Nor has Thailand's recovery lifted the spirits of much of the urban-based middle class. Take 35-year-old Tavicha Kaewnukulkij. During the boom years, she earned over 30,000 baht a month as an investment manager at a Bangkok-based finance company. Slipping in and out of the informal economy and unemployment over the past three years, she has recently settled into a new administrative job in a media company, earning a mere 25% of her past salary. To cover costs, she dips into her savings, which are dwindling fast.

"Most people are earning less and working harder," says Tavicha, who gives low marks to Premier Chuan Leekpai's Democrat-led coalition: "I don't think Chuan's government has really solved the country's problems."

Prapan and Tavicha's grievances are not isolated. So far, Thailand's economic recovery has been very uneven, buoying the fortunes of only a minority of the population. Although the Bank of Thailand and most international investment houses forecast that the economy will grow between 4% and 5% this year, many areas of the economy are still shrinking. According to the Funds for Research Office, a Bangkok-based think-tank, the number of Thais suffering extreme poverty increased by 1.5 million as a result of the crisis; the World Bank estimates that around 8 million Thais (equivalent to almost 13% of the population) are now living on less than $2 a day. "The government's pronouncements of economic recovery still don't ring with the local people," says Supavud Saicheua, executive vice-president at Merrill Lynch in Bangkok. "The Democrats continue to be hurt by the perception they have only helped rich bankers," he adds.

That perception is increasingly bad news for the Democrats. With a general election due within a matter of months, the party has been campaigning on the argument that its economic prescriptions have been a success. But the realization that most of the government's total debt--which looks set to swell to over 3 trillion baht, or 63% of GDP, by 2001--will have to be shouldered by the general population, either through increased taxes or higher inflation, is starting to smart. Meanwhile, a recent intra-government tussle between the central bank and Ministry of Finance over how to deal with losses at the Financial Institution Development Fund has eroded foreign investors' confidence in both the baht and the Bangkok bourse, which hit 12- and 15-month lows respectively in late May.

On the ground, hard times will likely continue for the average Thai. Real wages continue to spiral downward in construction, commerce, services and agriculture, which account for nearly 82% of the country's workforce. And although government data show unemployment falling to 4.7% from 5.2%, the statistics miss the point that many Thais have dropped out of the workforce altogether, abandoning their futile quest for employment, according to the World Bank.

"Even if the economy continues to grow, it will still take four or more years to restore pre-crisis standards of living," says Jayasankar Shivakumar, Thailand country manager for the World Bank. "That's a sobering thought--it means the average person is still suffering from the impact of the crisis."

Many of the jobs that have been created pay less than before the crisis. "Unemployment may be down, but the total wage bill is not up," says Merrill Lynch's Supavud, adding: "Thailand has lost many white-collar jobs for semi-skilled manufacturing ones." Like most of recovering Asia, Thailand's economic revival has been export driven, most prominently in areas led by multinationals, such as electronics and cars. Combined, though, these sectors employ less than 3% of Thailand's workforce. Many companies have been cutting costs rather than expanding operations, particularly in the financial sector; the result is more lay-offs, not jobs.

And with the average level of debt among Thais now standing at over five times annual income, hopes that consumers can sustain the recovery once fiscal-stimulus measures are pared back next year seem dim. Supavud, citing lower revenue-collection figures for value-added tax, says consumer confidence has been "slashed" in recent months. Recent up-ticks in consumption growth have been narrowly confined to Bangkok-based new-vehicle purchases, suggesting that only the upper-crust are feeling emboldened to spend more.