| STUDY SHEET -- CHAPTER 4 Note: this chapter is about �high rate offenders� (HROs) and �selective incapacitation� � the idea that a few chronic offenders commit huge numbers of crimes, and if we could identify them and get them off the streets we could lower crime rates a lot. What is a "high rate offender" HRO? (same as chronic, repeat, etc.) How did Marvin Wolfgang do his cohort studies? Wolfgang found that "6% of offenders commit 50% of crimes" (see table 4.1 on page 70). This is misleading because Wolfgang used �police contacts� (mostly arrests) as his measure of offending. Given the low clearance rates, there is not necessarily any relationship between frequency of offending and frequency of arrest. Walker contributes to the confusion here by first pointing out the problem, then confusing offending and arrest rates himself in subsequent discussions). Are there really any high rate offenders? Are most "spree" (short term) rather than "chronic" (long term) offenders? THE FOLLOWING ** ARE IMPORTANT/DIFFICULT AND WE WILL ENCOUNTER THEM AGAIN LATER - SO LEARN THEM WELL! ** What is the �prediction problem�? ** What are false positives and false negatives? (see Table 4-2 on page 75) ** What did the Rand studies (and others) conclude about predicting high rate offending? ** Bottom line: can we identify the small group of HROs early enough to stop them, and therefore reduce serious crime rates? |