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Last Update: 12/03


Statistical Hit List

Austria, for example, currently has a rating of 91.7. If we then take only the games where Austria is eliminated or has anarchied, these 92 points are distributed among the other six countries.... unevenly of course. This page shows who benefits from who's demise the most, and may remind you when stabbing someone that some other power may be getting more out of it than you are.

Who Anarchies/gets Eliminated?

Just for reference:

Country Austria England France Germany Italy Russia Turkey
% of Games w/ Anar + Elim 52.7 41.9 33.2 45.7 39.3 44.4 47.6

This table just confirms the diplomatic truths that Austria dies more often than not and that France is the best country for a positive/neutral result. These numbers will not affect the rest of the page, which is based on averages.

Results

Along the left are the powers that have anarchied/been eliminated. Along the top are the new ratings of powers according to who is dead. For example, Austria has a rating of 147 in games where Turkey is no more. The diagonal of zeros represent the fact that country X has a rating of zero when country X is dead.

New Ratings Austria England France Germany Italy Russia Turkey
Austria (dead) 0 90.7 105 95.3 132 165 112
England (dead) 93.4 0 156 164 79.1 142 66
France (dead) 115 130 0 130 140 89.5 94.5
Germany (dead) 99.3 120 127 0 107 168 78.6
Italy (dead) 114 87.9 139 109 0 143 107
Russia (dead) 143 110 105 138 108 0 96.7
Turkey (dead) 147 77.4 95.2 83.9 141 156 0
Normal 91.7 86.7 111 100 103 128 79.7

BEFORE you go nuts with this table, below is the same table in a format that is a lot easier to read and understand. I just included the previous one to show how I arrived to the next one.... by subtracting a country's NORMAL rating from their ADJUSTED one to show net gain or loss. For example, in games where Turkey is dead, Austria has a net gain of 147 - 91.7 = 55.1 points. Get it? Also, another advantage is that from the previous table it looks as if Russia benefits from Austria's demise a lot more than Turkey does, but if you compare the new numbers with the two countries' normal ratings, you can see that they both benefit pretty equally.

Net Gain/Loss Austria England France Germany Italy Russia Turkey
Austria (dead) 0 4.06 -5.9 -5.1 29.5 36.6 32.6
England (dead) 1.77 0 45.1 63.2 -24 13.8 -14
France (dead) 23.3 43.7 0 29.8 37.7 -39 -14.8
Germany (dead) 7.63 32.9 16.7 0 4.48 39.7 -1
Italy (dead) 22.6 1.27 28.1 8.63 0 14.7 27.3
Russia (dead) 51.5 23.2 -5.9 37.1 5.3 0 17
Turkey (dead) 55.1 -9.2 -15 -17 38 27.7 0
"Kill Quotient" 162 95.9 62.8 117 91.3 93.8 77.1

Ok... go nuts.

More useless information:

    The Kill Quotient is just the sum of the rows, and it represents how much a country benefits from elimations around the board. Austria is the leader by far and is the only country to benefit when ANY other country on the board is gone. Not surprisingly, the two middle countries, Germany and Austria, have the most to gain from eliminations. On the flip side, France and Turkey benefit the least.
    In the case of negative numbers, it can actually hurt a country if a certain other power is eliminated or has anarchied. The lowest number on the board is -39, meaning that in games where France is dead, Russia's rating drops from 128 to 89.5! Italy is the only country whose death does not harm anyone, with Germany very close behind.
    Austria and Germany are the only neighbors where one killing the other doesn't create significant gains. The only other pair of neighbors that comes remotely close are England and Russia.
    The highest number on the board is 63.2 - England gains 63.2 rating points in games where Germany is dead. Germany also gains significantly from England's demise and the duo make the highest on the board with a sum of 63.2 + 32.9 = 96.2.
    For some odd reason Austria gains a sizable 23.3 points when France is dead.
    The western triple (EFG) generally does better when both Austria and Turkey are alive.

Other observations left to the reader.

Conclusion

In general, it seems that if you are in a position to make use of these tables, then you are already in pretty good shape and don't need to listen to some stupid numbers, right? :-) Otherwise, returning to the title of this page, for fun you can create your own little hit list at the beginning of the game from the last table..... for example if you are Italy:

1. Turkey
2. France
3. Austria
4. Russia
5. Germany
6. England

heh heh :-)

Regards,
John


Questions/comments to here.

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