Mugabe's Swan Song?
by S. Predrag
Thursday, June 29, 2000
Comments: 35 posts

HARARE, Zimbabwe -- The elections are over and the votes are in -- Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's party, ZANU (PF), will remain in power in Zimbabwe. Mugabe has headed the country ever since independence in April 1980, but most political analysts believe that this weekend's elections may have signaled the beginning of the swan song for the 76-year-old African leader who used to enjoy autocratic rule surrounded by "yes men," but now sees his power threatened.

On Tuesday in Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, the Registrar General officially announced that ZANU (PF) had won 62 parliamentary seats, five more seats than its main opponent, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). This was a heavy blow for Mugabe's ruling party, which previously held 147 out of 150 seats. In fact, after the final count, the opposition had gained more individual votes than ZANU (PF), making it the moral victor.

Mugabe addressed the nation on Tuesday evening on radio and TV, saying that he looks forward to working with the new parliament and hopes that it will contribute in a positive way to national, race, and ethnic unity and development.

"The results are out, and they are binding for all of us, the winners and losers," said Mugabe, adding that "these elections sent a strong message to the world that we cherish our democratic values and rights."

While criticizing some foreign observers, especially "those with a Victorian background ... who thought that their mission was to pacify the natives," the Zimbabwean president congratulated his citizens for "the peaceful elections ... which taught a lesson to the world."

Mugabe did not mention the opposition, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), by name, nor did he say what his government was planning to do regarding the controversial issue of illegally occupied white-owned farms, which had helped make this election so close in the first place. However, some ZANU (PF) high officials confirmed on Wednesday that the land redistribution will continue, if not accelerate, because "we got the people's mandate."

Opposition's moral victory

"Zimbabwe will never be the same again," maintained the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, in Tuesday's press conference in Harare.

"There is no doubt in my mind that -- without the subversion -- we would have easily won this election," he added, accusing the ruling party of unprecedented political violence and intimidation in the rural areas in the run-up to the elections.

Tsvangirai's statement was echoed by some local analysts. Alfred Nhema, a professor at the University of Zimbabwe, claimed that, "It will never be business as usual in Zimbabwe. ... The people earlier had no choice while these elections showed the existence of a valuable opposition." And the head of the European Union observers' mission, former Swedish Minister Pierre Schori, claimed that "the term 'free and fair' is not applicable in these elections."

The MDC, as expected, scored well in towns and cities because the urban population is currently experiencing the worst consequences of high inflation rates (over 70% annually), massive unemployment (more than 50%) and economic uncertainty. It won all the constituencies in Harare and Bulawayo, the second largest city in the country.

The ruling party offset those wins in the rural constituencies where the worst intimidation prior to the elections occurred and where, oftentimes, opposition candidates were prevented from campaigning.

Land and race cards

In this African country of 12.5 million blacks (white Zimbabweans constitute less than 1% of the total population), Mugabe's party used the land and race issues months ahead of the elections, aiming to attract the rural vote.

It all started in February of this year when Mugabe's government lost a crucial referendum on a constitution draft, which envisaged, among other things, that the government could acquire white-owned farms without paying any compensation and redistribute it to landless blacks. It was a rude awakening for Mugabe and ZANU (PF), who had planned to use the land issue as their trump card for the elections, but this shock did not last long. They immediately shifted their strategy by unleashing war veterans to help illegally occupy some 1,500 white-owned farms. These farms, incidentally, feed millions of people and bring in much-needed hard currency with exports of more than 200 millions kilograms of high-quality tobacco each year.

Most people, including the local opposition, agree that the long-standing land injustices in Zimbabwe need to be addressed. In Zimbabwe, 4,500 white farmers (predominantly of British origin) own 12 million hectares of the best arable land, while millions of blacks are left to farm just 16 million hectares. However, the opposition did not agree with Mugabe that farm seizures were the best way to solve the problem. Neither did the rest of the world. Countries around the world quickly condemned the method and timing of the illegal land grab.

"Mugabe and his cronies are playing dangerous games with the land and race cards just to stay in power ... by all means, at any cost ... although they are responsible for the worst social and economic hardships since independence," the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, told me prior to the elections.

He insisted that "the land issue was misused to win votes in rural areas because he (Mugabe) realized that he is losing influence in Harare and other towns."

The MDC leader said that if the opposition won the elections, "we'll form a national commission which will be depoliticized and will deal with the land issue in a transparent, democratic and legal way." That did not happen, however, and now some are crying foul.

The battle for rural votes

Long-time observers maintain that Zimbabwe has never witnessed such a violent election campaign which, they say, is due to the fact that the ruling party was faced with a strong opposition challenge for the first time. "ZANU (PF) thugs virtually sealed off most rural areas from other poll contenders through a heightened campaign of violence, thus making it impossible for both the rural populace, which constitutes 70% of the population, and farm workers to cast their ballots freely," commented an independent weekly, The Financial Gazette.

The war veterans' leader, Dr Chenjerai Hunzvi, blatantly told foreign observers, "We do not need your recognition of our elections ... we will fight to make sure that Mugabe remains in power by any means necessary."

Hunzvi, nicknamed Hitler, at first refused to give foreign observers permission to visit the occupied farms, explaining that they were not allowed to interfere in politics as the land issue was a political issue. Later, the war veteran softened his stand and said, "If you want to visit (the farms) -- you are welcome to do so ... but just don't speak to the workers ... because the land is a separate issue and has nothing to do with this election."

It is believed that the promise of land as well as a violent intimidation campaign paid off for the ruling party that scored most of their wins in rural areas, despite the opposition's pre-election warnings that such tactics would backfire.

Mugabe and Pandora's box

Now that the voters have had a chance to go to the polls and Mugabe's power has been challenged, focus will return to the farm issue.

South African President Thabo Mbeki is one of the first African leaders to sense the possible dangerous repercussions of allowing the illegal occupation of white-owned farms. According to well-informed sources, Mbeki tried to reason with Mugabe to stop the political violence and occupation of farms. The South African president also insisted that the United Kingdom was obliged to finance the land redistribution program in Zimbabwe.

South Africa, which elected its first democratic government only six years ago, is feeling threatened by the possible spillover of the Zimbabwean land problem into South Africa, as are Namibia, Kenya and several other African countries.

Mbeki's government insists that the land issue will not be "solved" by a land grab from white owners, but through a land commission that would buy the land and redistribute it to landless blacks. The government in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, has officially asked white landowners to voluntarily give up "some of their land," while in Kenya some illegal occupations of white-owned farms have already started.

It remains to be seen if Mugabe will eventually try to solve the land issue by more democratic and legal means or if he will continue with his land grab as promised in his pre-election campaign. If this weekend's elections offer any clues, don't bet on the former.

S. Predrag is a journalist with more than 25 years of professional experience,presently based and accredited in Harare, Zimbabwe. His e-mail address is [email protected].

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