Dustin Stevens-Baier
Comp 569
Assignment #2
1. Define the domain of your choosing and list the rules.
I decided to simulate a football game. I created a list of rules that apply some binary facts as well as some probability.
Rules:
Rule 1: Yards to TD <=1 Then Run Play
Rule 2: Yards to 1st down <=3 Then Run Play
Rule 3: Yards to 1st down >= 5 and 2nd or 3rd down Pass Play
Rule 4: 1st down, yards to 1st down < = 10 then 65% run play
Rule 5: 1st down, yards to 1st down < = 10 then 30% pass play
Rule 6: 1st down, yards to 1st down < = 10 then 5% play action
Rule 7: 2nd down and yards to TD < 3 Then play action
Rule 8: 2nd down yards till 1st down < 5 then 85% run play
Rule 9: 2nd down yards till 1st down < 5 then 10% pass play
Rule 10: 2nd down yards till 1st down < 5 then 5% play action
Rule 11: 3rd down yards till 1st <5 then 20% run play
Rule 12: 3rd down yards till 1st <5 then 80% pass play
Rule 13: 1st yards to go > 10 then Pass play
Rule 14: 2nd or 3rd yards to go > 5 then pass play.
Rule 15: 4th down punt
Rule 16: 4th down time < 2 score computer score > player score then pass play
2. Sketch the design of the system (block-level design, showing the inference process).
3. Explain how your system decides which rules are triggered on any one cycle, and how it picks a particular rule to fire (i.e.: explain how it handles conflict resolution).
The cycle first gets input from the user for yards till first down, yards till TD, score and down and time.
The thing that matters first is wether or not it is 4th down and then how much time is left. the system takes what down it is and then from there checks the rules. What down it is always wins.
The next thing that over rules are the yards to TD and yards to 1st down when they are small amounts.
4. Explain whether the "facts" in your system are binary (assigned only true or false) -- are there any variations? (fuzziness? confidence factors? probability?).
There are some facts that are binary and some that are based off of probability. Specifically the lower yardage and 4th down rules are binary and the higher yardage as well. the stuff in the middle is what is based off of probability.
5. Explain how any given rule might have exceptions (that is, situations where the rule is incorrect). More generally, explain the major limitations of your system.
Almost all the rules could be wrong in this section becuase the defense can always predict what is going to happen and stop it. Even if the play should work well, it depends on so many other factors, like team skill, execution etc.. This system is so dependant on what the defense will do and can do as well as the play being run right and the right pass play being called etc.. that it is really just a guidline.