Strat-O-Matic Internet Basketball Association

"First In Class" by Tim

SOMIBA #2

If back to back MVP Tim Duncan is the best player in the game as he enters the prime 5 years of his career next season at 28, he could become the best player ever to play the game. He missed 8 games in his 3rd year, and sat out last years finale. Otherwise, he shows up to play every day and night including practice, pre-season and driveway ball. Like Magic or Stockton, he doesn’t worry or complain about his shot attempts, he shoots when it will help his team. He doesn’t need points and a high scoring average for his ego, and this dog guards the basket whether or not he is being “Fed” shot attempts. He isn’t a player who needs shots so he will play sort of hard on defense. He doesn’t complain that shots aren’t planned for him early in games to help avoid foul trouble, doesn’t skip practices, cause disruptions to his team or coaches, and doesn’t coast. His perimeter game has more different “sweet” spots than any 7 footer I have ever seen other than Nowitski. He isn’t limited to the foul line and corner shots like many good outside shooting big men are.

His statistics aren’t as gaudy as those who played in the pre NBA-ABA merger era, when there were only a few big men playing over 6’ 6”, and those few that did dominated the many available rebounds. In the next dozen or so years until roughly 1989, league-wide FG % steadily rose to its all time high, teams shot often and scoring reached its peak. Players performing in this era have high scoring averages and FG % compared to players in other eras.

Because of the success of defense in the late 1980’s, the new focus in the NBA was on defense. The new selection criteria of skills favored the defensive side more than ever, and the frequent movement of good assistant coaches who were strong in defense in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s caused a revolution in personnel and strategy which continues to this day. It is not as though teams didn’t practice defense or weren’t concerned about it before 1990, but teams and players have been far more focused on defense since then than they were before. Today’s NBA game has fewer possessions than most previous eras and a lower league-wide FG %. Compared to players from the 1970’s and 1980’s,  players today will have fewer scoring and rebound opportunities, and will shoot against tougher defenses. You could add 3 % to FG % and 4-5 points to scorers of today to get mid 1980’s equivalents.

Players career statistics are boosted greatly by their prime years, usually from 28-32. They often play their worst during their first 3 and their last 2 seasons. Tim Duncan has now got those 3 “lean” years out of the way, winning rookie-of-the-year and an NBA Finals MVP while learning on the job and getting his rookie calls. During this NBA apprenticeship he has career averages of 51 % FG, 70 % FT, 22.7 points, 12.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.7 blocks per game.

In his first 6 years he has 5 consecutive 1st team All NBA defense (2nd team as a rookie, the slacker), 2 consecutive MVP's of the regular season, 2 MVP's in his NBA championships. Only Magic and Jordan won the MVP in each of their 1st two Finals series. He has won 2 titles quicker than most great players. The Lakers were primarily challenged during the Shaq-Kobe-P Jackson era by the Spurs, who have won 2 of the last 5 titles. I wonder if they were the big market, and the Lakers were the small market team, if this would have been different.

IMO, while All Star selections are based upon popularity, All-NBA selections are the most accurate selections in any sport. Tim Duncan has been All-NBA 1st team in EACH of his first 6 seasons, including his 1998 ROOKIE season. Amazing and telling honor he has received every season during this era of all time great LF’s-Karl Malone won his MVP’s in 1997 and 1999. The other four players to win ALL NBA 1^st team honors in each of their first 6 seasons were Larry Bird, Elgin Baylor, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Petit. Duncan has been 1st team all NBA at forward during the golden age of forwards over Karl Malone, Scottie Pippin, Grant Hill, Kevin Garnett, Chris Webber, McGrady, Dirk Nowitski. Only David Robinson was named to an All NBA team 1^st, 2^nd, or 3^rd team and All defensive team in his first 6 years (he did it 7) in NBA history. Duncan has nailed first team in each for the past 5 seasons. No forward has ever competed in a tougher environment than Tim Duncan in the 1998-2003 Western Conference. If considered a forward, he may well become the best forward in NBA history over Bird, Malone, Baylor.

It seems reasonable that with his conditioning he will be a much better player during his prime than Shaq or Kareem. Though he had the best opening 5 years in history, Abdul-Jabbar coasted through his prime on talent rather than hard work spent conditioning or adding to his game. Wilts knees bothered him later in his career, and cut it short. Shaq has been in his prime for 3 years and isn’t producing as often or as well as Duncan. Shaq has worked on his game, but his poor conditioning and intermittent drive has cost him his chance to separate himself during his prime. Shaq appears to be hanging on rather than setting new standards for himself and reaching new levels of performance. Duncan won his first Finals MVP in his second season. Duncan is the best fundamental player of any of these players, depending less on strength and height, and takes betters care of himself. I expect he will take better advantage of his natural abilities during his prime physical years than many others with his talent level. I don’t think his career will pre-maturely end due to off-court issues, and I don’t think he will retire for 5 years during his prime.

Duncan and his team are gathering skins against some of the best players and teams, in one of the greatest eras, the NBA has seen. If he duplicated this, by age 33 he would have 12 consecutive 1^st Team All-NBA selections,  4 MVP’s, and 4 NBA Finals MVP’s. He would be the record holder in these categories, and still only be 33 years old. He rose to the very top as an NBA rookie, not in headlines but in production. If he can add another 10 years like his first 6 1/2, he will be considered one of the top 3-5 players to ever play basketball. Maybe the best.