NFL 2004, Very Early Predictions

by Dr. Scott E. Aaron, © 2004

For football fans like myself, this is the darkest time of the year. Training camp is still a month away, and the actual season more than two. The past season is a fading memory as teams breakup and reform with new rosters. Even the draft is past. In such emptiness, it's time to start prognosticating on what will happen come September.

Before getting into each division, I must disclose that I am a big fan of the Steelers, Packers, and Patriots.

AFC East

The division comes down to New England and Buffalo. The Patriots last year won their second Super Bowl in three years. Clearly, then, they must be considered an early front runner for the division title. The Pats have finally acquired a big-time running back in Corey Dillon. The passing game remains intact from last year's 14-2 team. There have been some talent losses, though. Losing Ted Washington isn't that big a deal, because of his age and because he missed much of last season anyway. The big loss will be Damien Woody at center. New England doesn't rely heavily on a running game, though with Dillon it should be a bigger part of the game plan. But the offensive line is key to any offense, and losing the center can really disrupt it.

Buffalo has a considerable amount of talent on both offense and defense, enough to be one of the top teams in the conference. Last year's misery leaves a big question mark over the team, but they easily have more talent than New England and should make a strong run at the title.

I've never been a big fan of Miami. Only when the rest of the division is exceptionally week, which it often has been over the last decade, can the Dolphins survive their traditional December swoon. With the worst passing game in the division (though the best running game), it's hard to see them overcoming the dominance of New England and Buffalo.

AFC North

This will again be the weakest division in the league. Last year, only Baltimore and Cincinnati had anything approaching respectability. That will likely repeat this year. Baltimore will continue its never-ending quest for a capable quarterback to compliment it's dominant running game. Given that no team in the division is terribly familiar with the end zone themselves, Baltimore's low scoring approach, coupled with a stifling defense, will deliver another division title.

The Bengals will continue their resurgence under Marvin Lewis. I was very critical last year of Cincinnati's decision to draft Carson Palmer. Kitna had delivered a solid season in 2002, and there were pressing needs on a pathetic team. (Imagine Terrell Suggs, now in Baltimore, playing in Cincinnati.) Now, the Bengals must pay the price by demoting Kitna, who had better numbers than Tom Brady last year, and going with an untried first-time starter. The best case scenario is that Palmer struggles early getting used to the pro game, adjusts by mid-season, and starts to play solid football for the last 4-6 weeks of the season. Unfortunately by then, his struggles in the earlier part of the season will have created enough lossses to continue the Bengal streak of non-winning seasons, though they would be well-positioned for a strong 2005. The worst case scenario, of course, is that Palmer decided to emulate Akili Smith.

Like Buffalo, Pittsburgh mysteriously underachieved in 2003, finishing with a dismal 6-10 record. While I can't explain the collapse, they haven't done much to address their problems, so the Steelers will likely not contend for the title. On the other hand, the division is so weak that anyone could take it.

AFC West

This division clearly belongs to Kansas City and Denver. Last year, Denver was the better team when quarterback Jake Plummer was the starter. This offseason, the Broncos have improved their defense and kept their offense largely together. Kansas City has the better offense, but last year had an inept defense. The talent is there for the Chiefs, and now they have proven defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham to run the show. Expect a greatly improved Chief defense to go with another dominant offense. Choosing between these two teams is a real toss-up, but I will go with Kansas City.

Oakland continues to bring in older players. Acquiring players like Warren Sapp and Ted Washington brings experience, to an already experienced unit. These players, once great, are well past their primes and will not help against younger, dominant division rivals like the Chiefs. The best move was acquiring Kerry Collins to be their starting quarterback for the next several years, though probably not this one.

AFC South

Like the West, this division bifricated last year into two top teams (Indianapolis and Tennessee), and two forgettable teams (Jacksonville and Houston). The Colts are one of the best teams in the conference, behind the best quarterback in the game. They will easily defend their division title this year. The Titans have had a solid run over the last five years, reaching the conference title game twice and the Super Bowl once. The team, however, is getting older and is gradually hemorrhaging their talent base. In this day and age, teams only get so many cracks at the title, and the Titans have had theirs.

The interesting teams in this division are the lesser ones. Jacksonville ended 2003 strongly, which positions them well for a strong 2004. They have talent on both sides of the ball, including an exciting young quarterback, and are well coached. Houston has managed their personnel exceedingly well since entering the league and also field a young, talented team with solid coaching. Look for the Jaguars to finish a surprising second in the division, with new and old Houston battling for the third spot.

NFC East

This is another tough division to pick. Philadelphia has dominated the division for three years, reaching the NFC conference title game each time. On my theory that a team only gets so many cracks, I have to pick against Philadelphia for 2004. I am growing in my admiration for Donovan McNabb, but I don't see that he has the weapons around him to be a truly strong team. Yes, they added a good reciever in Owens, but that's about it. The loss of Duce Staley could end up being more painful than originally thought. Having a running back by committee approach does not mean the backs are interchangable. In 2002, the Steelers had a committee approach between Bettis and Zeroue. In 2003, they tried to change to just Amos, and their running game fell apart. Are the remaining backs in Philly ready to step up the next level? I don't know. On the defensive side, there has been a steady erosion of talent for the past few years. This is becoming critical.

So, if the Eagles are out, who will take the division? Every team in the division has the potential to win it, and every team is overflowing with question marks. Philly's have already been enumerated. The Giants are aging and will likely start the season with a quarterback who has won two league MVP awards, but no one is sure he can play anymore. Dallas has strong coaching and a solid defense, but will have a rookie at running back, uncertainty at quarterback between underwhelming talent, and a questionable offensive line. The Redskins have a Hall of Fame coach, but a recent history of losing and underachieving. They will have a new, aging quarterback, and a new running back. The offensive line will have a great coach, but the talent from last year's sieve will still be on the field.

In the end, I think I will go with Dallas. They made the playoffs last year and are therefore the safe pick to supplant Philadelphia.

NFC North

There was a time when this was the best, toughest division in the NFL. Those days are long gone. The North division in both conferences is the weakest of each. In 2003, the Vikings got off to a quick start, but ended up at 9-7 on a loss on the last play of the last game of the season. Let me repeat that. The last play of the last game of the season, to one of the worst teams in the league! (Remember, I'm a Packer fan.) Truth be told, the Vikings are the most talented team in the division. I have long felt their problem has been attitude rather than ability. This was a team thinking about wrapping up a division title at the midpoint of last season. This was a team that lost to the teams with the top three spots in the 2004 draft (San Diego, Oakland, Arizona), but beat the Chiefs, and the Packers at Lambeau. If they can learn to curb the attitude and play the weak teams as strongly as the good teams, the Vikings will take the division.

The Packers? Well, they were up and down much of last season, until Favre's outburst of dominance in December. Brett is getting older and the inevitable decline has begun. 2003 was their last shot at the Super Bowl with Favre. They no longer have the tools to overcome the Vikings, though if Minnesota falters again, Green Bay will be there to sneak in.

Watch out for Detroit. The franchise has been struggling for a while now, but they are accumulating some talent, and Mariucci is an underrated coach. With Harrington improving at quarterback and two solid, young recievers for him to throw to, they could start making some noise in the North this year, though I think they are still one year away.

NFC West

This is a division long dominated by San Francisco, and for the last few years St. Louis. The 49ers were once the best run team in the league. They are rapidly becoming the worst, eliminating anyone in the coaching staff or roster with anything resembling talent. Bay Area fans, prepare yourselves. Your team could well end up in fourth place this year.

Arizona is getting better, especially if McCown is as good as Dennis Green thinks he is. But going with a very aged Emmitt Smith as the starting running back does not bode well for the Cardinal ground attack.

As in 2003, this division comes down to Seattle and St. Louis. I have mentioned my theory a couple of times that a team only gets so many shots. This implies that the Rams are going down. The team is getting older. Marshall Faulk is not what he once was. Marc Bulger wins regular season games, but he will not make one forget Kurt Warner in his prime. Losing Grant Wistrom from the field and Lovie Smith from the coaching booth will hurt the Ram defense, a very underappreciated component of their Super Bowl seasons.

The Seahawks have finally gotten their stuff together under Mike Holmgren. They have one of the best offenses in the league, and an improving defense. They should be able to finish off a weakening Ram team this year and win the division.

NFC South

This is Carolina's division. I don't see much competition for the defending NFC champions. New Orleans just never seems to go anywhere. Tampa is in transition from Tony Dungy's powerhouse team to a more Gruden-friendly version. With the talent they have lost this offseason, a weak recieving core, a suspended running back, and a strong quarterback who has to feel extremely insecure about his job, it is difficult to see the Bucs matching their 7-9 performance in 2003.

The only team that could possibly give the Panthers a challenge is Atlanta. I know I'm in the minority here, but the jury is still out on Michael Vick. I know he had a great season in 2002 running the ball, when he lead the team to a surprising playoff appearance. But he's a quarterback, not a running back. As a passer, his 2002 performance was quite ordinary. He is not surrounded by great talent either at running back or reciever.

Super Bowl

It's far too hard to predict a Super Bowl at this point. Instead, I'll pick four teams from each conference that I think has the best chance of winning their conferences.

AFC: New England, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Denver
The Pats have proven to be a quite formidable team. Not only did they win the Super Bowl last year, they ran off 15 straight victories in a tough schedule, beat three of the best teams in the AFC twice (Indy, Tennessee, Miami), and beat some NFC playoff teams to boot. Clearly they are the team to beat. But Carolina proved they can be beaten, and the Colts, Chiefs, and Broncos all should have offenses to challenge the Patriot stout defense.

NFC: Seattle, Carolina, Minnesota, Dallas
It's hard to pick four top teams in the NFC. There aren't that many good teams in the NFC. So Dallas makes the list just because I predict them to win their division. The Panthers are clearly the experienced team, with a well-rounded offense and solid defense. I see the conference coming down to the Panthers and Seahawks, with the Vikings on the outside. (They still don't have a defense.)

Last updated 06/24/2004 02:55 PM

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