Operation Chaos

How Operation Chaos Caused Obama to Lose Indiana and Vote Shares Everywhere Else

TruthIsAll

The latest media myth is that Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos had no effect on the Indiana primary. Their argument is that the Clinton-Obama (53-47) share of the 10% Republican crossover vote is virtually the same as the (51-49) split in the total vote. This analysis will show that were it not for Operation Chaos, Obama would have won Indiana and very possibly Texas.

Well, at least the bloggers get it.

The media fails to recognize that since March 4, there have been two sets of Republican crossover voters. The first set consists of moderates who were sincerely for Obama. The second set was motivated to vote for Hillary Clinton by Operation Chaos.

Prior to March 4, Obama led the total vote by 50.1-45.7%. Since then, Clinton is leading by 50.8-47.8%.

Prior to March 4 (pre Operation Chaos), Republicans voted in seven primaries. Obama won the Republican vote by 59-28%. He won all 7 primaries by an average 58-37% share. In sharp contrast, post-March 4 Clinton has won Republicans by 57-41%. Obama still won the total average vote by 51-47%, but it would have been 53-45% were it not for Operation Chaos.

Final Exit poll data shows that Operation Chaos has increased the percentage of Republican crossover voters from 6% to 9%. The increase has been almost totally to Clinton's benefit. Of 4 million Clinton voters since March 4, approximately 150,000 have been Republican crossovers due to Operation Chaos.

Republican Share of Democratic Primary Vote: Pre vs. Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)

Final Exit Polls

Pre March 4

Total Share Share of Rep Difference

Rep% HRC OB HRC OB HRC OB

AL 5% 42% 56% 52% 45% 10% -11%

SC 4% 27% 53% 20% 37% -7% -16%

IL 6% 34% 65% 36% 60% 2% -5%

MO 6% 49% 48% 21% 75% -28% 27%

LA 5% 37% 56% 17% 53% -20% -3%

VA 7% 35% 64% 23% 72% -12% 8%

WI 9% 40% 57% 28% 72% -12% 15%

Avg 6% 38% 57% 28% 59% -10% 2%

Post March 4

OH 9% 54% 44% 49% 49% -5% 5%

TX 9% 51% 47% 46% 53% -5% 6%

MS 12% 38% 60% 75% 25% 37% -35%

IN 10% 50.6% 49.4% 53% 47% 3% -3%

NC 5% 42% 56% 61% 32% 19% -24%

Avg 9% 47% 51% 57% 41% 10% -10%

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PARTY ID

Pre March 4

AL HRC OB JE

Dem 82% 40% 58% 1%

Rep 5% 52% 45% 3%

Ind 13% 48% 48% 3%

Total 41.6% 56.1% 1.4%

Dem 73% 28% 57% 14%

Rep 4% 20% 37% 43%

Ind 23% 26% 42% 32%

Total 27.2% 52.8% 19.3%

Dem 79% 36% 63% 1%

Rep 6% 36% 60% 4%

Ind 16% 22% 72% 4%

Total 34.1% 64.9% 1.7%

Dem 73% 50% 47% 2%

Rep 6% 21% 75% 4%

Ind 22% 30% 67% 2%

Total 44.4% 53.6% 2.1%

LA HRC OB

Dem 83% 38% 57%

Rep 5% 17% 53%

Ind 12% 36% 53%

Total 36.7% 56.3%

Dem 70% 38% 62%

Rep 7% 23% 72%

Ind 22% 30% 69%

Total 34.8% 63.6%

Dem 62% 46% 53%

Rep 9% 28% 72%

Ind 28% 33% 64%

Total 40.3% 57.3%

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Party ID

Post March 4 (Operation Chaos)

OH HRC OB

Dem 69% 56% 42%

Rep 9% 49% 49%

Ind 22% 48% 50%

Total 53.6% 44.4%

Dem 66% 53% 46%

Rep 9% 46% 53%

Ind 25% 48% 49%

Total 51.1% 47.4%

Dem 71% 30% 67%

Rep 12% 75% 25%

Ind 17% 43% 53%

Total 37.6% 59.6%

Dem 67% 51% 49%

Rep 10% 53% 47%

Ind 23% 46% 54%

Total 50.1% 49.1%

Dem 76% 39% 60%

Rep 5% 61% 32%

Ind 19% 50% 45%

Total 42.2% 55.8%