From: "Teketel Haile-Mariam"
Subject: Zenawi-Afeworki Survival Strategy: A Scenario
Date: Tue, 11 Sep 2001 10:06:44 -0400
This is the third and last bit of information I want to share with you to-day. I am sending these pieces of information because I believe you would make a difference in Ethiopia, and such types of information would be relevant for your organization.
Now, here is a frightening scenario I want all Ethiopians to think about. Being survivalists, Zenawi and Afeworki must be pre-occupied day and night with their next moves to save themselves in the face of mounting opposition against them. Zenawi has lost his very important base in Tigrai, and is now hiding behind a few Amhara opportunists. But he also knows his temporary base behind the opportunists would not last long, because his Amhara friends themselves are under attack and have no strong base among the Amhara communities either. So, what is his next move? His best chance of survival would be to get military protection from his relatives in Eritrea. To do that, he first has to demolish the Ethiopian defense forces (he now seems to have a free hand to do that with the urging of and in collaboration with international financial institutions) and encourage Eritreans to strengthen theirs, and allow the Eritrean secret agents and military to infiltrate back to Ethiopia. In return for that military protection, he would let Eritrean business people and others to move back to Ethiopia and resume their economic exploitation of Ethiopia.
Afeworki is fast losing following among Eritreans, mainly because he can not deliver the paradise he promised them after independence. That paradise was based on exploitation of Ethiopia, but that stopped in 1998. As the result, Eritreans are suffering economically. The people are rising against him because of the economic troubles, and his opponents are taking advantage of that to get rid of him. So, what should he do? He should get back to Ethiopia by hook or by crook to stop the economic bleeding, but this time through secret negotiations with Legesse Zenawi and his supporters. We would then be back to square one.
Zenawi needs Afeworki's military shield to survive, and Afeworki needs to exploit Ethiopia economically to survive. A win-win scenario for both dictators (and I must say for Eritreans in general) but a tremendous loss to Ethiopia. Is this a plausible scenario? If so, how do make sure it would not happen?
Teketel Haile-Mariam
McLean, Va
Subject: Eritreans Being Recycled Back to Ethiopia
Date: Tue, 11 Sep 2001 10:05:52 -0400
I wanted to share with you another piece of information, which I got from a relative of mine who just returned after a long vacation in Ethiopia.
An Eritrean neighbor of our relative in Addis Ababa, who was deported back to Eritrea, has returned to his old house. No one seemed to know the circumstances under which that Eritrean returned, and the Kebele administration was not bothering to ask. One may ask how the Eritrean returned and why? Afeworki and Zenawi must have agreed in secret to slowly allow the return of the deportees back to Ethiopia in the name of normalization of relationships. They hope no one in Ethiopia would notice if the deportees return in small and scattered numbers. I understand Zenawi is using his cadres to prepare Ethiopians for the return of the deportees by claiming the idea of deporting Eritreans was bad and was a crime perpetrated by the expelled TPLF central committee members. I am afraid some of those "Ethiopians" being deported from Eritrea may actually be recycled Eritreans.
How is it possible to inform the people of Ethiopia about this issue?
Regards,
Teketel Haile-Mariam
Subject: The Conspiracy of World Bank and Legesse Zenawi
Date: Tue, 11 Sep 2001 10:05:01 -0400
I would like to share with you information about who may partly be behind Legesse Zenawi's propaganda about his "new" political and economic "vision". Recently, I was talking with a high official at the World Bank about his work in Ethiopia. He said he was advising the government about promoting its international images by, for example, publicizing how the government's economic liberalization policy and domestic stability are promoting rapid economic development (forget about the facts), emphasizing its liberal policies towards the free press by citing the number of privately published newspapers, arranging trips abroad for Ethiopian officials to sell the government's achievements to the international community, organizing seminars, publicizing "successful" stories in the media, etc. It seems the World Bank is out to help the EPRDF government from falling apart because the government is an important client and its removal would mean drastic cut in the institution's lending to Ethiopia. The World Bank also has important foreign governmental backers who use the institution to advance their own policies. This may partly explain Legesse Zenawi's endless shallow talk about renewing economic development based on free market principles. I thought this piece of information may be useful for your organization.
Regards,
Teketel Haile-Mariam