Overview: The Summer of 1943
The Eurasian War is over and the Axis Powers have come out as the
victor, leaving the Soviets almost totally landlocked, isolated from the
outside world, and reeling from the loss of European Russia west of the Volga,
the Ukraine, the Caucasus, and the Siberian Pacific coast. The Axis have
spread their brand of fascist totalitarianism from the Atlantic coast of
Spain to the shores of Japan. The Alliance looks on from western Europe with
an ever-growing sense of worry while the U.S. remains comfortable with two
great oceans as a security blanket.
Here is a look at the effects of the Eurasian War on the Axis Powers and
the Soviet Union...
The Soviet Union
Under Stalin's leadership the Soviets had been able to gobble
up Finland and Poland and were in a position of great strength. Indeed,the
initial invasion of Romania looked like a continuation of the spread of Soviet
communism. Even after the Germans entered the war,things seemed to be in
the favor of the Soviets. Soviet manpower and sheer industrial might would
swamp the Axis with swarms of troops and superior tanks. What the Soviets
hadn't counted on was the tactical brilliance of the German army who consistently
maintained a 2 and 3 to 1 kill ratio over their Soviet counterparts. This
translated into higher losses of men and material and, eventually, into a
lower morale for the Red Army. In the four years of the Eurasian War the
Soviet Union suffered roughly 22 million total military casualties, 9 million
dead and the rest captured, wounded or MIA. Another 8 million Soviet civilians
were killed or wounded as the Axis made their way through Soviet territory.
These figures do not include the millions of Ukranian casualties suffered
during the war. Japan's invasion of Siberia, Stalin's overthrow by Beria,
and the Turkish invasion of the southern Caucasus are probably the three
descive factors that forced the Soviet acceptance of an armistice in 1942.
Without these pressures it is likely that the Soviets could have fought the
Germans to a bloody stalemate on the eastern front and won back much lost
territory in the resulting peace terms. The Soviets were overwhelmed by a
war on three fronts and were literally running out of men to defend all that
frontage. It is important to note that the back of the Soviet Union was never
fully broken in the war and the Armistice of 1942 left the Red Army and Air Force
weakened but entirely intact. The Red Navy was, however, scuttled and disbanded
due to the terms of the 1942 Armistice,leaving Germany in control of the
Barents Sea. The heaviest blow to the Soviets was the loss of the Ukraine
and its vast farmlands. Without it the Soviets can almost assuredly expect
famine by 1944-45. Some of this can be alleviated by shipments from the west
but the Soviets are, obviously, low on cash and even lower on credit. The
coming years will be hard on the Soviet Union. Beria has maintained a war-like
footing for the economy, with civilian rations remaining low and a large
percentage of the Soviet GDP flowing into the military. Beria has ordered
massive oil exploration around the Soviet Union in an attempt to recover
from the loss of Baku.
The Summer of 1943 sees the Soviets in a weak, but still viable, position.
Japan's holdings in Siberia are thin at best and lack any real depth. Beria
would attempt to retake the Siberian coast at once it not for the Japanese
membership in the Axis Powers. With Persia locked in civil war, the Soviet
Union has only one remaining source of trade with the outside world, the
ports on the Baltic and Barents seas, and these are subject to closing by
the Germans at any time since the Red Navy has been forced to scuttle its
entire fleet except for small coastal patrol vessels. The German position
in the Caucasus is also precarious because Germany controls only a narrow
corridor from the Ukraine into the north Caucasus. The Soviets still form
a formidable wedge between Germany and Japan and are strong enough to force
Germany to keep a wary eye on its eastern frontier.
Beria's immediate aims are to get past the coming food shortages, retool
Soviet industry in the trans-Urals, and forge closer ties with the west,
including the Alliance and the U.S. Longterm, Beria hopes to use his position
between Germany and Japan as a weapon against them in what he sees as an
inevitable war of vengeance to regain those territories lost in the Eurasian
War.
The Axis Powers
Despite their victory over the Soviet Union, the Eurasian War
was no cakewalk for the Axis Powers. Germany, and its minor Axis allies,
suffered roughly 9.5 million military casualties, 4 million dead and 6 million
captured, wounded or MIA, and 4 million civilians were killed or wounded,
most of these in Romania and the Ukraine. Add Poland to the list, and the
number of civilian and military dead and wounded climbs by an additional
8 million. Japan, on the Siberian theatre, suffered some 3 million dead or
wounded, most of these from the ranks of the puppet Manchurian army.
Despite these heavy losses, the fact remains that the Axis Powers did come
out on top. The war provided a spark to the economies of every Axis member,
and provided new territory and resources to Germany, Italy, and Japan. In
the aftermath Germany is the undoubted master of Europe, with a host of minor
allies on its south flank and a greatly weakened Soviet Union on its eastern
flank. Only France and Britain provide a challenge, on the western flank.
Hitler is already looking west to complete his conquest of Europe, but he
needs time to fully recover from the Eurasian War. The German economy of
mid-1943 is in the midst of a post-war boom, and much of the debt owed to
the west has been repaid. Germany is in the process of forcibly joining its
newly conquered territory with the rest of the Reich. The Slavic upper classes
are being widely purged and deported and replaced by Germanic settlers. Hitler's
dream of eastern 'living space' is in the process of being realized, to the
detriment of the local populations. To the south, Italy has done very well
for itself, having gained the Mediteranean coast as far east as central Greece
and having gained much of Balkans, all at little cost. Italy is in the process
of modernizing its armed forces and is benefiting from the overall economic
boom among the Axis Powers.
Japan, on the other hand, is not doing as well. It has gained some resources
in coastal Siberia, but did so at a great cost in men and material. Japan's
primary stratetgic shortages of oil and other resources have been only partially
relieved by trade with the rest of the Axis Powers. For this reason, Japan
is looking south with greedy eyes and secretly making preparations to sieze
much of the Alliance-held Pacific territories, with or without the participation
of the rest of the Axis Powers.
The overall international trade situation has become rather complex. Trade
between the Axis and the Alliance is virtually nil, with only a small black
market operating on that arena. This is due to Alliance embargos of most
trade with the Axis Powers. However, the U.S. and South America continue
to trade rather freely with the Axis, thus offsetting most of the effect
of the Alliance trade bans, and trade between the U.S. and the Alliance nations
is booming more than ever as the U.S. economy continues to emerge from the
bleak 30's.
Military Affairs
Militarily, all sides have learned a lot of lessons. Manuever
warfare, combined arms tactics, strategic bombing, and many other areas of
warfare have been greatly refined and tested due to the Eurasian War and
the great nations have learned most of those lessons. France and Britain
have formed armored divisions and mechanized infantry divisions, copying
the organization and tactics of their German counterparts, and both sides
have organized powerful strategic air forces in anticipation of hammering
each other's cities. Germany has a sharp advantage in experience, equipment,
and tactical training, but the nations of the Alliance hold a strong naval
advantage and much experience in the arts of strategic planning.
France has the largest army in Europe though most would agree that the Germany
army, man for man, is a superior force. The German navy now has core force
of carriers, battleships and cruisers that can challenge the British Fleet
in coastal waters close to Germany or terrorize Alliance shipping as a surface
raiding force, but the North Sea is still dominated by the sheer numerical
advantage held by the Royal Navy. To offset this disadvantage, the Germans
now have a force of hundreds of the latest-model U-boats and have hopes of
starving the British Isles and blockading the Alliance in the event of war.
Another big military advance is radar. This technology played virtually no
roll in the Eurasian war but by the summer of 1943 the use of radar is becoming
very widespread. Both the Axis and the Alliance now have extensive radar
detection systems in strategic areas. Both sides are beginning to equip naval
vessels with surface-scanning radar and are exploring radar-guided flak,
rockets, and naval guns. Even Japan is beginning to deploy radar systems,
thanks to help from their German allies. The Germans have also begun to field
test several Jet fighters and bombers, and the British have a jet fighter,
the 'Meteor', under development as well. Germany is within 6 months of fielding
a true all-jet fighter squadron.(Basically a greatly refined Me-262 with
a vastly more reliable jet engine and real landing gear)
There are many other minor changes that when added together combine to make
much more lethal military forces. For example, Germany is in the process
of replacing their standard infantry rifle, a relic of WW1, with a new Assault
Rifle.(It looks similiar to the AK-47, indeed the Ak-47 was derived from
German designs) Also, field radios are being even more widely distributed
than they were in the Eurasian War, as the effectiveness of soldiers being
able to call on direct artillery support had not gone unnoticed. Other changes
include the adoption of improved camoflauge by all sides, improved small-unit
tactics, proximity-fuse artillery shells, etc. The Eurasian War has brought
a great many innovations.
The single greatest advantage that Germany holds over France and Britain
is in its panzers. The latest model Cougars are about 2 generations ahead
of anything the Alliance is fielding, and the next generation Cougar-2 is
likely to have a new 98mm main cannon, infra-red viewing gear, greatly enhanced
engine and suspension, etc. The best tank under development anywhere else
in the world is a U.S. model, the Pershing. It will be a match for the Cougar
but will be outclassed by the Cougar-2. This is a major concern of the British
and French and movement towards the development of a better tank is in the
works, but it is 2 years away at best.
Social and Political
In the U.S. the predominant attitude toward foreign affairs
remains one of isolationism, with a few very prominent exceptions. Roosevelt
has had to fight to get to a million man army and to get the 6 Essex class
carriers built and new battleships constructed. The only shift in this area
has been an unease about the rising tide of fascism in South America, but
even this is seen as a purely 'Western Hemisphere' affair. Despite pressure
from the Alliance the U.S. has refused to break off trade with the Axis Powers,
with the exception of Japan whom the U.S. has embargoed for some time. Americans
view the Axis Powers as an extremist totalitarian Alliance, but do not see
it as a threat to the U.S. The Alliance, most Americans feel, can take care
of the Axis on their own. The Soviet Union remains the most despised among
Americans, in spite of its weakness following defeat in the Eurasian War.
Politically, the Republicans are gaining steam on a platform of conservative
domestic politics and isolationist foreign policy. Roosevolt is believed
to be in trouble if he runs for another term in 1944. The Summer of 1943
is a time of high hope and expectation in the U.S. The economy seems to have
fully recovered from the Great Depression, the Navy is viewed as the strongest
in the world, and the Alliance seems to be acting as a convenient buffer
against both the Axis Powers and the despised Soviet Union.
The mood in the nations of the Alliance for Democracy is much different,
in spite of healthy economies and domestic tranquility. The Axis Powers are
casting a frightening shadow over western Europe and France and Britain are
entering a sort of siege mentality. The Soviet Union is a forgotten threat
in the Alliance, as the Axis Powers loom. There have been anti-fascist crackdowns
in Britain and France where Far-right politcal parties are coming under assault
from all sides, up to an including government investigations and suppression.(Think
of the 'Red Scare' of the 50's in the U.S. and then multiply it by about
2 or 3 times to get an idea of the anti-fascist climate in Britain and France).
In Britain and France strong centrist coalitions are in power, and Churchill
is growing in prestige in Britain. War is seen as virtually inevitable throughout
the Alliance for Democracy and there is a growing feeling that the U.S. should
join with them in the Alliance.
In the Axis Powers the mood is primarily one of rising nationalism and confidence.
They have halted the spread of Soviet Communism and are joined together in
a position of strength. In Germany massive Nazi rallies have raised the population's
nationalism to new heights of fervor, and there is a growing sense that all
of Eurasia is destined to come under the rule of the Axis. Anti-western feelings
are on the rise as Britain and France are being viewed as the last obstacles
to lasting peace and unthreatened power in Europe. Some of the minor Axis
nations in Europe are coming to resent Germany, but it is far too late to
back out of the Axis, they are along for the ride whether they like it or
not. In Italy, Mussolini continues his call for a new Roman Empire and the
Italian population is clamoring to gobble up North Africa and the entirety
of the Mediteranean. More than anything else, there is a growing pride around
the Axis of the power they have attained, and a growing anxiousness to complete
the work that began in 1938. In Japan the military leadership has succeeded
in generating massive anti-western feelings in the Empire, and the calls
for an end to western imperialism in Asia are growing in strength.
The people of the Axis Powers and the Alliance for Democracy are, without
a doubt, headed on a collision course.