Ahead of Elections, a Painful Reminder

 

Senate Republicans Raise U.S. Debt Limit,

Drawing Attention to Spending and Risking Seats

 

            In a nearly party-line vote, Senate Republicans. raised the U.S. debt limit so the nation can keep on borrowing, putting the country-and perhaps their party-further in the hole.

The $781 billion increase puts the debt limit at $8.965 trillion-the equivalent of $30,000 for every American, enough to cover borrowing past the November election and into the new year. But by drawing attention to record spending already in place, the action carries big political risks for Republicans. Republican leaders fear that many party faithful, demoralized by the Republicans' recent fiscal record, may not show up to vote in the midter.m elections, putting control of both the House and the Senate at stake.

            Should conservative voters stay home, a number of Republican senators are particularly vulnerable, including Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Missouri freshman Sen. Jim Talent, Montana Sen. Conrad Burns, and Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine. Democrats also say Arizona Sen. John Kyl could be at risk.

            Beyond 2006, yesterday's Senate vote was unwelcome for Republicans who covet the party's 2008 presidential nomination, particularly Senate MaJumy Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee. Moreover,

by the end of 2007, administration projec- .

tions show debt will swell to $9.3 trillion, requiring another vote to lift the ceiling.

            "Republican voters are very discouraged," says former Republican Rep. Pat Toomey, president of the conservative anti-tax Club for Growth. "The intensity and party loyalty that Republicans need isn't there, and it's largely because they've abandoned their commitment to fiscal discipline," he says, referring to Club for Growth's polls in 20 congressional districts where Republicans are in danger of losing.

            "To the extent the debt limit reminds voters of that," he adds, "it's not a good thing.'"

            In modern times, responsibility for raising the Treasury Department's limit on borrowing has been the price of being the party in power, and Republicans have it all-the White House, the House and the Senate. The alternative would be an unprecedented and unimaginable U.S. default.

            "It is necessary to 'preserve the full faith and credit of the federal government," Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, an Iowa Re­publican, said during debate.

            "Getting the debt limit done today was a positive thing," said Treasury Secretary John Snow. "And the way it was done was a positive thing. I want to commend those who made that possible, Bill Frist and others.

            But congressional Democrats were free to vote "no" en masse, and they did, just as Republicans did when they were in the minority. In the Senate's 52-48 vote yesterday, all 44 Democrats and Independent Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont voted against lifting the debt limit; once passage was assured, three Republicans were free to join them without tipping the result. Two of the three Sen. Burns and Sen. John Ensign of Nevada-are up for re-election.

            Predictably, the minority jabs the majority for the fiscal jam that made the vote necessary. "Any objective analysis of our country's fiscal history would have to conclude this administration and this rubber-stamping Republican Congress are the most fiscally irresponsible in the history of our country," said Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada.

            The House doesn't vote directly on a debt-limit increase. When Republican leaders took control 11 years ago, they disavowed many Democratic-sponsored rules but not the one that makes approval of a higher debt limit automatic when the chamber passes the year's budget resolution. In this case, the House did so last year. The Senate put off its vote until Treasury Secretary Snow said the government could delay no longer.

            Since at least the Reagan administration, debt-limit votes have spawned parallel action on budget-process reforms, which don't reduce deficits themselves, but promise future austerity-and, politicians hope, distract voters' attention from the debt. This year was no differ­ent. "That's why you see Republicans jumping out now on the line-item veto,"

says Scott Reed, a Republican who managed Robert Dole's 1996 presidential campaign.

            Yesterday, Mr. Bush had lawmakers to the White House to discuss a variation on a line-item veto to replace one struck down by the Supreme Court several years ago for violating Congress's spending powers. (That earlier line-item measure was passed in a debt-limit debate in the late 1990s.) Among the attendees were Sen. Santorum and Rhode Island's liberal Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee, two of the most vulnerable senators up for re-election. The senate leader,Mr. Frist, in a nod to conservatives to pass the debt limit, agreed to a week of Senate debate before August on budget-process reform.

            Mr. Chafee is among Republican incumbents threatened in party primaries by disgruntled conservatives. His Republican foe, Stephen Laffey, the mayor of Cranston, R.I., said in an email: "It's an embarrassment when members of Congress from both parties team up to fund 6,000 pork projects from one highway bill, and then turn around and say we have to impose further debt on the taxpayers. "

            Mr. Laffey offers no specifics for reducing the costs that really are driving annual deficits-entitlement benefits for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, along with defense-though he doesn't rule out cuts. Mr. Laffey does rule out tax increases.

            This week, as in years past, Sen. Chafee joined Democrats in unsuccessfully trying to get the White House and Republicans to reinstate Clinton-era pay-as-you-go rules requiring any new spending or tax cuts to be offset by other spending cuts or revenue increases. While conservative groups attack Mr. Chafee, he has won an Economic Patriot Award from the middle-of the-road budget watchdog group, the Concord Coalition.

            If Mr. Chafee survives, he still faces the Democrats' nominee this fall. At a minimum, even., Republicans expect Democrats to pad their minority. Republicans' big fear is "the stay-at" home factor," as Pete Sepp, spokesman for the conservative National Taxpayers Union, puts it.

 

How big is $9 trillion in federal debt?

.           About $30,O0O per U.S. resident

            . At $1 a second, it would   take 284,000 years to payoff

            . Dollar bills laid end-to-end         would circle the globe 34,129 times

.           A string of $20 bills would circle the globe 1,706 times

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