Last Update: 11/03
Quality Games vs. "Ruined" Games
Similar to the "Regular Games" page I did over a year ago, this page compares the 'good' and the 'bad' games. Gradually I have realized, however, that the 'regular' status of a game does not necessarily make it good, and a game played by newbies does not make it bad. What's more, is that I've noticed that not all the Regular games I've played in have that little [R] next to them in the Archived Games section, and it would be impossible for me to check all the other games if they have been mislabeled or not. Add that to the non-Regular tournament games, and the line between 'Regular' and normal becomes pretty shady.
So naturally the next clear division in Diplomacy games is the number of anarchies present in the game, which in fact may produce more accurate statistics than in my previous page. So here are some numbers for you:
Note: For those who like the Regular/Normal games distinction, Regular games have an average of 0.36 Anarchies per game, while Normal games have 1.75 per game. A very large distinction, and you can see for yourself how these two types of games compare.
Who Anarchies?
It follows that the first thing to ask is if any powers anarchy more than others, so here are some percentages based on the number of games in which a specific country anarchies.
| Country | Austria | England | France | Germany | Italy | Russia | Turkey |
| % of Games Anarchied | 20 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 24 |
We can see that France anarchies less than the average (about 1 in 5), and Russia and Turkey both anarchy more than the average, with the other countries more or less the same. This is probably because players in losing positions tend to anarchy more, and France is eliminated the least of all the countries. I'm not sure why Russia would anarchy more than the average, though Turkey probably does from a combination of a high elimination rate (second to Austria), and because Turkey is usually a quiet country to play at start, and players tend to anarchy when they are bored with the game.
Game Results by Anarchies
Basically, how does the number of anarchies in a game affect how that game ends?
| # of Anarchies | Games | % Solo | 2-way Draw | 3-way Draw | 4-way Draw | 5-way Draw | 6-way Draw |
| 0 | 94 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 4.3 |
| 1 | 81 | 43 | 10 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 0 |
| 2 | 68 | 50 | 10 | 24 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 3+ | 62 | 58 | 13 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 305 | 45 | 11 | 21 | 14 | 8 | 1 |
I highlighted the % Solo column since it is the only one that is of any interest. The smaller draws have virtually the same occurance frequencies, while the larger draws are skewed because of the structure of the graph itself (ie. you cannot have a 5-way draw when there are 3 anarchies). Obviously it is easier to solo when those around you are anarchying, but by how much?? From doing a little math, it turns out that about 21% of the solos in games with one anarchy are not fully deserved, 32% of solos in two-anarchy games, and 41% of solos in games with even more anarchies! So in the end try not to complain for losing those few eagle points for anarchists when soloing, since it's likely they were a large reason for your win... no offense :-)
Country Ratings by Anarchies
So... do some countries benefit more than other's when there are anarchies on the board?
Yes.
| # of Anarchies | Austria | England | France | Germany | Italy | Russia | Turkey |
| Average | 93.3 | 88.4 | 109 | 98.9 | 104 | 127 | 80 |
| 0 | 95.2 | 112 | 116 | 91.0 | 105 | 102 | 79.2 |
| 1 | 82.1 | 71.9 | 103 | 112 | 104 | 132 | 95.1 |
| 2 | 83.6 | 84.4 | 118 | 108 | 102 | 154 | 49.6 |
| 3+ | 116 | 79.0 | 95.0 | 83.7 | 103 | 129 | 95.0 |
Honestly I can't make sense of what is going on in some parts of this table, but remember that there are at least 60 games for each of these conditions, so the results should not be inaccurate.
Austria - General trend is that it performs worse when a few anarchies arise, but perform better when there are more.
England - By far a country that does best when there are no anarchies, England's average country value is highly underestimated and when the game is played the way it is supposed to be, England is a powerful country.
France - Despite some slight waverings, it looks like France is ultimately not affected too much by anarchies.
Germany - Like France, there are some ups and downs, but nothing conclusive.
Italy - These results are great - Italy is a slightly above-average country that is neither hindered nor helped by the presence of anarchies. These results are quite conclusive, and I don't know why people think it is an undesirable thing to draw Italy (PS - I don't like Italy either :-) ).
Russia - Normally an average country, these results show where Russia gets her possibly undeserved praise from. When going up against a dedicated set of players, don't expect to get the "Russian advantage" as you would against players more likely to anarchy.
Turkey - This column is just weird.
The last thing to mention about this table is that the row with 0 anarchies represent the way the game is supposed to be played. While there is still a clear loser (Turkey), the winners (England and France) are more balanced out, which is more towards the spirit of the game.
Solos
Just for fun.
| # of Anarchies | Austria | England | France | Germany | Italy | Russia | Turkey |
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 2 |
| 3+ | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
0 - Who said this was an unbalanced game?? Except for Turkey...
1 - England odd man out this time for some reason.
2 - ie. Why people think Russia is so good. Well, at least for anarchy-prone games, it is good.
3 - Much like the 2-anarchy one, except the differences are less striking.
Conclusion
There are a lot more tables about anarchies that I can put up, but they all lead to the same conclusion, and I am already getting redundant, so I'll leave it at this. Basically anarchies ruin a game by letting people solo when they probably should not have, in particular Russia is the largest benefactor of anarchies.
Regards,
John
Questions/comments to here.