Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Well, today the journey has begun - I picked a copy of the "Sporting News Fantasy Baseball Owner's Manual 2006" from the Carnegie Mellon bookstore. This will be my sixth year playing fantasy baseball, and I hope to make it the best. I don't know how much this site will grow or what I'll do with it or if I do anything at all, but I hope it will be interesting and show my dedication at least a little.
74 days 'til Opening Day
Thursday, January 19, 2006
To be entirely honest, I didn't do, think, or read much about baseball today. I did glance at the TSN magazine though, and noticed Jason Bay went at #10 overall. He's a definitely going to be a target of mine in a number of drafts, but at 10? Seems pricey to me, and a bit more of a risk than I'd like to take. That being said I'd love to land him anywhere from the mid-2nd round on in a redraft.
73 days 'til Opening Day
Friday, January 20, 2006
Once again I didn't get to do much fantasy-baseball-wise today. I glanced at the magazine once again though, and was surprised to see that the TSN 'experts' think (Pirates 2B) Jose Castillo has 20-25 HR and 75-85 RBI potential. I guess I just didn't see that watching him last year. Here's his Baseball-Reference player page : Jose Castillo. Granted he improved virtually every category in 13 fewer AB's, but those improvements were minimal really, and with a .695 career OBP through the better part of 2 seasons, I don't see their optimism here. He's not going to steal any bases, and after the All-Star Break he hit only .255 (Castillo's Yahoo Split Stats Page). I guess I shouldn't be too critical though, as they only project him out to .267, 10 HR, 54 RBI, and a .710 OPS in 389 AB's. That ends up as the 25th-ranked 2B per their 5x5 league rankings, and he went undrafted in their 5x5, 23 round, 12 team league that drafted December 6th of '05. Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, and Castillo are the only three that (at the moment) look to see playing time between the two middle-infield (MI) spots (per Yahoo's Pirates depth chart), so maybe Castillo actually is worth a look at the end of a draft. As of today he's on the Venezuelan roster for the World Baseball Classic (WBC), so if he ends up playing and playing well I'll take a hard look at him. It's amazing what you can figure out with one little debate with yourself about a player. Don't worry, though, I wouldn't pull the trigger on him unless its very late in a 14+ team, start a 2B and MI league with a big bench.
72 days 'til Opening Day
Saturday, January 21, 2006
Today's big baseball news was the trade of Kris Benson from the Mets to Orioles for Jorge Julio and John Maine. While Julio figures to contribute little to the Mets' bullpen (with newly-signed Billy Wagner in the fold), and Maine likewise, Benson is very intriguing here. With newly-signed pitching coach Leo Mazzone in the fold, one begins to wonder about Benson's potential. A former Pirates' number one overall pick, he's never had more than 12 wins or an ERA less than 3.85 in a single season. Here's his Baseball-Reference player page: Kris Benson. He's 31 years old now, and very obviously has not met his potential. That being said, he's had to pitch in Pittsburgh (with very little run support) and New York (with immense pressure). On the positive side, Baltimore should create a few more runs for Benson than the Pirates did, and provide a more stable environment, hopefully. Also, his 10-8, 4.13 ERA, 1.262 WHIP season was arguably one of the top two of his career. Now, on to Mazzone's effect. J.C. Bradbury's articles How good is Leo Mazzone? and The Mazzone Effect Revisited attest to his supposed pitching brilliance. While I'm not entirely sold on his 'genius,' one can't deny the results generated here. If Mazzone can shave even 0.2 or 0.3 points off Benson's ERA, this could be a career year for Kris. Other factors include, of course, Benson's willingness to implement whatever Mazzone's methods are, and the fact Mazzone is in a new place and all those lurking "Brave variables" possibly involved in Mazzone's previous success are gone. One would think, though, that Mazzone had at least some input in bringing Benson to the Orioles' fold, and must see something in him. For some perspective, the TSN magazine projected Benson (before the trade) out to 11-9, 4.20 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 108 K in 186 IP. Their projections generally seem conservative, so I checked ESPN.com's as well. They see Benson (before the trade) at 10 W, 4.32 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 103 K in 173 IP. I'll be interested to see if that changes much as they take into account the trade. Here's the ESPN.com SP projection page I don't know if that link will change or not, but I'll list it anyway. At this point, simply considering Mazzone's effect, I'd project Benson somewhere near 13 W, 3.95 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP. That would be pretty serviceable. I'm glad this trade happened now, and perhaps Benson and Mazzone chatter will die down (if it ever starts) by next month, giving him some value later in drafts.