[pf] God's Last Offer [No.2 of David's selections]

[More from Ed Ayres; just pointing out it's not /me/ saying this, even
though I see it as a very valuable warning, NOT a PREDICTION. Hand-typed.  
D.]

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God's Last Offer - Ed Ayres, 1999; ISBN 1-56858-125-4

p. 243 - 247 :-

    ... a critical point about fresh water in the twenty-first century and
forevermore. We can no longer deceive ourselves that water resources are
strictly the assets of some regions and not others, because water can be
transformed into grain, which is a tradeable commodity in every country on
Earth.  It takes 1000 tons of water to produce one ton of grain, and while
the weight of water may be too prohibitive to move by mechanical transport,
the weight of grain is not.  (Of course, grain can't be used to take baths
in, or to drink.  But the biggest user of water is agriculture.)  Water, in
other words, is not only physically but economically liquid.
    A massive water shortage, then, will drive up prices of grain and
everything grain is used to produce (beef, ..., milk, ... and beer, as well
as cereal, pasta, and bread) in every country in the world.  In poor
countries, food could be afforded by the wealthy elites, but those elites
could quickly become targets for millions of hungry poor.  ... the scenario
of an Egypt caught between the pincers of declining water supply and
exploding population. ... in fact, the real-world prospect is that all
countries will be drawn into this maelstrom.  Leaders, unable to deliver
relief, would likely be toppled, ... Millions of people would depart as
refugees, spilling over borders in diasporas too large to either control or
support.  The influxes would further erode national borders and identities,
...
    In the wealthier countries, as in China or Indonesia, the affluent
could afford to pay the inflated food prices -- but many of them too would
find themselves becoming targets.  In the United States, for half a
century, the wealthy have been given a free pass by the poor, thanks to the
myth of the "American Dream".  That dream was given a final spurt of life
by the era of entertainment-dominated consciousness, in which we saw case
after case of stupendous upward mobility -- poor kids with poor educations
making $5-million-per-year salaries at age 21; Appalachian housewives
becoming rich celebrity singers.  That was supplemented by $100-million
lotteries, "You have just won $1-million" sweepstakes, and other highly
publicized means of convincing the poor or struggling not only that they
could realize the Dream, but they might even do so overnight.*  Arguably,
people didn't want to bring down a regime that might soon be theirs.  They
liked the consumption spike and wanted to ride it into the heavens.
  {* Eric Brown of ... New American Dream notes that TV programming
consistently depicts "typical" people as much more affluent than the
average viewer really is -- and instils unrealistic aspirations and
spending habits.  "Americans are fighting and losing an expensive battle
not with their neighbors across the street, but with the rich and famous.
Goodbye Joneses, hello Bill Gates," writes Brown.}
    But when food itself becomes hard to come by, such fantasies can be
quickly overridden by hunger pains -- and growing resentment.  (When
cooking oil became scarce in Indonesia in the summer of 1998, the
resentment rapidly escalated into street riots.)  The United States and
Europe already have embarrassingly large numbers of poor, and by the late
1990s the distinction between "developed" and "developing" countries was
already blurring.  ... as long as world food prices are cheap, [the US and
European poor] remain relatively quiescent and invisible. ...
    We have little time to solve this problem of water scarcities that
begin in the Yellow River basin of China or the Nile headlands of Ethiopia,
but spread quickly to the once protected enclaves of the well-to-do.
Moreover, there won't be time for big mistakes, because the road to a
200-million-ton grain deficit in 2030 could easily mean passing through a
deficit in the tens of millions within the next few years -- enough to
trigger severe disruptions in civil organization.  One of the biggest
conceivable mistakes would be to rely heavily on the agendas of autonomous
nations, both because those agendas will often be in conflict and because
as viable institutions, many of those nations are on the endangered list.
In others, such as the United States, the policy agendas have become so
absurdly distorted by disinformation that it would be foolish to assume
they will prevail much longer.  This will not be the first time everyone on
Earth has had a common interest in taking co-operative action, but it may
be the first time that that interest has been visible to most.
    To devise a water-management strategy that won't crumble into feudal
disputes between outmoded nations will require the same broad,
transnational approach that's needed to stabilize the spikes*.  That's
because water scarcity is just one manifestation (though a particularly
critical one) of the breakdown the spikes have brought.  The same point can
be made about inequities of wealth, resurgences of disease, the rise of
killing, or the loss of human cultures and languages.  In each area, the
solutions are overwhelmingly of a nature that national governments can't
solve alone and in some cases are only likely to make worse.  In other
words, do what we have to do to stabilize the spikes, and the policies
needed to solve these other problems -- including water management --
become much clearer. 
  {* [The four spikes, graphed on pages 17 to 44, are: 
the CARBON Dioxide spike; 
the EXTINCTION spike; 
the CONSUMPTION spike; and
the POPULATION spike. My next selection will be his description of what we
have to do to stabilize then bring down, these spikes, in his opinion. }

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sent on by David.
(David MacClement) davd@ihug.co.nz 
www.geocities.com/Athens/Delphi/3142/Pg1-AD11.html
 or better: http://www.emucities.com.au/member/davd/
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