Japan threatens to execute U.S. and Alliance prisoners of war and retaliate "with every special weapon in our arsenal" if any more of the new 'atomic' weapons are used against Japanese forces.

Germany quietly issues orders to reign in its submarines on the Atlantic. Dönitz has been ordered to 'discontinue operations in the western and central Atlantic in favor of increasing operations in the eastern Atlantic'. Hitler has calculated that submarine operations in the central Atlantic are not worth the risk of angering an atomic-armed America. Requests from Japan for 'aid in the face of the west's terrible new weapon' are politely ignored by the German foreign minister. Overnight, the atomic research program becomes Hitler's primary area of interest.

The Soviet Union remains officially silent on the matter while Beria considers moving up his timetable. In the end he decides to maintain his planned schedule, gambling that the U.S.'s awesome new weapon will not bring about an immediate Japanese surrender.

January 4th 1948

After a series of high-level meetings, Hitler decides that the pace of operations in Scandinavia and North Africa must be accelerated in order to ensure victory against the British before the Americans decide to intervene with their atomic bombs.

The U.S. dispatches a fleet consisting of four aircraft carriers and appropriate escorts from Pearl Harbor in hopes of capitalizing on the fear and confusion sown by the atomic attack on Rabaul. The fleet steams due east in the direction of the Japanese-held central Pacific.

January 5th 1948

Hundreds of U.S. bombers attack targets in Rabaul which had been far enough away from the atomic blast to survive. Several airfields and supply depots are severely damaged or largely destroyed. The Japanese can only put up a token resistance - AAA and a small number of fighters from the surviving airfields are overwhelmed.

The Japanese fleet begins to disperse heavy surface warships into smaller squadrons in order to prevent future wholesale atomic destruction of their naval units. In the central Pacific, two large carrier groups which had been preparing to move south are forced to disperse.

January 7th 1948

The U.S. explodes its second atomic bomb, the more complex 'implosion' design, on a desolate test range in New Mexico. The news crushes Japan's hopes that the weapon used against Rabaul had only been built once so far. The Japanese high command begins taking steps to strengthen air defenses around the home islands.

January 11th 1948

With U.S. naval patrols becoming increasingly bold throughout the northern Solomons, the Japanese decide to withdraw the remnants of their naval forces in that theatre, leaving the island garrisons in the northern Solomons to fend for themselves. Operating mostly on skeleton crews flown in from the central Pacific, every ship that can operate under its own power begins steaming north -away from the Solomons.<//p>

January 12th 1948

U.S. air forces begin a massive campaign against Rabaul's coastal defenses. This marks the beginning of a sustained air campaign to weaken heavily fortified Japanese defenses across the northern Solomon islands. Japanese air defenses in the theatre are limited to flak, with most of the surviving Japanese aircraft having already evacuated the region.

January 13th 1948

The 8th panzer army, now under the command of Field Marshall Erwin Rommel, begins preparing to relocate from its present location on the rolling plains east of Minsk - Their destination : Libya. The 8th panzer army is one of several mechanized contingents being transferred to the newly expanding Army Group Africa. Hitler has cancelled plans for sending ground forces to Iraq in favor of reinforcing Libya.

Under orders from Admiral Dönitz, the Kriegsmarine begins a program to disperse its surface warships around naval bases in southern Norway, Sweden, northern Germany, Denmark, and Poland. Doenitz fears a 'Rabaul' style attack if the British get their hands on an atomic bomb.

In the seas 250 kilometers south of Truk, U.S. carrier aircraft locate and hammer the wounded Japanese fleet attempting to flee from the northern Solomons. Roughly half of the Japanese ships attacked are sunk, the high losses being the result of the fact that the skeleton crews on the Japanese ships are able to put up little anti-aircraft fire. The once mighty Japanese South Seas fleet has been reduced to a small fraction of its former strength in the span of just two weeks.

January 15th 1948

President Dewey refuses Britain's formal requests for access to atomic weapons, but does agree to secretly pass along all the information necessary for the British to build atomic weapons on their own. The U.S. will also secretly give the British enough weapons-grade uranium, under the auspices of 'energy research', to build several atomic bombs. The British need only manufacture the bombs themselves, following detailed instructions provided by the Dover project. Top British nuclear scientists, members of the ongoing Alliance atomic research program(codenamed 'Tube Alloy'), estimate that they can build several atomic bombs by mid 1949, with more to follow in 1950 once Britain is able to produce its own fissionable materials. 

January 16th 1948

U.S. carrier aircraft, launched from the taskforce that left Pearl Harbor two weeks before, attack Japanese airfields on Wake Island, destroying many aircraft on the ground and shooting down many others. The U.S. attackers, enjoying the element of surprise, suffer only light losses.

The Japanese, fearing than an invasion of Wake may be immanent, dispatch a taskforce consisting of three carriers, half of the remaining Japanese carrier strength in the central Pacific, from the Marshall Islands. The force, spread out more than normal to limit the effects of an atomic attack, begins steaming northeast to make contact with the U.S. carrier force in that area.

January 19th 1948

The British make the first large-scale use of their new short ranged, radar-guided, rocket - firing several of them from Lancaster bombers to successfully strike large German radar arrays near Calais. In addition, the RAF has begun to use modified Lancaster bombers as flying radar platforms which they call Airborne Radar Platforms, or ARP. These new ARP aircraft, operating over southern Britain and the North Sea, are able to peer further into Hitler's fortress Europe, providing some early warning for ballistic missile launches and directing fighters towards German aircraft much faster than was previously possible.

The U.S. and Germany have ARP projects of their own but both are about six months behind the British program.

January 20th 1948

The Battle of Wake, a classic carrier engagement, takes place in the seas several hundred kilometers east of Wake Island. The Japanese force manages to spot the U.S. carriers first allowing Japanese torpedo and dive bombers to sink two U.S. carriers and moderately damage a third. Before the Japanese can withdraw back to the south, U.S. dive bombers sink one Japanese carrier and lightly damage a second. The battle ends in a clear Japanese victory, the first they have won in some time. The surviving U.S. carriers and their escorts are forced to turn back towards Hawaii.

Tokyo celebrates the victory on its radio broadcasts, mocking the U.S. and claiming that "even U.S. wonder weapons and numerical advantage are not enough to defeat the gallant Japanese warriors". In the U.S. there is a somber recognition that the war has not been won and that much hard fighting lies ahead in spite of the advent of the atomic bomb.

The U.S. Navy became overconfident following the atomic bombing of Rabaul and the subsequent sinking of half the remaining Japanese South Seas fleet - and thus underestimated the continued Japanese resolve to fight. Japanese naval and air strength in the central Pacific remains relatively strong, although the Japanese are now down to only five carriers in the central Pacific theatre. The loss of three carriers is a big blow to the U.S. Pacific fleet and this defeat will curtail U.S. operations in the central Pacific for some time.

January 22nd 1948

The U.S. launches operation 'Blast Knot', the invasions of New Britain and New Ireland - the last Japanese strongholds in the south Pacific.

Shortly after sunrise, on a troop transport ship off the coast of New Britain...

Nineteen year old Private First Class Joe Hannity stood on the deck of the 'Liberty and Justice' with hundreds of other young men his age, the young soldiers of the 21st regiment of the third marine division. To a man, the riflemen stood facing north - away from the distant coast of New Britain. They had been ordered to face away from the coast only an hour before, and had been issued protective glasses, gloves, and gasmasks at the same time. Although it was supposed to be a secret, everyone had pretty much come to the conclusion that one of the new atomic bombs was going to be used, and soon. A voice came over a loudspeaker just then.

"Attention marines. Everyone put on your protective gear now, and keep facing out to sea". It was the captain's voice, evidently word had come down that the bomb was about to go off. Minutes passed, time crawled. Men began to laugh and joke again, the usual tense attempts at humor in the buildup to combat. It was on odd scene, hundreds of men wearing dark sunglasses over gasmasks in addition to thick gloves and their normal combat gear.

Joe was about to ask Corporal Reynolds for a cigarette before he stopped himself - how was he supposed to smoke a cigarette with this damn gas mask on? He saw some men holding cigarettes in their hands, apparently realizing the problem a bit later than he had himself. A few men had decided to deal with the problem directly, by taking off their masks and concealing the act behind fellow marines.

A sudden flash caught Joe by surprise and for a second he thought the ship had come under attack. But no sound accompanied the light and the ship stayed steady beneath his legs. His second thought was that someone had set off a magnesium flare, though why someone would ignite one in the daytime was beyond him. It took several seconds for his brain to connect the flash with the atomic bomb that was being dropped. Had the Army Air Force boys screwed up and dropped the damn thing right among the fleet? The light persisted for a moment, and then faded. Someone cried out "My eyes!". Joe couldn't see the victim, but obviously someone either hadn't faced in the right direction or hadn't worn their sunglasses.

A commotion began among the soldiers closest to the starboard railing, the side facing the coast. Joe was in the middle, unable to see much of anything past the man in front of him, but he was able to slip by several men and scramble on top of a crate. From his newly elevated perspective, he could see men pointing in the direction of the coastline, and then his attention turned to what they were pointing at. Joe's jaw dropped immediately, and he couldn't help but point at it himself.

Along the coastline, some seven or eight miles distant, a pillar of dust and debris was towering into the air, thousands of feet into the air as far as he could tell. At its base he could see boiling flame and haze, like something out of a madman's vision of hell. As the pillar towered further into the air, the shockwave from the blast crashed across the ship and Joe had to quickly go to his belly on the crate to prevent himself from being thrown off. The sudden wind was accompanied by a tremendous thunderclap.

Minutes passed as the pillar of smoke continued to tower into the air and it began to blossom at its top like a terrible flower entering full bloom. The base of the pillar was obscured in dark roiling clouds and it occurred to Joe then that they were going to be hitting the beaches in _that_. Apparently the same thought was dawning on other men, and a uneasy silence descended over the ship as riflemen began to double check their gas masks and tighten gloves. Everyone had heard the rumors about dangerous chemicals or gasses associated with the atomic bombs.

Ten minutes later, as the mighty atomic pillar and its terrible blossom began to dissipate and twist around in the winds, the order came down to begin the attack. As the big guns of the fleet began to thunder Joe and the rest of the 21st ambled down netting draped along the ship's sides and stuffed themselves into the landing craft. As they started making their way towards the shore the big guns and rocket launchers on the battleships and cruisers continued to blast away, sending shells and rockets screaming overhead towards whatever japs had survived the atomic bomb.

"Seems like a goddamn waste of good ammunition to me" someone commented. The remark made a certain kind of sense. How many japs could have survived the atom bomb? After considering it for a moment, Joe decided that if any Japanese had survived he was all for dropping shells and rockets on them. When he voiced his opinion no one disagreed. As they approached the shoreline the landing craft's driver informed them they were getting close to the beach, and a glance up at the sky showed that the atomic pillar was all but gone, only the awesome memory of it lingered. A few incoming shrieks, explosions, and sprays of water around them seemed to indicate that some Japanese _had_ survived, as remarkable as that seemed. And they were going to fight. So be it, Joe thought, that's why we came here.

As the landing craft struck sand, the front ramp swung down and he and the others onboard began to scramble down into the shallow water. They found themselves running onto a rocky beach with no incoming fire evident. Officers and sergeants were shouting, driving the men forward before any resistance became evident. Realizing that he wasn't under fire, Joe found himself able to concentrate more on his surroundings. The devastation he saw made his jaw drop all over again. Not a single tree was standing that he could see, and what vegetation was still evident was on fire or already charred. Thick smoke hung in the air, and a light mist of ash-like debris was coating everything in a fine layer of dust.

The 21st and the rest of the third marine division had advanced over a mile inland before they began encountering any Japanese soldiers, and the ones they did encounter were mostly in shell shock or terribly wounded. Blinded or severely burned by the looks of them. A few Japanese had apparently been in good shelter and far enough away from ground zero to have some fight left into them - but these strong points were few and far between and were easily flanked, surrounded, and neutralized.

An hour after hitting the beach southeast of Rabaul, Joe had only fired his rifle twice, at a Japanese sniper firing from the battered remnants of a reinforced concrete bunker. It was another half an hour later before they began to encounter organized resistance, but by then the third division had already pushed two and a half miles inland. Apparently the Japanese had begun to recover from the initial disruption of the atomic bomb, because some artillery began to whistle overhead to impact back at the beaches. However, the incoming fire was only sporadic and had little accuracy.

That afternoon, smoking a cigarette and devouring his C-rations, Joe commented to a couple buddies in their foxhole that pretty soon they wouldn't need grunts like them.

"We'll just drop atomic bombs on them until they give up" he said. His friends, no lovers of combat, readily nodded their heads. As sergeant Phillips came around to tell them they were moving out again, a few Japanese mortar shells impacted to the west, well away. Joe grabbed his M1 carbine, put on his gloves and gasmask, and began advancing southwest with the rest of his squad. As they marched in staggered order a column of tanks, Pershings, came up to support them. Wave after wave of bombers droned over head. They passed a clearing where medics were loading wounded men on stretchers into some of the helicopters that were becoming more and more common. It felt good to know that a medical ship was only a few minutes away.

The battle, as far as Private First Class Joe Hannity could tell, was going as well as it could.

The U.S. uses its third atom bomb, a 12.5 kiloton 'uranium gun' device, to blast a hole in Japanese coastal defenses southeast of Rabaul. Following the advice of Dover project scientists, the atom bomb is detonated at a lower altitude of several hundred feet resulting in a much more powerful blast wave in addition to the heat and radiation effects. The local chaos and devastation caused by the atom bomb severely disrupts Japanese defenses allowing U.S. forces to advance almost 18 kilometers inland by the evening of the first day of the invasion. Before night falls, U.S. forces manage to surround Toma, a strategic town south of Rabaul.

On the same day, U.S. marines also come ashore near Kimbe, on New Britain, as well as Silur and Namatanai on New Ireland. These landings encounter stiff resistance but in all cases the U.S. marines manage to establish solid beachheads by the end of the day.

The atom bomb used in the landing near Rabaul actually detonated almost a mile off its intended target which had been a major supply depot and headquarters for Japanese coastal defenses in the sector. The atom bomb instead detonated closer to the coastline, wiping out a two kilometer long section of jungle, Japanese bunkers, minefields, trenches, dug in mortars, machine gun nests, and other fixed defenses - and killing virtually every exposed Japanese soldier within 2.5 kilometers of ground zero. The blast also knocked out communications into the invasion zone, delaying the Japanese from coordinating any sort of organized resistance for nearly two hours.

The soldiers of the third marine division received large doses of radiation from the fallout of the atomic pillar, but this will not be realized for some time. In the years to come many marines of the third division will die of various forms of cancer and the third marine division's 'doomed boys' will become legendary in the U.S. for their sacrifice. The Japanese soldiers that survived the initial blast and short term radiation effects will, of course, suffer the same fate though their sacrifice will never be as fully recognized by the Japanese people

January 23rd 1948

Japan executes 250 U.S. prisoners of war and threatens to double that amount for each additional atomic bomb used against the Japanese Empire. In addition, highly secret orders go out to a Japanese airfield on Formosa where the first group of Japanese Fokoku heavy bombers has recently become operational and has been training for 'special operations'.

The U.S. angrily condemns the execution of its POW's and vows to "meet Japan's barbarism with a cold determination to end the war quickly, by all means possible".

The introduction of the Japanese Fokoku heavy bomber has been delayed by about eight months due to difficulties in gearing up for large-scale production of 2000+ horsepower engines. Most of these problems have been hammered out over the course of 1947

January 24th 1948

On New Britain the U.S captures Toma after using napalm to 'burn out' several hundred Japanese soldiers holding out in the city's center. To the east U.S. forces are pushing out at a slow but steady pace from the beachhead near Kimbe, with some elements approaching Kimbe itself. On New Ireland progress has been slower - but with total air superiority and a huge advantage in firepower, U.S. forces are slogging forward there as well.

In Norway, the first of several fresh panzer grenadier divisions have begun to disembark from transports at Oslo. Germany has begun a buildup of mechanized infantry in anticipation of a large new spring offensive on the Norwegian front.

January 26th 1948

48 Japanese Fokoku heavy bombers launch a bio-chemical attack against Manila on the main Philippine island of Luzon. Of the 48 bombers involved in the attack, 36 will successfully drop their ordinance on Manila and 27 will successfully return to their airfield on Formosa. The bombers drop a mix of biological and chemical agents on several densely populated portions of the largest Philippine city, including old-fashioned mustard and chlorine/phosgene gas as well as bio-bombs containing virulent strains of plague and anthrax.

Despite the relatively small number of aircraft involved in the attack, some ten thousand Manila residents are killed or severely wounded by the immediate effects of the choking and blistering agents, and as many as five times that number suffer light to moderate effects. It will take weeks, months in some cases, to clean up the areas that were worst hit by mustard gas. Worse than the direct casualties themselves will be the indirect effects on the people of Luzon. Spurred on by exaggerated rumors and a fear of the unknown, tens of thousands of Manila residents will begin to stream away from Manila and into the perceived safety of the countryside, a countryside with little in the way of proper sanitation or medical facilities - an excellent environment for a biological agent.

The effects of the bio-bombs will not be immediately evident, indeed the U.S. and Philippine authorities will not even be aware of the biological aspect of the attack for several days. 

U.S. air defenses around Luzon were relatively weak as the Philippine theatre of operations had been relatively quiet since the Japanese evacuated Luzon. U.S./Philippine air defenses consisted mostly of out-dated prop fighters with a service ceiling below that of the Fokoku bomber. There were a small number of Philippine P-51 Mustangs tasked to defend Manila and these were able to intercept some of the Japanese bombers, but not all of them.

As it turned out, weather conditions were ideal at the time for a chemical attack - winds light enough to prevent the gasses from dispersing rapidly, thus maximizing lethality. The Japanese specifically targeted the densest neighborhoods to attain the most possible casualties.

The bio-bombs used were of two varieties, a bomb which dispenses plague-infected fleas and a bomb which delivers an aerosolized 'cloud' of extremely virulent anthrax spores. The effects of the anthrax spores will begin to become evident within a few days, as will the effects of the plague-bombs.

January 27th 1948

The U.S. strongly condemns the use of chemical weapons by Japan while the Japanese defend the attack as "an act of self defense in the face of the evil atomic weapons employed by the United States".

Quietly, shipment orders begin to filter to various army depots around the U.S. - massive quantities of napalm, mustard gas, and phosgene are about to begin moving towards the Pacific. Japan has already sent out such orders, and chemical warheads are already arriving at frontline Japanese ammunition depots and airfields from the jungles of the Burma-Malaysian frontier to the lava-rock slopes of tiny islands in the central Pacific.

Escalating to the use of chemical and biological weapons seems like a logical Japanese response to the U.S. use of atomic weapons. This is a Japan that is still well in the fight, not a Japan that has been battered back to its homeland as was the situation when the Japanese surrendered following the atomic attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in our timeline.

January 29th 1948

After a series of high level meetings, the U.S. and Britain decide on a shift in grand strategy in the war against Japan. The U.S. will assume full responsibility for all operations in the south and central Pacific regions, allowing the British to concentrate their limited resources in the southeast Asian theatre. In addition, eventual operations against the Japanese home islands will be a purely U.S. campaign. The British are simply too occupied in Europe, Africa, and the middle east to play a further role in the Pacific. Within days British, Australian, and scattered Free French and minor Alliance forces in the Pacific will begin to shift, with all major naval, air, and army forces moving into southeast Asia from positions across the south Pacific.

On Luzon, the effects of the biological aspect of the Japanese raid on Manila are beginning to be felt. Hundreds of cases of severe 'pneumonia-like' and 'flu-like' symptoms have begun to appear in area hospitals and some of these show obvious signs of bubonic plague.

January 30th 1948

It has now become evident that the Japanese attack on Manila included a biological aspect. Thousands of sick people have begun to flood Manila hospitals, many showing clear signs of bubonic plague and some other highly lethal infection. A few, the worst cases, have already begun to die.

February 2nd 1948

With thousands now dead on Luzon from the plague and what has now been identified as anthrax, the U.S. publicly confirms what has been rumored for several days and promises to "hold Japan accountable for its actions". The mass movement of people fleeing Manila has forced the U.S. to quarantine the city, resulting in several instances of rioting and looting as well as clashes between civilians and U.S./Philippine troops enforcing the quarantine. In the countryside around Manila, the plague has taken hold and is flourishing in the squalid camps established by refugees from the city. The U.S. begins shipping massive amounts of medical aid to the area, but there is simply not enough antibiotics to treat everyone.

In the end, some 15,000 Philippine civilians on Luzon will die from inhalation anthrax within the first few days after the Japanese raid and another 50,000 or so will die of the plague in the weeks and months after the raid, putting the total casualties at some 75,000 killed in the immediate weeks following the attack and three times that number wounded or otherwise weakened. Persisting anthrax spores and plague-infected rodents will continue to account for thousands of deaths for years to come. The attack has a psychological 'terror' effect that goes beyond the actual physical deaths.

Orders have already gone out for a general strengthening of air defenses from the Philippines and northern Australia to Hawaii and the U.S. west coast. U.S. military planners now have their eyes firmly set on Formosa. Not only would taking that island make the Philippines easier to defend, it would also be a great staging base for eventual operations against Okinawa.

I believe these casualty figures are realistic - taking what we know about the Japanese bio-chemical program from our timeline and then projecting it forward by three years, it seems likely that the Japanese would have found ways to effectively weaponize plague and anthrax.

February 4th 1948

British and U.S. forces unleash a new offensive along the Burma frontier. The offensive is taking place on two primary fronts.

In the north, along the border between Burma and northern Thailand, twenty divisions of Indian infantry, some 300,000 men, smash into six well-entrenched Japanese and Thai divisions, some 90,000 men, in the rugged terrain west of Tak. This Indian army group(with some British and U.S. support in the form of limited mechanized units, special forces, and air support) has been tasked with seizing the lowlands of western Thailand. The Indian attack opens with a massive artillery barrage along a 20 kilometer portion of the front. The RAF and USAAF support the initial thrust with carpet bombing of Japanese troop concentrations at the points of attack as well as numerous, and massive, raids on transportation and supply infrastructure across northwestern Thailand. Due to problems with coordination between the various services involved, some Allied bombers will drop bombs on friendly Indian forces, resulting in hundreds of 'friendly fire' casualties. Initial progress is slow, as expected, due to the rugged terrain and the strength of the Japanese and Thai fortifications.

It is the southern attack where most of the British and U.S. ground forces are involved. 180,000 allied soldiers(mostly British, U.S. and Australian) and some 1000 tanks crash across the border to the west of Nam Tok, with the ultimate goal of capturing Bangkok. Another 150,000 U.S. and British forces attack directly south down the coast of Japanese-occupied southern Burma. The Japanese are strongest in the region west of Bangkok, but they have a series of strong defensive belts north of Mergui as well. Along both parts of the southern offensive Japanese resistance is fierce, but their general lack of heavy anti-tank weaponry is hindering their efforts. U.S. and British Pershings and late-model Shermans are virtually impervious to most Japanese anti-tank guns. The Japanese do have several armored divisions based out of Bangkok as a mobile reserve but their tanks are primitive by western standards and Japanese armored-doctrine is years behind the cutting edge.

In the air, along both of the fronts, the allies achieve total air superiority - destroying many Japanese aircraft on the ground in the first hours and overwhelming the rest with superior numbers and superior tactics. The Thai air force, what little of it there was, suffers the most - losing nearly all of its aging aircraft within the first 60 minutes.

On the same day, in the middle east, the British open their long-planned invasion of Iraq. British armored forces and mechanized infantry attack from Kuwait, Saudi-Arabia, and Palestine in a stunning three-way attack on the minor Axis nation. As British and commonwealth forces begin a speedy advance on the ground, a much more contested battle begins in the air. The Luftwaffe has had a heavy presence in Iraq to defend the Iraqi oil fields from British bombing raids. Now the Luftwaffe squadrons there find themselves fighting for their very existence as British forces are already closing in on their southern bases around Basra by the end of the first day of the offensive.

Iraqi and German engineers begin destroying bridges along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in a move designed to slow the anticipated British advance towards Baghdad.

To Be Continued...