Bush Approval Ratings
TruthIsAll
Bush's average Election Day 2004 approval rating was 48.5% (based on 11 national polls). Since 1976, all presidential incumbents with approval below 50% on Election Day have lost their bid for re-election: Ford in ‘76, Carter in ‘80, Bush in ’92. Conversely, all incumbents with greater than 50% approval won re-election: Nixon in ’72, Reagan in ’84, Clinton in ’96. Bush was the only exception in ’04.
There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between Bush’s 2004 monthly approval rating and the national pre-election poll monthly average. The final exit polls were forced to match a fraudulent vote count through the use of inflated Bush approval weightings. Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky used 53% for the Bush approval weighting in both the Final National and the Florida exit polls. In the 7:33pm NEP update, Bush approval was 51%. In addition, Bush vote shares were inflated in the Final – just like they were in the “Voted 2000” and “Location-size” categories.
Adjusting Bush approval to his actual 48.5% national average resulted in the following:
In the Florida Exit Poll, Kerry's share increased from 49.4% to 53.3%.
In the National Exit Poll, posted at 7:33pm on Nov.2, Kerry's share increased from 51.2% to 53.2%.
In the Final National Exit Poll, posted at 1:25pm on Nov.3, Kerry's share increased from 48.5% to 52.3%.
2004 Monthly Trend: Bush 11-poll average approval vs. average National pre-election poll
Poll Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct
Mean
Kerry 40.78 47.80 47.58 46.31 46.86 46.64 47.47 47.40 44.33 47.17
Bush 51.56 46.10 44.83 45.62 44.71 45.71 45.20 45.40 48.28 46.89
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Approval 54.4 49.5 48.8 48.6 45.2 47.0 47.8 48.0 49.1 48.5
Poll/Appr 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.94 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.97
2004 Bush ratings
Date Nwk Fox CNN Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby Mean
Jan-04 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49 54.5
Feb-04 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na 49.7
Mar-04 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na 48.8
Apr-04 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47 48.8
May-04 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42 45.2
Jun-04 na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46 47.0
Jul-04 48 47 47 46 na 45 50 50 48 50 49 48.0
Aug-04 45 51 51 46 48 46 50 51 47 49 44 48.0
Sep-04 48 50 52 46 45 48 50 53 47 54 47 49.1
Oct-04 46 49 46 44 na 49 53 53 49 47 49 48.5
(2,409 respondents)
Bush approval: 53%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 35.0 4 96 0
Approve 18.0 17 82 1
Disapprove 12.0 84 13 3
Strong 35.0 98 1 1
Total 100.0 48.8 50.3 0.9
Approve 53.0 9 91 0
Disapprove 47.0 95 4 1
Total 100.0 49.4 50.1 0.5
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 30.5 4 96 0
Approve 18.0 17 82 1
Disapprove 14.0 84 13 3
Strong 37.5 98 1 1
Total 100.0 52.8 46.2 1.0
Approve 48.5 9 91 0
Disapprove 51.5 95 4 1
Total 100.0 53.3 46.2 0.5
(5666 respondents)
Bush approval: 51%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 32 7 93 0
Approve 19 17 80 3
Disapprove 12 81 16 3
Strong 37 97 2 1
Total 100% 51.1% 47.6% 1.3
Approve 51 11 88 1
Disapprove 49 93 5 2
Total 100% 51.2% 47.3% 1.5%
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 30.5% 7% 93% 0
Approve 18 17 80 3
Disapprove 14 81 16 3
Strong 37.5 97 2 1
Total 100% 52.9% 45.8% 1.3%
Approve 48.5 11 88 1
Disapprove 51.5 93 5 2
Total 100% 53.2% 45.3% 1.5%
(6961 respondents)
Bush approval: 53%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 33% 5% 94% 1%
Approve 20 15 83 2
Disapprove 12 80 18 2
Strong 35 97 2 1
Total 100% 48.2% 50.5% 1.3%
Approve 53 9 90 1
Disapprove 47 93 6 1
Total 100% 48.5% 50.5% 1%
Bush approval: 48.5%
Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other
Strong 30.5% 5% 94% 1%
Approve 18 15 83 2
Disapprove 14 80 18 2
Strong 37.5 97 2 1
Total 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%
Approve 48.5 9 90 1
Disapprove 51.5 93 6 1
Total 100% 52.3% 46.7% 1%
