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TOKYO, September 18, 2000--"East
Asia's recovery from the 1997 financial crisis has been remarkable, with
employment and wages rising, poverty falling, and currencies recovering across
the region," said Masahiro
Kawai, Chief Economist for the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific region,
in Tokyo today, where he presented the Bank's new East Asia and Pacific Regional
Brief. "Moreover, the combination of
domestic policy reforms to date and strong global growth have diminished risks
to the recovery." He warned, however,
that "weaknesses remain that could,
if left unattended, make the region susceptible to a downturn."
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| In the latest report on the region, Kawai notes the
positive indicators of recovery: regional growth at 6.9% in 1999 and projected
to exceed that in 2000; employment and labor earnings rising and equaling pre-crisis
levels; foreign investment (excluding China) on the increase; real lending
interest rates at single-digit levels today, and currencies which had fallen as
much as 80 per cent having recovered and being traded within a relatively stable
band for the past year. Poverty levels have fallen, as new jobs have been
created in the post-crisis period.
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"Despite numerous signs of improvement since
the collapse three years ago," Kawai
stated, "East Asia's former crisis
economies are experiencing an uneven and uncertain journey on the road to
economic renewal. No matter how fast the growth rates may be, history suggests
that the poorest will remain vulnerable for years to come. The nature of that
vulnerability is not be the same as that which triggered the 1997 recession--instead,
it has its roots in political instability which is evident across the region, in
job insecurity as change accelerates, and in weakened bank and corporates that
are susceptible to sudden downturns in demand. For that reason, the World Bank
is sending a strong message to East Asia not to let today's positive news
camouflage the underlying weaknesses, nor distract government attention from the
continuing reform effort - as could easily happen, because the recovery has been
remarkable."
The report notes that recovery is being fueled not by speculative investments or short-term foreign borrowing, but by recovery of consumption and exports - benefiting from a buoyant external market - underpinned by continued strong local savings rates. It also notes the impressiveness of the East Asian recovery in comparison with the "lost decade" suffered by Latin America after their crises in the mid-1980s, and states that the region's rapid rebound attests to the resiliency and traditional strengths of the East Asian economies high savings rates; a competitive manufacturing sector; an embrace of open trade opportunities, especially within the region; and flexible labor markets. Kawai cautioned, however, that,
"today's
recovery is at the rebound stage as countries restore previously attained income
levels. To achieve lasting growth," he
said, "governments have to maintain
their focus on dealing with the challenges of public and private debt overhang;
attracting and keeping foreign and domestic investment; fighting corruption and
improving public institutions; and addressing lingering insecurity of poor and
near-poor households." Kawai continued, "the good news is that the East Asian countries can at last return to the medium term development agenda. The World Bank - through lending and policy advice, assistance with capacity building, and working with our partners to increase development effectiveness - remains committed to helping the countries of East Asia meet these challenges, strengthen the gains of recovery, and to secure a safer future for East Asia." |
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