Somewhere, sometime during this year, so population scientists tell us, we will be able to welcome the six billionth human being on earth. Nobody knows exactly, when this figure will be reached, since census data are sketchy and unreliable in many parts of the world. So it's nothing more than a projection, but an interesting figure nevertheless. 12 years ago, in July 1987, the United Nations had officially greeted the arrival of the five billionth citizen to our world. At that time, UN estimates were that by the year 2000, world population would stand at about 6.25 billion people. Reality has proven to be more favorable than that prognosis: population growth has slowed down considerably during the last decade. The growth rate is now 1.33 per cent or 78 million people per year, and although figures will continue to go up at least during the first half of the next century, the point of stabilisation may be reached earlier than expected. Latest UN projections for the year 2050 speak of 8.9 billion people instead of the 9.8 billion predicted in 1994.

The reasons for the success achieved in slowing population growth lie in the importance attached to family planning and reproductive health by governments and NGOs in developing countries as well as the general advances made in education, health services, and the emancipation of women. It is remarkable how quickly fertility ญ the average number of children born by each woman ญ has fallen in most countries. In more than 60 countries, the fertility rate is now 2.1 children per woman or below  which means that the population in those countries is stagnant or even geting smaller. World average is now 2.7 children per woman; even in Africa, fertility has fallen from 6.6 to 5.1 children per woman within a quarter of a century. The majority of women now want to limit the number of children to be able to bring them up better, and more couples than ever have the means and knowledge to control their family size. The world population conference in Cairo in 1994 gave a further push for population policies which aim at sustainable development and a balance between population figures and resources.

However, these positive developments should not be a cause for exaggerated self-gratulations. Not all is well after Cairo; in fact, most of the rich industrial states who pledged to generously support the developing countries in the Cairo Plan of Action are in no way living up to their obligations. Instead of 5.7 billion dollars in international aid, only 1.4 billion annually are actually forthcoming. Development aid from OECD countries has fallen significantly since 1994. Only the Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands  the usual suspects ญ are paying their share of the costs. According to figures published by the German aid ministry (BMZ), Germany also met its commitments undertaken in Cairo of providing DM 450 million per annum for reproductive health in its bilateral and multilateral development budget. Lack of funds could jeopardise the efforts of Third World governments to provide adequate family planning and health services to their populations. This may lead to setbacks in achieving the goals of the Cairo conference. This summer, the UN will hold a Special Session of the General Assembly to review "Cairo + 5" to discuss possible action to give new momentum to the Cairo process. But although developing countries are shouldering two-thirds of the burden for population-related activities ญ 7.5 billion dollars per year ญ this is clearly not sufficient to meet the demand.

Other clouds overshadow the positive balance of this decade. The financial and economic crises in Southeast Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe led to serious disruptions of social services in the affected countries. Poverty is rising again at dramatic speed in countries like Indonesia or Thailand which had made spectacular advances in population control during the decades of economic boom. If poverty and the lack of health and education services are linked to high fertility levels ญ as many population scientists believe ญ the fallout from the crises could result in a reversal for population successes.

A threat of a different nature is looming large over parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America: the effect of the AIDS epidemic on demographic development. At least 40 million people worldwide are infected with HIV, and many of them will die of the deadly disease within the next ten years. HIV-infected people are mostly young and economically active persons, and their illness and possible death will change the demographic parametres. More than 1 billion people worldwide are in the critical age group between 15 and 24 in which half of all HIV cases occur, but many of them are not reached by information about AIDS prevention, and social and sexual habits, social disruptions through wars or migration, and poverty levels make it more difficult than in industrial countries to get the epidemic under control. Already now, life expectancy is falling drastically in parts of the world.

For all these reasons, the future development of world population is difficult to predict. This should not stop us from welcoming "Baby Six Billion" among our midst. The birth of a new human being should always be a cause of joy and not of fear. The world is large enough and its resources sufficient ญ if sensibly managed and shared among all people ญ to allow a life in dignity and free from deprivation for all of us. After all, the much discussed "carrying capacity" of the world is a relative notion, depending entirely on the kind of lifestyle we adopt for ourselves. Human ingenuity is capable of finding suitable ways to protect our life-sustaining resources such as water, soil, and air. We just have to muster the political will to apply our knowledge and finances to this goal.

Six billion people are, therefore, not a threat to our survival provided we all change our development models and aspire not to waste and over-consumption but to true sustainability.