Michigan Year Republican Democrat Third 1952 1552 1231 1956 1714 1360 1960 1620 1687 1964 1060 2137 1968 1371 1593 332 1972 1962 1459 1976 1894 1697 1980 1915 1662 275 1984 2252 1530 1988 1965 1676 1992 1585 1855 820 1992p 1900 1800 1992^ 2089 1612 1996 1441 1941 327 1996p 2000 1900 Montana Year Republican Democrat Third 1952 157 106 1956 155 116 1960 142 135 1964 113 164 1968 139 114 20 1972 184 120 1976 174 149 1980 207 118 29 1984 232 147 1988 190 169 1992 144 154 107 1992p 180 150 1992^ 211 159 1996 179 167 55 1996p 190 160 Nevada Year Republican Democrat Third 1952 51 32 1956 56 41 1960 52 55 1964 56 79 1968 73 61 20 1972 116 66 1976 101 92 1980 155 67 67 1984 189 92 1988 206 133 1992 171 185 130 1992p 200 175 1992^ 195 113 1996 199 203 44 1996p 220 200 New Hampshire Year Republican Democrat Third 1952 166 107 1956 177 90 1960 158 138 1964 104 182 1968 155 131 11 1972 214 116 1976 186 148 1980 222 109 50 1984 267 120 1988 282 164 1992 200 207 120 1992p 230 200 1992^ 258 148 1996 197 245 48 1996p 250 240 New Jersey Year Republican Democrat Third 1952 1374 1016 1956 1607 850 1960 1363 1385 1964 964 1868 1968 1325 1264 262 1972 1846 1102 1976 1510 1445 1980 1547 1147 235 1984 1934 1261 1988 1741 1318 1992 1304 1361 504 1992p 1600 1350 1992^ 1756 1362 1996 1080 1600 258 1996p 1700 1400 Ohio Year Republican Democrat Third 1952 2100 1600 1956 2263 1440 1960 2218 1944 1964 1471 2498 1968 1791 1701 467 1972 2442 1559 1976 2001 2012 1980 2207 1752 254 1984 2679 1825 1988 2417 1940 1992 1876 1965 1024 1992p 2500 1900 1992^ 2502 1949 1996 1824 2101 471 1996p 2600 2100 Vermont Year Republican Democrat Third 1952 110 43 1956 110 42 1960 98 69 1964 55 108 1968 85 70 5 1972 117 68 1976 100 77 1980 95 82 32 1984 136 96 1988 124 116 1992 86 126 62 1992p 130 125 1992^ 116 107 1996 80 138 31 1996p 140 140 Wisconsin Year Republican Democrat Third 1952 980 622 1956 955 587 1960 895 831 1964 638 1050 1968 810 749 128 1972 989 810 1976 1005 1040 1980 1089 982 161 1984 1199 996 1988 1047 1127 1992 926 1036 543 1992p 1100 1000 1992^ 1096 1123 1996 845 1072 227 1996p 1150 1100 The calculated vote for 1992 (1992^) was obtained as a simple linear progression of the votes over these recent elections in each state. It is surprising how close this estimate is in many of the states. It also approximates the projected vote in most states to a considerable extent, and further strengthens the argument that Perot's pound of flesh was extracted from first Bush's and then Dole's hide. It should also be possible to construct a multi-variate calculation which more precisely estimates the partisan vote nationally and in each state, although that has not been undertaken here. It is important to remember that voting is a dynamic process, so that the projected votes are at best only the roughest indicators of expected vote tallies. They could range higher or lower by considerable amounts depending on short term factors which prevail in any given election. The projected estimates might be best thought of as a sort of equilibrium vote. Nevertheless, even these rather crude estimates demonstrate the basic theses of this essay. In nearly all of these states, the Democrat vote was about where it should have been expected to have been in 1992 and 1996, while the Republican totals were consistently not only much under 'equilibrium' levels, but the 'deficit' can be largely explained by the Perot vote in 1992 and the Perot Effect combined with the Media and Turn-Out Effects in 1996.
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