With the NFL draft approaching in April and free agent migration in full swing, it's time again to consider the approaches the league takes in evaluating talent. Every year, the league farms through the ranks of college football to find the next big stars. Last year's lousiest teams get the first crack at these newbies, investing huge sums of money in the players they plan to resurrect their franchise around. Yet, more often than not, the players picked early in the draft pocket their $10 million plus signing bonusses and quickly fizzle out, while players picked almost as afterthoughts become franchise cornerstones. We remember the names. Ryan Leaf and Akilli Smith were the saviors of their franchises while Tom Brady and Jake Delhomme were, at best, competent backups who wouldn't screw things up too badly if a team was ever in such dire straights that they had to play. Joe Montana and Dan Marino were seriously flawed quarterbacks, according to draft scouting reports. What is wrong with this system?

The problem is that the gap between the caliber of college football and professional football is wide and growing. A player who shows great ability against college caliber opposition may be quite overwhelmed against the pros. Similarly, a player may underwhelm in the restrictive and simplistic college game but excel at the professional level. It's obvious, but many still miss it. Being good in college does not mean you will be good in the pros, does it Steve Spurrier?

It's amazing when you look back over the past several Super Bowls and look at the heroes. Terrell Davis, Tom Brady, and Trent Dilfer (3 Super Bowl MVPs and 5 Lombardi trophies between them) were all 6th round draft picks. Brad Johnson was a 9th round pick. Jake Delhomme and Kurt Warner were not even drafted. What of all the recent 1st round quarterbacks? McNabb and Manning have had considerable success. The rest, well, for those that remain in the league, things could get better for them.

What makes for a successful player? Is it merely great physical skills? No. Many great players didn't even have great skills. What makes a player great is their ability to assimilate the intellectual requirements of their positions. For a quarterback, it is far more important to be able to read a defense and spot the holes than to have a cannon for an arm, bruising the defenders who intercept the pass thrown into triple coverage. Joe Montana and Tom Brady were both characterized as having weak arms. Fine. Both played in offensive systems that did not require great arms. Did that lack of arm strength detract from their careers? Maybe it took a little more effort to lift all those Lombardi trophies, but that is all.

For a linebacker, it is more important to read the offense's plays and to see where the running back will be. Who cares how fast you run the 40 at the Combine if you can consistently read the plays and put yourself in front of the running back and bring him down?

So, intelligence and a good system can more than make up for lesser physical skills. But how are players evaluated? On their physical skills. Leaf and Smith had great arm strength. They could throw very hard and very far. They just couldn't hit anything.

Clearly, the college level of football simply does not give an adequate picture of a player's mental skills. Teams who invest large sums of money into early draft picks are more often than not burned. What, then, is the answer? The NFL needs to build a league to bridge the quality gap between the NFL and NCAA. The NFL already has the European league. Is it a coincidence that players like Warner, Delhomme, and Jon Kitna all played over there? These are players that might well have never seen the field but for the opportunity to develop and show they could cross over.

How many other Jake Delhommes over the years have fallen through the cracks, playing on the scout team in obscurity, while the Ryan Leafs of the world pocket the big signing bonusses and set their teams back 3 or 4 years? Without a vastly improved system to evaluate and recruit talent, this will just continue.

Last updated 03/11/2004 03:24 PM