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is there an oil bubble?
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In a word, no. After you read about the hilarious Oct 2004 call by some right wing tool, saying that the "oil bubble" that had then drove prices to $50/bbl was about to burst, you may begin to understand that not all price rises, even sharp price rises, are bubbles. The key component in the formation and discernment of a bubble is leverage, borrowing, credit being deployed in the service of the bubble. This has not happened here-yet; NYMEX raised oil margins 17 months ago, and held them study, and I have yet to see any storefront oil futures brokers open up offering subprime margin loans for oil trading. No bubble yet, maybe when oil reaches Goldman's $200 target, maybe not even then.


2008-05-14 13:33:34 GMT
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