory more than half the time, while for Regular games this ratio drops to one in four. Normal games tend to orient more towards a fewer number of victors, while the Regular games are just the opposite, having a lot of 3, 4, and 5-way draw games. I can think of two reasons why this is so. First, Regular games have fewer anarchies, meaning that fewer games are thrown because a player in a losing position quits and fails to fight the leading power on the board. The second reason is that experienced players are more alert to dominant powers and can communicate to others in time to prevent a juggernaut from sweeping the board.

Anarchies are a significant factor to the differences between Regular and Normal games, and the discrepancies in number of anarchies between the two types of games are substantial.

It is obvious that Regular players are considerably more dedicated than players from the Normal games. Anarchies occur in Normal games almost four times as often as in Regular games.

Surprisingly, a more experienced pool of players can dramatically dictate how well a specific country generally performs. First follow the general conclusions and then the lengthier statistical backing for those who are interested.

I have assigned a point system to each country to determine how well each performs over a series of games. Using an already existing system whose name I have forgotten, each game is assigned one point, which is distributed equally among each of the victors. Thus, a solo is worth one point, a two-way draw is worth a half point for both countries, and so on.

To compare Regular games to Normal games, I adjusted the statistics so that it looks like 700 Regular and 700 Normal games have been played.

Explanation of Table:

The Regular and Normal columns are divided into the country’s points the country’s rankings, which are based on the points. As mentioned above, the points are based on expanding the number of Regular or Normal games played to 700. Example: After playing 700 Regular games, based on the given point system, Austria would be estimated to score about 85 points. The last column subtracts the Normal points from the Regular points.

The real shocker here involves Italy and Turkey. Italy does horribly in Regular games, ranking last, while in Normal games, it performs very well, placing second. Turkey is just the opposite; doing above average in Regular games and very poorly in Normal games. Why?? Insight will be left to the reader, as I do not have an adequate answer. If anyone does have a theory please enlighten me.

The remainder of the table has several key points. Russia tops the charts by an overwhelming percentage in both cases, though a little less in Regular games. One article of notice is that the three central powers, Germany, Austria, and Italy, all did worse in Regular games. Perhaps this is because Regular players are more perceptive of early blitzkriegs, which are how many players do well with the three central powers. Finally, England does significantly better in Regular games and in this category is surpassed only by Turkey. The two wicked witches…hmmm. The reasoning for why corner countries do better in Regular games may be the opposite of why the central powers do worse.

All right, I promised statistics to those like me who are number-oriented and so the following is what I used to reach my conclusions. If numbers confuse you, then reading the remainder of this document will likely be of little value. Excel tables with attached comments:

32 Regular Games

France and Italy have yet to solo in a Regular game. This is not too surprising, as only 32 games have been played. Italy with 6 anarchies – remember that anarchies often come from almost eliminated players who do not care enough to continue.

152 Normal Games

Nothing too special here. Russia with many solos.

If 100 games were played then these two tables would look similar to this…

In Regular games, 56% of the time Austria is completely off the board upon game’s end. England is half of that with only 28%, even less than France who is usually considered the best survival country. However, in 50% of the games, France comes off with part of the draw.

The Anarchy + Elimination category is a lot more even this time around. France has the lowest percentage which is not surprising. England jumps up to 53% and is a sharp contrast to the 28% seen in the above table. A 14% Russian solo rating means that once in about every 7 games we see a Russian solo.

Also compiled were the types of draws each country were involved in. This helps to determine the collective points of each country. Similar to above, the first two tables presented will be the actual values, and the second pair will be the adjusted ones.

Highs and Lows: In Regular games, France and Italy have yet to solo. Austria and Russia have never shared in a 2-way draw. There has been one 6-way draw and Italy was the odd man out. Germany has had 7 4-way draws. France has been in 6 4-way and 6 3-way draws.

Again there has been one 6-way draw but this time England is the odd man out. The most common result to a Normal game is a Russia solo, and tied at second is a 3-way draw where France is involved and a 3-way draw where Italy is involved.

Tables translated into percentages…

The bottom row was used above to rank the countries.

Again, bottom row used in above analysis.

Not much to add. As more Regular games are played I will update this page. I hope this has been interesting to someone. Thanks to Karl Georg Øhrn for providing me with his spreadsheet of games from which my data was compiled. If anyone wants my numbers I can certainly send my Excel doc to you.

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John Nham