[pf] BBC/NYT: possible all-out invasion of Hussein's Iraq

· contains: "a rare glimpse into the inner thinking of America's military 
planners."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_2098000/2098313.stm
  is:

Friday, 5 July, 2002, 16:04 GMT 17:04 UK 
US maps out Iraq invasion

1998 pic: The plan would involve thousands of soldiers :-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38118000/jpg/_38118279_ussoldiers300.jpg

A document leaked to the New York Times has detailed the logistics of a 
possible all-out invasion of Saddam Hussein's Iraq. 
The BBC's defence correspondent, Jonathan Marcus, reports. 

The US Central Command document cited in this report is not a final war plan - 
rather a concept of operations. 

It sets out in broad terms what the battle to topple Saddam Hussein might look 
like and, once approved, it would form the basis for much more detailed 
planning. 

The US military seem to be envisaging a sort of Desert Storm II - similar in 
some ways to the original Gulf War which drove Iraqi forces from Kuwait. 

This would be a vast operation involving a concerted air, sea and land assault 
from the north, the south, and the west - according to a report in the New York 
Times. 

Complex operation 

The report quotes a source who is familiar with the planning under way at US 
Central Command in Florida - the headquarters that would oversee preparations 
for any such operation.

Gulf War pic: The prospect of biological or chemical attack concerns US 
military strategists :-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38118000/jpg/_38118149_iraqweapons150.jpg

The plan proposes a full-scale invasion of Iraq involving tens of thousands of 
marines and soldiers supported by hundreds of warplanes operating from bases in 
a variety of countries. 

This is in some ways a more complex operation than the original eviction of 
Iraqi forces from Kuwait - an operation the Iraqi leader famously dubbed the 
"mother of all battles". 

But the strategic options in terms of avenues of attack are much greater and 
the Americans clearly intend to overwhelm Iraq's defences by a well 
co-ordinated attack from a variety of directions. 

One would expect the operation to open with a significant air campaign just as 
in the first Desert Storm. 

Nonetheless, there are some important embellishments. 

Political context 

The possibility that Iraq still has chemical or biological weapons ready for 
use in a last-ditch defence worries American planners.

So the US attack would be accompanied by covert operations on the ground inside 
Iraq to try to destroy laboratories or storage sites. 

One factor that is not seemingly addressed in any detail is the wider political 
context of any operation. 

Such large-scale military activity would require months of preparation and the 
co-operation of a number of countries in the region that would have to provide 
staging bases from which the attack would be mounted. 

It is also unclear if this is seen as essentially a US operation - perhaps with 
one or two key allies - or whether there is to be a credible military 
contribution from a wider coalition. 

Such a coalition is far from essential in military terms but could well have 
some diplomatic value. 

Military dissatisfaction 

This is certainly a rare glimpse into the inner thinking of America's military 
planners.

pic: Could the world create a new Iraq if it crushed Saddam Hussein? :-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38118000/jpg/_38118137_saddam150.jpg


But it prompts the question as to why this sort of detailed planning has 
emerged into the public domain at all. 

One factor may be the Bush administration's own desire to keep the pressure up 
on Saddam Hussein - a demonstration that President George W Bush's threats to 
unseat the Iraqi leader are not mere empty rhetoric. 

But there are also hints that the leaking of the report reflects some 
dissatisfaction within the US military. 

There is a feeling that more than a decade after the first Desert Storm, while 
the US has become stronger and Iraq dramatically weaker, the Pentagon's war 
plans still betray too traditional a form of strategic thinking. 

There is a faction in the military world which argues that the advances in 
technology over the past 10 years mean that American planners should be able to 
devise a much more innovative and elegant battle-plan. 

No 'Afghan option' 

But the military options for Washington if it is serious about unseating Saddam 
are probably limited. 

There is no real "Afghan option" - the use of special forces in concert with 
well-motivated local opponents of the regime such as the Northern Alliance. 

However, few people doubt that the US could invade Iraq and topple its rulers. 

The real question remains: What then? 

Re-building Iraq both politically and in practical terms would be a huge task. 

And while America may fight the war largely on its own, it would need the 
concerted help of all the major economic powers to set about the task of 
creating a new Iraq once Saddam's military machine was crushed.


© MMII http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/copyright.stm
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
sent-on to PF by David.
David MacClement - Civis Mundi  d1v9d @ bigfoot.com
ZL1ASX http://www.geocities.com/davd.geo/index.html 


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