[pf] NZ's Electricity Supply; _Lots_ of info: democracy; market

· We in NZ rely on hydro-electricity for more than 70% of our supply, so
the occasional dry year leaves us short. This most recently happened in
1992 (and again this year).

· The government's doing a review of the electricity supply industry. I've
sent in my submission (in favour of somewhat higher prices, to encourage
avoiding waste and the provision of new supply - the classic 'market'), and
have also said:
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· I expect there will be a repeat of low hydro-flows next year, or if not
then, within only 2-5 years.

· To me, this whole situation has been predictable for at least a decade,
and equally obviously with NZ being in the "Roaring 40s", one of the
several answers is: build very large numbers (hundreds) of windturbines at
5 to 10 suitable sites around NZ. I cannot understand why the Government,
supply companies, and investors generally, haven't seen this years ago.

· I am not one-eyed about this; I regard yet another diversification branch
as: what EECA is doing to reduce waste, and a third is that ordinary
householders and small businesses have to be given effective encouragement
to produce some of their own energy supply - the small-scale part of a
distributed generation system in New Zealand.

· All of this, huge megawatt windturbines, solar water-heating, and 0.5 to
50 kW wind and photovoltaic (PV) installations, _require_ higher energy
prices than we've had in the past, to get these people out of the rut of
thinking that the future will be like the past. It won't; it can't.

· Unexpected-shock-tolerant systems have several features in common, and
diversity, ability to switch operating styles between different modes, is
certainly one. Complexity is another likely feature; we need people
involved who revel in dealing with the challenges of complexity.
  An example. The U.S. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) (see:
http://www.epri.com/ ) describes a new idea: "consumers might be agreeable
to plug-in hybrid vehicles.... 30 to 50 percent of respondents would choose
a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) even if it were priced 25 percent
higher than a US$19,000 conventionally powered sedan. Further, 63 percent
said they preferred plugging in a vehicle at home than going to a gas
station for a fill-up. It would have a 60 mile all-electric, battery-only
range. (Most trips could be made on battery power.) Its gasoline engine in
conjunction with the battery pack would be used for longer travel distances
[giving it an overall 80 mpg economy]." [from: http://www.nrglink.com/ ]
  With _lots_ of renewable electric energy, we could reduce NZ's reliance
on overseas supplies of fuel.


· Since we _will_ have unexpected shocks, we _must_ design accordingly.
Simply screaming that "the prices shouldn't go this high!" is of little use.

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· Here's a large page of quite interesting graphs of our electricity
savings, and prices over the last months and years :-

http://www.winterreview.govt.nz/background/graphs/index.html

· That's the sort of information that (i) is needed in a democracy, to have
informed opinions, and (ii) should be available in a proper 'market' which
relies on all parties having full information (& several other things,
including having the "choosing not-to" option).

David.
David MacClement [davd @ ihug.co.nz] (remove spaces)
http://davd.tripod.com/GrRR-010907_titles.html#top
http://www.geocities.com/davd.geo/index.html#top
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