East Asia's Recovery Gathers Force:
But Remaining Weaknesses Could Lead To Downturn

TOKYO, September 18, 2000--"East Asia's recovery from the 1997 financial crisis has been remarkable, with employment and wages rising, poverty falling, and currencies recovering across the region," said Masahiro Kawai, Chief Economist for the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific region, in Tokyo today, where he presented the Bank's new East Asia and Pacific Regional Brief. "Moreover, the combination of domestic policy reforms to date and strong global growth have diminished risks to the recovery." He warned, however, that "weaknesses remain that could, if left unattended, make the region susceptible to a downturn."

 

In the latest report on the region, Kawai notes the positive indicators of recovery: regional growth at 6.9% in 1999 and projected to exceed that in 2000; employment and labor earnings rising and equaling pre-crisis levels; foreign investment (excluding China) on the increase; real lending interest rates at single-digit levels today, and currencies which had fallen as much as 80 per cent having recovered and being traded within a relatively stable band for the past year. Poverty levels have fallen, as new jobs have been created in the post-crisis period.

 

"Despite numerous signs of improvement since the collapse three years ago," Kawai stated, "East Asia's former crisis economies are experiencing an uneven and uncertain journey on the road to economic renewal. No matter how fast the growth rates may be, history suggests that the poorest will remain vulnerable for years to come. The nature of that vulnerability is not be the same as that which triggered the 1997 recession--instead, it has its roots in political instability which is evident across the region, in job insecurity as change accelerates, and in weakened bank and corporates that are susceptible to sudden downturns in demand. For that reason, the World Bank is sending a strong message to East Asia not to let today's positive news camouflage the underlying weaknesses, nor distract government attention from the continuing reform effort - as could easily happen, because the recovery has been remarkable."

The report notes that recovery is being fueled not by speculative investments or short-term foreign borrowing, but by recovery of consumption and exports - benefiting from a buoyant external market - underpinned by continued strong local savings rates. It also notes the impressiveness of the East Asian recovery in comparison with the "lost decade" suffered by Latin America after their crises in the mid-1980s, and states that the region's rapid rebound attests to the resiliency and traditional strengths of the East Asian economies high savings rates; a competitive manufacturing sector; an embrace of open trade opportunities, especially within the region; and flexible labor markets.

Kawai cautioned, however, that, "today's recovery is at the rebound stage as countries restore previously attained income levels. To achieve lasting growth," he said, "governments have to maintain their focus on dealing with the challenges of public and private debt overhang; attracting and keeping foreign and domestic investment; fighting corruption and improving public institutions; and addressing lingering insecurity of poor and near-poor households."

The report notes that, although the risks to recovery have lessened since the beginning of the year, they continue to emanate from slow or imperfect policy initiatives and from an always-possible global or regional downturn. In addition, the region, burdened with a crisis legacy of heavy debt, skittish investors, and household insecurity, is dependent on the "virtuous cycle" that growth has unleashed. Explains Kawai, "If demand should suddenly collapse, companies that can now pay their debt and are beginning to invest could quickly go under. Governments that depend on rebounding revenues to service debt might suddenly have to cut back on social or other important spending. Investors--domestic and foreign--who have emerged from the crisis much more fleet-footed might exit. Finally, the poor and near-poor, having seen their incomes fall already, may be less patient with governments that ask them to sacrifice yet more. For these reasons," he concludes, "maintaining the pace of growth well into the future is not only desirable it is essential."

Kawai continued, "the good news is that the East Asian countries can at last return to the medium term development agenda. The World Bank - through lending and policy advice, assistance with capacity building, and working with our partners to increase development effectiveness - remains committed to helping the countries of East Asia meet these challenges, strengthen the gains of recovery, and to secure a safer future for East Asia."

Click here to access the full report of Thailand
(PDF format)

Go back to the Main Page

Download from World Bank: 19/09/43 22:43

Hosted by www.Geocities.ws

1