Thursday December 23, 1999

The sensational controversies and political excitement over Iran's sixth Majlis (Parliament) will be settled through nationwide elections on February 17, 2000, provided, of course, that everything proceeds smoothly and nothing unexpected happens.

After the elections, all political wings and figures, along with the people, will anxiously await the results of the polls the next morning to see how many seats each wing will occupy in the sixth Majlis.

The reformists are expected to win a landslide victory in the upcoming parliamentary polls in case of fair elections and in case of the Guardians Council's * self-restraint and unbiased review of all candidates' qualifications. While this victory is pleasant to the reformists, it could also toll a knell of warning for them!

If the conservatives are caught by surprise in the upcoming election – as they were in the May 23, 1997 election when they incurred a massive defeat - and if they fail - as expected -- to even win a minority in the next Majlis, the said warning could turn into real concern and worry for the reformists.

This concern springs from the fact that the conservative wing claims it is in the right, a claim that makes the wing dangerous and unpredictable when it plunges into a position of weakness.

The conservative wing has time and again declared that since it is always in the right, it will never bow down to the majority rule and demand.

As such, the highly possible landslide victory of the reformists in the upcoming Parliament elections can be the start of a fresh round of conservative bids to disrupt the smooth progress of initiatives by the reformists.

Since the conservatives think they are in the right, they view their defeat as the defeat of Islam. They, therefore, naturally feel entitled to do just anything to "save and rescue Islam".

The conservatives' ineptitude to win the favor of the people and their intolerance toward defeat is "their own problem"! The upshot of this problem, however, is a common suffering and pain which grips Iran's entire political community, a problem that knells the toll of warning for Iran's future political stability.