Basic IS-LM Model (closed
economy, no foreign trade)
The Keynesian Cross Model
shows how an increase in investments spending (i.e., firms buying captal goods) leads to higher income or output. That is, higher investment spending
vertically boosts the aggregate expenditure line, leading to higher equilibrium
GDP. We also know that lower interest
rates promote greater investment spending.
All of that is taken for granted here.
The IS-LM Model brings in the
interest rate into the macroeconomic analysis as an "endogenous"
variable. This basic version ignores
foreign trade.
If we set up a graph with
interest rates on the vertical axis, and GDP or income (Y) on the lower axis, a
downsloping line (upper left to lower right) would
reveal the relationship between interest rates and the level of GDP. The lower the interest rate, the higher the
GDP, because the investment spending which corresponds to low interest rates
stimulates the economy. This is the I-S
curve.
The I-S curve, then, shows the locus of
points for which there is equilibrium in the goods market. It is named that because equilibrium requires
Saving to equal Investment (more broadly, leakages
equal injections). More simply put,
equilibrium requires the demand for goods to be equal to the supply of
goods. Given any particular interest
rate, there is
a unique amount of investment (as could be shown with an investment demand
curve). So for each interest rate there
is a unique GDP (assuming a given consumption pattern, given government spending).
The L-M curve is drawn using
the same type of graph. Interest rate on vertical axis, GDP or income on horizontal. The L-M curve is an uphill line running from
lower left to upper right. It is built
on the idea that, considering the workings of the "money market"
(supply and demand for money), the greater the GDP, the higher will be the
interest rate, other things equal.
Here's why that is expected.
Given a money supply, as set by the Fed, the demand for money determines
the interest rate. The demand for money
curve shifts right or left with changes in GDP (the transactions demand for
money, covered elsewhere in these writings).
So as GDP increases, so does the interest rate.
The L-M curve, then, is the
locus of points for which there is equilibrium in the money market. For every level of GDP there is a
corresponding interest rate.
Putting both IS and LM on the
same graph, we get a uniquely determined GDP and interest rate. This point is given by the intersection of
the two lines. At that point there is
equilibrium in both markets at once That is, based on the demand for
goods, especially due to investment spending, and based on conditions in the
money market, the economy will settle at some level of GDP, with some
particular interest rate in effect for borrowing and lending.
As usual, the idea of equilibrium here implies a balance among the forces at work. The equilibrium point will not unleash forces which would change the GDP or interest rate. Any other point in the space defined by the axes would not be a stable outcome. For example consider a point "due east" of the intersection. Here, the interest rate is not low enough to support the level of investment spending needed for that GDP to exist.