Doctor Dosage’s Weekly Kentucky Derby Examination

Doctor Dosage’s Weekly Kentucky Derby Examination…

[October 8, 2001 – October 14, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had DANTHEBLUEGRASSMAN run second in MdnSW going a mile at Santa Anita. While he has a questionable Dosage Index at 3.63, he does posses two points in both Solid and Professional categories. Interesting possibility if he breaks through next time.

Baffert had GAME SET MATCH drop in for $40,000 claiming and still get beat.

Baffert had HAWK’S TOP GUN run fifth on the Turf. Nothing encouraging there.

Baffert had MOUNTAIN RAGE run second on the Turf going 8 panels in the Pinjara Stakes at Santa Anita. Potential to be a Derby Trail runner.

Lukas had CHEROKEE TRAIL run 4^th in MdnSW going 7 furlongs at Belmont. Another Lukas son of SEATTLE SLEW yet to live up to his pedigree.

Zito had FATHER STEVE break his maiden by a nose going 7 furlongs at Belmont. Hard to believe but at this point this son of PULPIT might be Zito’s best shot at a Triple Crown horse.

Zito had LOADED SPRINGS run dead last in Maiden 50,000 claiming. Dud here.

Zito had OUR SONG run third in MdnSW at Belmont going 1 1/16. Improving to the winner circle next time would shoot this one to the top of Zito’s Juvenile class.

Zito had WINDWARD PASSAGE run third in MdnSW routing at Keenland. Son of CAPTAIN BODGET needs to move forward now.

BOOKLET won the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes over one mile and one sixteenth by over four lengths to boost his bankroll to nearly $340K.

[October 1, 2001 – October 7, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had OFFICER walk his way to another win. This time at Belmont. He looks to be a lock in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Great, since he will never win the Derby. If he doesn’t fall off the Derby Trail, he could lead to a nice payoff next year.

Baffert had HEZGOTANOTHERGEAR run fifth in MdnSW at SA. This guy has run out of chances to be a Derby stud.

Baffert had RELENTLESS SELLER run 3^rd in MdnSW at SA. Dosage Index of 4.78 puts this one unlikely for very far on the Derby trail.

Lukas had JUMP START take his turn as runner up to OFFICER. Son of A.P. INDY, and top of the list for a few weeks now ran good enough to hold his spot. As time marches on he has a chance to only get better if his sire passes on his stoutness.

Lukas had GOLD DOLLAR get drilled in the Lanes’ End Breeders’ Futurity GR2 at Keenland. Son of SEATTLE SLEW might not live up to his pedigree.

Lukas had THE CALL OF DUTY run a well beaten 4^th in the 6.5 furlong Cowden Stakes at Belmont.

Zito had CRIMSON HERO run 4^th in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity GR2.

Zito had GOVERNOR HICKEL 3^rd in MdnSW at Keenland.

Zito had MARKET FLOOR run 3^rd in MdnSW at Belmont.

SIPHONIC won the Grade 2 Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity at Keenland by an impressive six lengths going 1 1/16. Has a Dosage Index of 1.00, but a week Dosage Profile of 1-0-6-1-0. In the thick of things for the Breeders’ Cup.

[September 24, 2001 – September 30, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had DANTHEBLUEGRASSMAN run 4^th in Maiden Special Weights at Santa Anita beaten 8 plus lengths. Has Dosage Points in all five categories to help balance out barely under Dosage Index of 3.63. Both Grand Sires are Chef-de-race so seems like a reasonable Derby Trail candidate if he starts running very soon.

Baffert had ECSTATIC run six lengths back in forth place at Santa Anita in the Norfolk. Not good, not that horrible for this early in the Derby development either…

Lukas had FEBRUARY STORM run dead last six place in MdnSW at SA. This son of STORM CAT on his way to major disappointment?

Lukas had MAJOR STORM run 4^th by 4 in the Arlington Washington Futurity. This other Lukas STORM CAT colt looks to be a much better Derby prospect.

Lukas had STORM COMMANDER run second in MdnSW at Turfway Park. Another Lukas STORM CAT, needs to move forward now.

Zito had LOADED SPRINGS run dead last in Maiden 75,000 claiming at Belmont. Huge Dosage Index of 9.00 on this one, forget about it…

Zito had SILENT FRED run 4^th in MdnSW at Belmont. Another Dosage Index biggy with a 7.00. These are no Triple Crown pedigrees.

ESSENCE OF DUBAI won the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita for Godolphin in an impressive performance. Amazing enough this is Godolphin’s first Graded Stakes win! He is a boarder line passing Dosage Index of 3.57, but he is a grandson of A. P. INDY, a sire that at this point in time is not out of the realm of possibility for future chef-de-race status.

The probably favorite CAME HOME was a scratch in the Norfolk. Maybe that will be good for him in the long run of the Derby Trail if they don’t force him into the Breeders’ Cup. If they do, he will probably fall to the way side before the Derby.

[September 17, 2001 – September 23, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had MOUTAIN RAGE pulled off a maiden victory by only a head after shipping over to Fairplex. Hard to think any Baffert Derby horse will have run at Fairplex to break his maiden.

Baffert had FLAIR AND SQUARE ran third in the Primer Stakes at Pimlico.

Lukas had TRUMAN’S RAIDER was a drilled 4^th in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile Stakes. Would like to have seen the son of CAPOTE fire better for a shot at the Breeders’ Cup, but still on the Derby path at a reasonable clip.

Lukas had GOLD DOLLAR the son of SEATTLE SLEW only managed a well beaten third in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile Stakes. Still could be a Derby trail contender.

Lukas had THE CALL OF DUTY Kentucky Bred with Dosage Index of 3.00 ran second in Allowance company at Belmont.

Lukas had BATTLE TOUGH just missed breaking his maiden at Turfway Park by a nose. Nice breeding out of an ALYDAR mare. He might be coming around…

Zito had PULPIT POWER ran third trying to break his maiden at Belmont.

RARE FRIENDS Ontario bred added to his already large bankroll with a win in the Swynford Stakes at Woodbine.

JUGGERNAUT won the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder going one mile and seventy yards by one and three quarter’s lengths. This guy has a Dosage Index almost off the scale at 31.00!

REPENT Kentucky bred son of LOUIS QUATORZE won the Kentucky Juvenile Cup Stakes at Turfway Park. A real possible Derby Trail candidate.

RECITE probably nothing here, but this one broke his maiden at Woodbine by a whopping 21 lengths in the slop at Woodbine. He romped wire-to-wire yes, on a sloppy track yes, however the card was not dominated by wire-to-wire winners that day, and no one won anything in anything near this commanding a fashion. You just don’t see horses win races by 21 lengths very often. He is out of a STAGE DOOR JOHNNY mare, thus should be able to run forever, and really the biggest question was if there would be enough speed introduced to go with this great bottom side stamina. This dude answered with a resounding yes.

[September 10, 2001 – September 16, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

This was not that big of a week for Juvenile male Thoroughbreds. In the context of the horrific, tragic events of the past week, while Thoroughbred racing continued, it was not eventful enough for comment. I have done the critical weekly updating of the Kentucky Derby Watch List though.

I am very pleased they have decided to keep the Breeders’ Cup (that is what it should be called) in New York, and not let the lowest form of life on earth dictate Thoroughbred racing’s biggest day.

I was also very pleased that while almost all sports above high school paused for nearly a week, when Thoroughbred racing continued after a one day pause it did not get any bad words spoken (that I heard). Unlike other Professional Sports, horse racing is an industry of the “common man”, who cannot afford to just stop working for a week. Not only do the majority of the people in horse racing need their daily pay check, it would have had a detrimental effect on the sport itself The act of “racing” is vital to the conditioning of the horses, and the “future plans” for each one of these wonderful athletes.

[August 27, 2001 – September 3, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had REQUESTO big beaten tout and favorite last time gets beat again by a neck this time. Large Dosage Index horse 5.67 is not a Derby horse.

Baffert had FUNNY MEETING run another clunker for him with a sixth place finish in the I’m Smoke Stakes at Del Mar. I loved the breeding on this one, but starting to look like not a horse with enough heart.

Baffert had HAWK’S TOP GUN get his first win by a neck in Maiden Special Weight company at Del Mar. The son of HAWK ATTACK does not have a chef-de-race in the first two generations, and while his Dosage Index is 1.15, he only has 14 total points for two early knocks on him. I will look for other Baffert horses to consider possible starters.

Baffert had HIGH THUNDER ran third in MdnSW at Del Mar. While by the stout THUNDER GULCH, He has a very high Dosage Index at 5.40.

Baffert had GAME SET MATCH ran for a Maiden 50,000 claiming tag and could only manage fourth. Bottom end of Baffert’s Juvenile bar

Lukas had JUMP START run a very disappointing 5^th in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga. No visible signs of reason for the lackluster effort, along with the fact he was already on Lasix is scary. I won’t jump off a horse for one poor race, but the next start will need to be a significantly better performance to not drop down the list.

Lukas had PROUD CITIZEN ran a well beaten disappointing 6^th in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga. Son of GONE WEST with a Dosage Index of 3.29 might not be a longer route horse.

Lukas had SPECIAL SONG run second in Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga going 6 ½ furlongs. Son of UNBRIDLED’S SONG has a nice Dosage Index of 1.91 and barely meets the bar for total Dosage Profile points with 16.

Lukas had FULL MANDATE regally bred cold ran a well beaten fifth in MdnSW at Del Mar. Son of A.P. Indy from a DEPUTY MINISTER mare would figure in the mix if he can move forward next out.

Zitto had SILENT FRED run a silent sixth in Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga. Son of speedy LOUIS QUATORZE has a Dosage Index of 7.00. Not a serious Derby candidate.

Zito had BRAVE AND DARING ran up the track and Did-Not-Finish in Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga. Scary deal there. Has a powerful Dosage Profile of 3-5-21-1-2 for a Dosage Index of 1.34. Inbred to NEVER BEND, not inbreeding I would seek for soundness.

Zito had FATHER STEVE was drilled running seventh in MdnSW at Saratoga. Son of PULPIT has a suspect Dosage Index for the Derby at 3.57.

CAME HOME had a smashing win at Saratoga for trainer Paco Gonzalez in the Hopeful Stakes. Shipping from California to New York for the win is an impressive, positive Kentucky Derby Trend. Son of GONE WEST is right on the limit with a Dosage Index of 4.00, and is very suspect to get the mile and one quarter of The Kentucky Derby. Real threat now for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but would be a surprise to win the Run for the Roses.

WARNERS broke his maiden to follow up the 103 Beyer he already had. Could be Todd Pletcher’s Derby horse. Son of DEHERE has a 3.00 Dosage Index.

CAREY’S GOLD won a division of the Florida Stallion Affirmed Stakes at Calder. Nothing really jumps out at me about this one good or bad. So we’ll see how he goes from here…

HUNTER CRUISE won the Continental Mile Stakes on the Turf at Monmouth for trainer Todd Pletcher. Son of CAPOTE should be fine on dirt also, has fine Dosage Index of 1.86. Does not have any Intermediate Dosage points, not something I like to see in a pedigree.

BOG HUNTER won the other division of the Florida Stallion Affirmed Stakes at Calder. Another horse with no Intermediate Dosage points but a good Dosage Index of 1.29. Another one we’ll have to see what the next step looks like…

TEST OF TIME finally a candidate from last years winning trainer John T. Ward. The son of CAPOTE broke his maiden in Special Weight company at Saratoga going 6 ½ furlongs by 1 ¾ lengths. He has a Dosage Index of 3.00 for a realistic shot at the Derby Trail.

IBN AL HAITHAM missed breaking his maiden for Godolphin at Del Mar in Maiden Special Weight company by a neck.

HARLAN’S HOLIDAY picked up a sweet chunk of change winning the Miller Genuine Draft Cradle Stakes at River Downs. The son of HARLAN cashed in for a cool $120,000 for the win. Dosage Index of 2.33 is good, but the chances of an Ohio bred taking the Roses is very remote.

SHAWS CREEK ran a disappointing fourth in Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine. Still has the biggest bankroll we have on track, but adjusted for Canadian money would drop him a fair bit.

SHARPER TOO ran a big race winning the I’m Smokin Stakes at Del Mar for trainer Mike Harrington. Only thing hurting him is really hard to go for California breds.

[August 20, 2001 – August 26, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had FUNNY MEETING ran up the track in an Allowance race at Del Mar. I like this ones pedigree, not very encouraging race with winners. I am not dropping him yet, but sure would like something more on the track from this very nice pedigree colt from Baffert.

Baffert had ECSTATIC won an Allowance race at Del Mar by a slim nose. Son of RAHY has no Intermediate points, not something I like to see.

Baffert had REGIMENT run 4^th in MdnSW at Del Mar. Pedigree fits the Triple Crown, needs to move forward quickly on the track though to be considered a possible.

Lukas had GOLD DOLLAR break through to the winners circle at Saratoga in Maiden Special Weight company going 7 furlongs. Son of SEATTLE SLEW is now a possible after moving forward, wish he had more than one point Intermediate though.

Lukas had STORM COMMANDER run a well beaten seventh at Saratoga. Son of STORM CAT is board line Triple Crown material with a Dosage Index of 4.00, as well as being not only double inbred, but one is to a non-superior sire NEW PROVIDENCE.

Lukas had BATTLE TOUGH run a poor eighth at Saratoga. While bred alright for the Triple Crown, this one has already had too many chances. Very doubtful Derby horse for Lukas.

Zitto had OUR SONG run sixth beaten 4 ½ at Saratoga.

Zito had CRIMSON HERO son of CAPOTE out of a FAPPIANO mare has a very suspect Dosage Index of 3.62. Might be in the mix, but very unlikely to ever be one of the ones I like.

Zito had INAUGURAL ADDRESS son of VICTORY SPEECH is pushing it with a Dosage Index of 3.40. Needs to improve on the track to start getting serious consideration.

Zito had PULPIT POWER without any new chef-de-race additions in his pedigree, he would be extremely doubtful with a Dosage Index of 4.14.

Zito had ONLY JOE son of KY Derby winner GO FOR GIN out of a RAISE A NATIVE mare. Needs to do better running then last place!

Zito had LOADED SPRINGS yikes a Dosage Index of 9.00! This one won’t be in Kentucky the first Saturday in May.

SQUARE CUT DIAMOND won the Count Turf Stakes at Delaware Park. Another early maturing 4.33 Dosage Index colt that should turn away before the Triple Crown Trail gets going.

DUBAI SQUIRE broke his maiden for Godolphin ay Arlington Park going 8 panels. Son of classic winner SUMMER SQUALL has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding to superior female IMPERATRICE (5sX5d). She is the dam of SOMETHINGROYAL, the dam of SECRETARIAT and SIR GAYLORD. Dosage Index of 2.56 leaves the only possible knock on this Godolphin runner at this point is no chef-de-race in the first two generations, with not much possibility of that changing.

[August 13, 2001 – August 19, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had OFFICER dominate the male Juveniles in southern California. The son of BERTRANDO has a high Dosage Index of 5.00. However his paternal grandsire RELAUNCH should be a chef-de-race. Depending on his categorization his DI should be different, better or worse? The bigger knock would be that he is a California Bred.

Baffert had REQUESTO run second as the top horse of a heavily bet (and touted) entry in Maiden Special Weight company at Del Mar. Dosage Index of 5.67, this guy isn’t a Derby prospect.

Baffert had SMART CHIP run fourth as part of heavy favorite entry in Maiden Special Weight company at Del Mar. Nothing stellar jumping out at me for this guy.

Lukas had JUMP START break through and win the Saratoga Special. Not crazy about inbreeding for potential Derby winners, but he is a double-inbred which I really don’t like. However the way he is inbred (not along the sire line cross) makes it more acceptable as well as the fact it is to two great horses and sires (I/C) SECRETARIAT (3sX4d) and (C) BUCKPASSER (4sX4d). He is by A.P. INDY and out of a STORM CAT mare. His Dosage Index is 3.00, but could change should STORM CAT be named chef-de-race. This could be Lukas return entry after the streak ended for the run for the roses?

Lukas had MAJOR STORM move forward and break his maiden at Saratoga going a mile and a sixteenth on the Turf. Inbred to NORTHERN DANCER, with Dosage Index of 2.00 may stay a turf runner? If he heads for the dirt, no reason he would not be a decent Derby contender really.

Lukas had BATTLE TOUGH run forth in Maiden Special Weight company at Saratoga going a mile and one sixteenth on the Turf. Son of HENNESSY is out of an ALYDAR mare which I love. Dosage Index of 2.27 all he needs now is to fire…

Lukas had TRUMAN’S RAIDER run second in the Grade 3 Sapling Stakes at Monmouth. This son of Capote has a Dosage Index of 5.00 and does not have any glaring chef-de-race changes out there. Not a real likely Derby horse.

Lukas had DISTINCTION run fifth in Allowance company at Calder. Would love to have a son of SEATTLE SLEW be a Derby stud, but this guy is not looking like he has much heart.

Lukas had FLEET CENTER eighth in Maiden Special Weight company at Saratoga. Son of BOSTON HARBOR out a FAPPIANO mare with Dosage Index of 3.73. Boarder line Derby pedigree, hasn’t run a jump yet.

Zitto had MIGHT GULCH run second in Maiden Special Weight company at Saratoga. A son of GULCH out of a WILD AGAIN mare has a Dosage Index of 4.20. Probably will be a better miler than a Derby contender.

Zito had GOVERNOR HICKEL run third in Maiden Special Weight company at Saratoga. The son of GULCH has a Dosage Index of 4.20. However he is out of a RELAUNCH mare. With his proper placement as chef-de-race his Dosage numbers would be different.

Zito had THUNDER RIVER run last in Maiden Special Weight company at Saratoga going a mile and one sixteenth on the Turf.

BUSTER’S DREAM was the real shocker this week. A contender for the Breeders’ Cup shipped to Ellis Park and got drilled! He ran fourth much to the nightmare of some “bridge-jumper” out there. The show pays were in the hundreds for the three horses who were in the money providing a windfall to the lucky show betters who took the tens of thousands of dollars some person put on what they thought was the lock of the century to be in the money.

METATRON ran a well beaten second to OFFICER. This was a picking up the pieces finish, can’t really gage anything with that race for him.

NUCLEAR ASSEMBLY added to his bankroll with a stakes win at LaD. Son of NAVEVUS has a high Dosage Index of 5.86. Should not be a Derby horse.

MYSTIC STORM broke his Maiden by 8 going a route in Special Weight company at Pimlico for Kinsman Stable. Very nice breeding for this colt by KINGMAMBO out of a DEPUTY MINISTER mare.

PURE PRECISION won the Grade 3 Sapling Stakes at Monmouth. Son of MONTBOOK does not have a chef-de-race in the first two generations and is a Florida bred. Not impossible, but not one I am jumping at yet.

[August 6, 2001 – August 12, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had HAWK’S TOP GUN run 4^th in Md62,5000 at Del Mar. Forth for a claiming tag is not what you would expect from the Baffert Derby big guns. Does have a good Dosage Index of 1.15 though.

Baffert had son of THUNDER GULCH – HIGH THUNDER run second in Maiden Special Weight at Del Mar. The Derby would be a big stretch for this one with a Dosage Index of 5.40

Baffert had FUNNY MEETING rebound from a poor eighth place finish to a smashing maiden victory in Special Weight class at Del Mar by 4 and one half lengths. I indicated my liking for this colts pedigree in previous weekly examination July 22^nd. With a rebounding improving victory, this one will shoot up the watch list this week.

Baffert had GAME SET MATCH get drilled in Maiden 62,500 claiming at Del Mar. Another doubtful Baffert Derby horse.

Lukas had THE CALL OF DUTY break his maiden by 3 ½ in Special Weight company at Saratoga. Son of HONOUR AND GLORY out of a COPELAN mare has a Dosage Index of 3.00, but only one Intermediate point with no stamina points and no chef-de-race in first two generations. Lukas should have better Derby contenders.

Lukas had HISTORIC SPEECH improved from third to the winners circle in Maiden Special Weight at Del Mar by two lengths. High Dosage Index of 4.71 we indicated previously was discouraging for this well bred son of PULPIT.

Lukas had GOLD DOLLAR run a well beaten fifth in MdnSW at Saratoga

Zitto had FOREIGN AUTHORITY get drilled in Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga.

CAREY’S GOLD won a Division of the Dr. Fager Stakes at Calder. Florida bred with 3.40 Dosage Index, Mr. Prospector paternal grandsire, one point Professional. Nothing huge to knock on this now stakes winner.

O’ROCKY won the other Division of the Dr. Fager Stakes. This stakes winner would be a stretch for the Triple Crown with a Dosage Index of 5.67.

[July 30, 2001 – August 5, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Actually no real note worthy action for these guys this week. Lukas had MAJOR STORM run forth in Maiden Special Weight on the Turf going 1 1/16,

FINE AND DANDY, a son of DANZIG out of a SECRETARIAT mare, won a Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga going 1 1/16 on the Turf. He is trained by William I. Mott. He sports a powerful Dosage Profile of 13-18-20-1-0, which works out to a Dosage Index of 3.73 under the 4.00 limit, but over 3.50 which causes concern for getting the 1 1/4.. Very regally bred colt with excellent trainer, and already proven around two turns at two makes him a possible contender.

[July 23, 2001 – July 29 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had OFFICER win the Graduation Stakes at Del Mar by 8 lengths. This one would seem unlikely to be a Derby horse with 5.00 Dosage Index. Pile on top of that he is a California bred. Not impossible, but a big black mark against him there. Early maturing classy colt, might have a shot in the Breeders’ Cup, but will take a lot of continued domination before he will have to be considered a thread to the Kentucky Derby.

Lukas had TRUMAN’S RAIDER break his maiden by an impressive 7 ½ lengths at Saratoga. The son of CAPOTE is another 5.00 Dosage Index pedigree. This one is a Kentucky Bred however. No huge knocks at this stage, but only one point Intermediate and no stamina points are not thrilling.

Lukas had ALERT run fifth in Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga. This son of Unbridled has a Derby type pedigree with a 1.72 DI. Out of a STORM BIRD mare, this Kentucky bred colt has six points Professional. Needs to do something better on the track soon to match this nice pedigree.

Lukas had BATTLE TOUGH run sixth in Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga. Another reasonable Derby pedigree, but he didn’t really fire well on the track. The son of HENNESSY is out of an ALYDAR mare.

Lukas had PROUD CITIZEN run fifth in the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga. Track was muddy, so could have an excuse for a lack luster performance?

Lukas had STORM PASSAGE run fifth in the Tyro Stakes at Monmouth. Another lack luster stakes performance for Lukas, no off track excuse for this one.

Zito finally had a runner with OUR SONG get on the map. Didn’t run too hot, but has a Derby type pedigree with DI of 1.67.

BUSTER’S DREAM won his third straight stakes in New York winning the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga over a muddy surface. He would have to be the favorite, and look very tough, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Belmont this fall. However I just think he will be an early peeking horse who is not a Derby winner. He will be there if he holds together though.

[July 16, 2001 – July 22 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had ECSTATIC break his maiden in MdnSW at Del Mar by 2 lengths going 5 panels. Only knock I can give this son of RAHY at this point is having no Intermediate points in his Dosage Profile. Another possible bullet in the Baffert barn.

Baffert had SATURDAY HERO break his maiden impressively in MdnSW company at Del Mar by 5 ½ lengths going 6 furlongs. Son of CARSON CITY has nothing to knock at this early stage. Has two points Solid, a DI of 2.50 and a chef grandsire on the paternal side. Baffert’s gun is loading up…

Baffert had HEZGOTANOTHERGEAR run 5^th in MdnSW company at Del Mar. This son of GOLDEN GEAR with a DI of 4.14 does not look at this point to be a bullet I would expect to ever get loaded in the powerful gun for the Derby.

Baffert had FUNNY MEETING run a poor 8^th in MdnSW company at Del Mar. This son of GENERAL MEETING out of an NUREYEV mare is very well suited for the Derby pedigree wise though. With a DP of 9-3-23-1-0 for a DI of 1.88 has nothing against him yet other then he needs to fire!

Baffert had SUGAR BABE run a well beaten 6^th in MdnSW company at Del Mar. This son of QUIET AMERICAN out of a FAPPIANO mare is not particularly suited for the Derby distance with a DI of 4.78. He does posses a boarder line Rasmussen Factor being inbred to (5sX4s) to CEQUILLO. Another unlikely bullet for the Baffert gun.

Lukas had HISTORIC SPEECH run third in MdnSW at Del Mar. Has nice breeding for the Derby from a non-Dosage perspective, being a son of PULPIT out of an A.P. INDY mare. Has a Dosage Index of 4.71 though, so not real exciting. However, what if down the road A.P. INDY were to attain chef-de-race status, a possibility not out of the realm of possablity? Also a Maryland bred for a slight knock.

Lukas had CAMPAIGNER run a poor 8^th in MdnSW company at Del Mar. This $515,000 Keenland purchase by GULCH out of a DANZIG mare is quite regally bred, but is pushing it for a Derby pedigree with a 3.92 DI. GULCH would be the only sire in his 4X4 pedigree with any possibility to be elevated to the pedestal of chef-de-race possibly altering his numbers.

No other action this week worth a closer examination.

[July 9, 2001 – July 15, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had a disappointing fifth place with TIM’S TALENT in the Hollywood Juvenile.

Lukas had GOLD DOLLAR a son of SEATTLE SLEW loose by a nose in Maiden Special Weight at Belmont. With a Dosage of 2.53 one to really keep an eye on if he moves forward to the winners circle next out.

Lukas had another son of SEATTLE SLEW out of a MR. PROSPECTOR mare named CHEROKEE TRAIL run 4^th in Maiden Special Weight at Delaware Park.

CAME HOME won the Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes at Hollywood Park Sunday by 4 lengths. The Paco Gonzalez trainee is right at the edge with a Dosage Index of 4.00 but has chef-de-race MR. PROSPECTOR as paternal grandsire for a plus.

RUM SPLASHER an Ontario bred with DP of 2-4-21-1-0 for a DI of 1.43 won the Colin Stakes at Woodbine.

[July 2, 2001 – July 8, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito)

Baffert had OFFICER break his maiden clear at Hollywood. However this is not one to get excited about. With a Dosage Index of 5.00, and a measly 12 total Dosage points this will not be the Baffert Triple Crown horse most likely.

Lukas had STORM CAT colt STORM PASSAGE run third in the Grade 2 Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs. Kentucky Bred with DP of 7-7-10-0-0 for a DI of 3.80 is not the greatest mile and a quarter candidate, but the distance is not out of the question. Has Intermediate/Classic chef-de-race CARO for broodmare sire for another positive trend.

Lukas had another STORM CAT colt loose by a neck in Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs as the favorite named STORM COMMANDER. He was seven clear of the third place finisher. Has a DP of 8-4-8-0-0 for an at the limit DI of 4.00. Not crazy about double inbreeding, with Bold Ruler (4sX4d) is reasonable. However inbreeding to none superior (chef-de-race) is rare and not a very exciting promise in my book. He is also inbred (4sX4d) to NEW PROVIDENCE. Again not out of the question, but I give the previous Lukas horse a better shot.

Lukas also had a 3.2 million dollar Keenland purchase named FULL MANDATE by A.P. INDY run 4^th in a Maiden Special Weight at Hollywood Park. Out of a SEATTLE SLEW mare with a DP of 8-3-11-0-0 for DI of 3.00 this is one to definitely keep an eye on. I don’t know if this was his first start, but need to see him break through in next, or be much improved though.

BINYAMIN was second in the Grade 2 Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs. Has a very suited Dosage for the Triple Crown with a DP of 10-5-8-3-0 for DI 2.71. This Kentucky Bred could be heard from more in the campaign.

BLUE BURNER trained by John J. Tammaro III won an Allowance race at Mth. This colt inbred (4s*X3d) to NORTHERN DANCER has a DP of 10-4-12-0-0 for a DI of 3.33. Out of a Classic chef-de-race ALYDAR mare.

LUNAR BOUNTY won the Grade 2 Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs. With a DP of 4-1-10-1-0 for a DI of 1.67 this Florida bred is well suited for the Triple Crown. Does not have a chef-de-race in first two generations though, and never will. Not crazy about only one point intermediate either. Had posted an 88 Beyer prior to this Grade 2 win. We’ll see what he earns for that?

JUGGERNAUT won the Criterium Stakes at Calder by 2 on a good track. They finally got his pedigree in the Del Mar database, we’ve been trying since 6/11 for it. He is a Kentucky Bred, but now that we have his pedigree it’s “see ya later” for this guy. How about a DP of 10-5-1-0-0 for a whopping DI of 31.00. This horse is not going any where near the Kentucky Derby, and would be shocking to ever get around two turns in a race.

DOC WILD broke his maiden at Monmouth on the 4^th. He has a very nice Derby type pedigree with a DI of 2.73, with two points Solid, and he is by WILD AGAIN out of a JAVA GOLD mare. Trained by John C. Kimmel, one with definite potential.

BLUE BURNER trained by John J. Tammaro III won an Allowance race at Monmouth. While not the best suited pedigree for the Triple Crown, his DI of 3.33 does not preclude him. Out of an ALYDAR mare is good. Not that crazy about inbreeding to his NORTHER DANCER sire line with him also in the third generation on the damn side.

[June 25, 2001 – July 1, 2001]

Big Three Update (Baffert-Lukas-Zito):

I will be doing this starting with the next week, it is too hard to go back now that I have this idea and get something made up for last week. Starting next week, this will be a growing page, with a new section like this each week. I will talk about the highlights of the additions and changes to the list.