I have made many resolutions not to predict the future, but I am not old enough or smart enough to give it up entirely. The mainline national churches, already hard-hit by spreading congregationalism, a decline in denominational loyalty among lay people, and a loss of trust in leadership and institutions, have been brought to their knees by a backlog of sexual abuse cases. I am currently writing the third edition of "This United Church of Ours," a book designed to inform newcomers about my denomination. I found it hard to find a positive message, until I looked to the congregations. There the vital signs are still strong. Not in all congregations, certainly, but in many. 

As I wondered what characteristics were common to lively, vital congregations, I discovered clergy or professional leadership that was charismatic, competent, and deeply spiritual. This seemed to be so regardless of whether the theology was liberal or conservative. It seemed that all three were necessary. Charisma without competence is chaotic. Competence without charisma is arid. Without a strong, articulate, evangelical (in the best sense of the word) faith, it is at least shallow and maybe sick. 

If my perceptions are near the mark, then leaders in the church of the new millennium will need the tools to survive in a congregational milieu with little or no support from presbyteries, dioceses, or conferences, and even less from the national churches which may be down to administering pension plans. 

Competence can certainly be taught in theological schools. But charisma? Spirituality? 

To a degree yes. Church professionals would need far more training in the practical aspects of leadership. There'd be far more emphasis on the theatrical art of preaching and speaking. Students would grow new metaphors to speak of a vibrant, personal faith. 

Another reality: many congregations will be unable (or unwilling) to provide more than a token salary. There may be need for a "tent-making" ministry very similar to the early Christian Church. In such a situation, a major problem would be screening ministerial candidates. How will this happen when there is little or no power in regional or national judicatories? In many independent churches, the congregation ordains. Such churches are particularly vulnerable to those who misuse the charismatic gifts so needed by the church. Theological schools may have to step into the void. That may be their toughest task because it's no easy thing to discern a genuine vocation. 

A few years ago, I held my year-old grandson, Jacob, in my arms. We were in the midst of a communion service. As I dipped the bread into the cup and placed it in my grandchild's mouth, I found in my heart a prayer I have prayed many times since: God, twenty years from now, I hope there is a church that I can point my grandson to and say, "Jake, this is a church in which you will find life in all its abundance." But God, if it is not possible, let me able to say to Jake, "You should have been there, son. My church walked into the future ready to take huge risks. And it went out in a blaze of glory! It was a wonderful thing to see!" Please God, don't let me have to tell Jake about a church that took no risks, that refused to recognize the times, that kept on doing what it had always done, and simply whimpered and slowly died. 

Ralph Milton is a storyteller, and a founding partner in Wood Lake Books. He is editor of "Rumors" , a free, on-line "e-zine" of humor and reflection. Send him a note at [email protected]