| The Future of the DP Predictions are hazardous! I have previously predicted that the DP will end within about 10-15 years primarily because of international pressure. Worldwide abolition of the DP is continuing and is embedded in international law (the EU, South Africa, many others). The US will become increasingly isolated in this respect and US moral authority will continue to erode. The US Supreme Court is �disengaging� from the DP and leaving a "broken system" for states to try to repair. Some additional points to think about: First: The collapse in Illinois is having ripple effects � the moratorium movement has spread - Maryland has a moratorium, Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Connecticut, and a few others are considering moratoria. New Jersey recently abolished its DP. The "broken system" can�t stand scrutiny - so once the collapse starts it is hard to stop. There probably will be no moratorium in California - the DP system is a mess, but politics is a bigger mess and stalemated. Second: As federal courts have withdrawn, state appeals courts have become pivotal, and some are becoming more responsible. Most states that have DP don't really use it, and strong resistance develops when they try. This is interesting � it probably indicates politicians know problems but "pass the buck" to the courts. Some DPIC stats from 2002: 19 states 0 exec 2 states 1 exec 11 states more than 1 total = 69 Texas 33 of 69 (some other states never exec at all!) What is stopping executions in most DP states? Mostly state courts and politicians! They are actually using the DP like LWOP! This is beginning to look a lot like what happened in the 1950s and 1960s. The Moratorium Campaign stopped executions at the state level long before Furman. The politics of problems with the DP begins to compete with the politics of "get tough" on crime and the balance eventually shifts against the DP because the costs of fixing the problems is enormous. If this continues, states that use DP will be like some southern states and the confederate flag - sort of anachronistic symbol. Third: The high cost of the DP. The imprisonment binge is costing billions of dollars, and devastating state budgets. The continuing economic collapse has also been disastrous for state budgets. Prisons are built with bond money - costs will continue long after the imprisonment binge ebbs. Abolishing the DP might end up as attractive cost cutting along with other wasteful CJS costs. Abolishing the DP will increasingly look financially attractive to state and local politicians. Conclusion � other views: Franklin Zimring and the American history of (racist) �vigilante justice� - about 25% of the public is hard-core conservative, about 25% is hard-core liberal - the DP will end as the 50% in the middle of the political spectrum begin to abandon "vigilante" values.. William Schabas (a founder of the International Criminal Court)� an interesting point on which to end the class. Continuing global abolition of the DP has been developmental (gradual) and has almost without exception been based on adoption of some basic principles of "universal human rights" Schabas points out that in his travels in the US talking about the International Criminal Court and the DP, he has found virtually no discussion of the DP and human rights � instead all of the discussion centers around practical issues (much like this class does!). Schabas thinks (hopes?) that Americans will eventually take up the discussion of human rights and align our legal system with the developing international principles. |