Global Consciousness Change

Numerous trends indicate that the industrial era is on a collision course with nature--from ozone depletion to climate change, rainforest destruction, and environmental pollution. The global ecological crisis is compounded by social, economic, and spiritual challenges that are equally daunting. Is there a countervailing set of indicators that shows that we humans may be waking up to our predicament? Is there a set of trends that shows that we are beginning to consciously organize ourselves to respond to the ecological, social, and spiritual challenges we face?

The objective of this inquiry was to discover whether global culture and consciousness are significantly changing in such a way that new patterns of values and approaches to living are emerging. To discover whether this is so, we examined a number of the most comprehensive global and U.S. surveys of the past decade. We organized this inquiry into five thematic question areas:

Is the global communications revolution fostering a new global consciousness?

What is the extent of humanity's global ecological awareness and concern?

Is there a shift underway toward "postmodern" social values?

Is a new kind of experiential or first-hand spirituality emerging?

Is there a shift underway toward more sustainable ways of living?

From this inquiry, we have concluded that a new global culture and consciousness have taken root and are beginning to grow in the world. This represents a shift in consciousness as distinct and momentous as that which occurred in the transition from the agricultural era to the industrial era roughly three hundred years ago. Because communications technologies are a powerful force driving the emergence of this new epoch, it would be convenient to call it the "communications era." But that name would be ill-suited since the most distinctive feature of this emerging era is not technological change, but a change in human consciousness.

This change in consciousness has two primary features. First, there is a further awakening of our unique capacity to be self-reflective--to stand back from the rush of life and, with greater detachment, observe the world and its workings non-judgmentally. Second, from this more spacious perspective, the Earth (and even the cosmos) are seen as interconnected, living systems. Because of these two features, we are calling this emerging change in culture and consciousness the "reflective/living-systems" paradigm or perspective.

Because of survey limitations, it is impossible to estimate with any accuracy the percentage of the world's population moving toward a reflective/living-systems way of life. In the U.S., a conservative estimate is that 20 million people--10 percent of adults--are consciously exploring new ways of living that seem consistent with this paradigm. While this group is a relatively small percentage of the U.S. population, we believe they represent an important harbinger of changes in global culture and consciousness.

In 1992, over 1600 senior scientists, including a majority of the living Nobel laureates in the sciences, signed and released a documented entitled Warning to Humanity. In it, they stated powerfully the need for fresh approaches to thinking and living. They declared that "human beings and the natural world are on a collision course . . . that may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know." They concluded by giving the following, simple warning to the human family:

We, the undersigned senior members of the world's scientific community, hereby warn all humanity of what lies ahead. A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.¹

Although human societies have confronted major problems throughout history, the challenges of our era are unique in one crucial respect--they now embrace the entire Earth as a whole system. Never before has humanity been on the verge of devastating the Earth's biosphere and crippling its ecological foundations for countless generations to come. Never before has the entire human family been required to work together to build a sustainable and meaningful future. Never before have so many people been called to make such sweeping changes in so little time.

Albert Einstein observed that problems cannot be solved at the same level at which they are created. This insight seems profoundly relevant today as we humans need to step back and gain a whole-systems perspective if we are to respond effectively to massive ecological problems. The "ecological" challenges we face are not even purely physical. Many are social and spiritual as well. It is difficult to imagine a positive future that does not value, integrate, and balance three major ecologies:

A physical ecology that is sustainable--where we live in such a way that present generations can meet their needs without compromising the Earth's ability to support future generations.²

A social ecology that is satisfying--where we value rich and meaningful relationships of all kinds--in families, neighborhoods, and communities (including the Earth-community, with all its lifeforms).

A spiritual ecology that is soulful--where we consciously appreciate and celebrate the deep mystery and miracle of everyday life.

To create a future that harmoniously integrates these three ecologies, the human family will need a new way of looking at the world--in short, a new paradigm.

What is a paradigm? Willis Harman gives a definition that we find very useful: A paradigm is "the basic way of perceiving, thinking, valuing, and doing associated with a particular vision of reality."³ A civilization's paradigm shapes how we see and understand the nature of reality, our sense of self, and our feelings of social connection and purpose. Paradigms shape not only our thoughts, but our very perceptions and experience of life. When a civilization shifts from one paradigm to another that shift goes to the very core of our lives, and represents much more than a change of ideas.

Retired Canadian Ambassador James George writes about the deep nature of paradigm shifts in his book Asking for the Earth:

I have been struggling to convey the idea of a paradigm shift intellectually. But . . . it is not just an idea, it is an experience; and experiences take place in the moment, in bodies with feelings. So do paradigm shifts. They first infiltrate your mind, then they grab you in the gut; only then do you "get it" and act.⁴

Civilizational paradigms have persisted for at least centuries and usually millennia. At the level of human civilizations, a paradigm shift is a very rare occurrence. It has happened only a few times in human history--specifically, during the transitions from the hunter-gatherer era to the agricultural era, from the agricultural era to the industrial era, and from the industrial era to the fast-emerging communications era. Paradigms are stable and enduring ways of perceiving and relating to the world. They persist until they generate problems that cannot be solved; these problems then become the catalyst for triggering the shift to the next paradigm.⁵When we first enter a new civilizational paradigm (such as moving from the agricultural era to the industrial), we experience new freedom and creative opportunity. As we fulfill the potential of a given paradigm, however, that paradigm eventually becomes a constricting framework. Its partial or incomplete nature leads to a crisis, which in turn leads to a breakthrough into the next, more spacious paradigm. A new level of learning and creative expression ensues.

As the world's senior scientists have warned, the industrial era paradigm is now generating far more problems than it is solving. The only way the human family can understand and solve these problems is by shifting to a larger paradigm that includes the entire Earth as a living system. Such a transformation seems to be underway. Peter Drucker, the well-known management expert, is just one observer who believes that the Western world is undergoing a paradigm change:

Every few hundred years in Western history there occurs a sharp transformation. Within a few short decades, society--its world view, its basic values, its social and political structures, its arts, its key institutions--rearranges itself. And the people born then cannot even imagine a world in which their grandparents lived and into which their own parents were born. We are currently living through such a transformation.⁶

With the explosive growth of mass communications, a new global consciousness and culture are emerging. Already a majority of the world's people have access to television and are being profoundly influenced by the communications era. The rapidly emerging "global brain" is weaving the human family together into a new level and intensity of relationship. The communications revolution is pervasive. The combined power of the computer Internet, television networks, global satellite systems, cellular telephones, fiber optics, and many more devices has created a perceptual framework within which even those who are agrarians or industrialists in their daily work will increasingly orient themselves.

As pervasive as the communications revolution is, it seems to be taking place within a larger and deeper revolution in consciousness and culture. We are living in a time of paradigm shift. What should we call the emerging paradigm? In this report, we are calling it the "reflective/living-systems" paradigm or perspective. This name incorporates the two primary features of this perspective.

The first is our growing capacity for self-reflection. Many times it has been observed that where animals "know," only humans have the capacity to "know that we know." We have the ability to observe ourselves and our world as if from a distance. Humans can stand back and see ourselves in the past as well as project ourselves into the future. We are not locked in, but can reflect on our situation and make fresh choices. When we can see our actions in the mirror of self-reflective knowing, we become self-directing agents of our own evolution. It is this capacity for conscious, free choice that will be essential if humanity is to choose a path of communication and reconciliation to create a sustainable future.

A second hallmark of the new consciousness is its "whole-systems" or "living-systems" view. For the last several hundred years in Western industrial societies, a materialistic-scientific mindset has dominated. In this view, what is "real" is the material world as perceived by our senses and organized by our intellect. The universe is seen as filled with lifeless matter and empty space. It is only natural that what is important is social status and material success. By contrast, in the emerging perspective, seemingly empty space is not empty, but filled with immense amounts of energy. Our cosmos is seen as a living, unified system. This new paradigm moves from a view of separation and isolation to one of profound wholeness and interconnection. At a fundamental level, people are viewed not as separate beings, but as intimately involved with one another in the deep web of life.

If everything is intimately interconnected, then the quality and integrity of all kinds of relationships are of paramount concern. A natural expression of this paradigm is to bring into balance all the key relationships in our lives--inner and outer, masculine and feminine, personal and global, intuitive and rational, and more. This perspective tends to bridge differences, connect people, celebrate diversity, harmonize efforts, and look for higher common ground. A reflective/living-systems orientation brings a unifying approach and offers hope in a world facing deep material, social, and spiritual fragmentation.

Table 1 presents a preliminary view of the contrasts that seem to be emerging between the industrial/materialistic paradigm and what we are calling the reflective/living-systems paradigm.

Books and articles describing the possibility of a new paradigm coming into existence have been proliferating for the past 20 years. World leaders have spoken about the emergence of a new global perspective. Is a reflective/living-systems paradigm developing in the world? That question is the focus of this study.

THE INDICATORS OF CHANGE

We began by reviewing the extensive "new-paradigm" literature (a selected list is included as Appendix A). Next, we developed a list of the major recurring themes that we believe indicate the emerging worldview. From this list, we selected several dozen practical indicators that, taken together, could potentially reveal whether a larger pattern-shift in perceptions and values is actually occurring (these indicators are listed in Appendix B). Using these indicators as a guide, we searched a wide range of sources--such as Internet sites, data bases, libraries, surveys, reports, and indexes.

It was very difficult to find relevant information on a global scale. Few global surveys have been done, and none have looked specifically for the emergence of a new global consciousness. Consequently, we supplemented limited global information with more extensive information regarding the U.S. population. This overview report, then, is a work in progress drawn from many different sources.

We have grouped the findings from this inquiry into five major thematic areas. Here, briefly, are the primary questions we asked to determine whether a reflective/living-systems perspective is emerging in the world:

1) Global consciousness and the communications revolution. Is a new level of communication emerging in the world? Is the global communications system--with its network of computers, televisions, telephones, and satellites--becoming the social equivalent of a central nervous system? Are we creating a paradigm-changing "global brain" for the planet?

2) Global ecological awareness and concern. To what extent is the population of the Earth aware of and concerned about the health of the planet? Are people aware that life as we know it may not be able to be sustained? Are people willing to sacrifice economic growth for the ecological health of the planet?

3) Postmodern social values. Is there a shift from material values to a concern for environmental sustainability? Is there greater tolerance for ethnic, racial, and sexual differences? Is there a shift from institutional authority to personal authority? Is there a conscious shift from power to partnership in gender relations?

4) Experiential spirituality and a new consciousness. To what extent are people practicing some form of personal or "lay spirituality"--for example, taking time to meditate, do yoga, practice the "inner-game" of sports, or in other ways exploring their personal, subjective experience? To what extent do people view nature as a sacred and spiritual presence?

5) Sustainable ways of living. Is there a shift toward ecological lifestyles that integrate inner and outer aspects of living into a balanced whole? Are there shifts in work, diet, consumption patterns, transportation, relationships, or other areas that express a desire to live more sustainably?

These five themes do not cover all of the major areas of change in consciousness and culture. For example, seismic shifts seem to be occurring in business, medicine, the arts, science, education, and voluntary associations--and these are not addressed adequately by this brief overview. Although an even broader scope of inquiry is needed, the five thematic areas selected for this initial inquiry seem to cover a sufficiently wide scope of life to indicate whether a new pattern of perceptions and values may be emerging in the world.

Global Consciousness and the Communications Revolution

A foundation of global communication and understanding already exists for the human family. It is evident in many examples of successful, planetary-wide cooperation:⁷

The world weather system merges information from more than 100 countries every day to provide weather information globally.

Nations around the globe have cooperated to eradicate diseases such as smallpox, polio, and diphtheria.

International civil aviation agreements assure the smooth functioning of global air transport.

The international telecommunications union (ITU) allocates the electromagnetic spectrum so that television signals, cellular phones, and radio signals are not overwhelmed with noise.

Beyond the basics of weather, health, aviation, and telecommunications, the human family is being exposed to music, art, food, and ideas from different cultures. We are beginning to develop an appreciation for the unique tastes and qualities of different parts of the world. Globalization of consciousness is also fostered by televised events that reach billions of persons--for example, the Olympic games or the LiveAid rock concert (which produced an outpouring of aid for famine victims in Africa). Pictures of Earth from space are now common and give humanity a look at its home from afar. Turning our gaze to the heavens with the Hubble telescope, we can peer to the very edges of the universe. Humanity is acquiring a realistic sense of its identity as a single species that inhabits a small and precious planet within an immense cosmos.

The question of questions is whether the human family will build upon a global perspective and a history of successful communication and cooperation to come together to create a positive future. It was our ability to communicate that enabled humans to evolve from hunter-gatherers to the verge of a planetary civilization. New levels and types of communication will enable us to build a workable and meaningful future. Because many of the world's problems are human-caused, they are fundamentally communication problems. Because many of the world's potentials depend on human cooperation, they are fundamentally communication challenges. Fortunately, at the very time that we need an unprecedented capacity for local-to-global communication, we are in the midst of a communications revolution and have the necessary tools in abundance.

Growth in Telecommunications

The rapid growth of telecommunications has been a powerful engine in the globalization of human awareness. For example:

A century ago, it could easily take months to communicate with someone elsewhere in the world. Today, with the international telephone system, it is possible to connect with any one of nearly two billion persons around the world in a matter of moments.8

Figure 1
Growth in Computing Speeds

Source: Intel Corp.; Dataquest, Inc. Business Week, December 9, 1996

Currently, a single advanced satellite or an advanced fiber optic cable has the capability to send the entire Encyclopedia Britannica with all of its illustrations every three seconds.⁹ Future prospects are even more breathtaking. Joseph Pelton analyzed the emerging capabilities and concluded that, "In another quarter of a century these are likely to be . . . systems that could send the equivalent of the entire U.S. Library of Congress in less than 10 seconds."¹⁰
The computing and communications industry "shows every sign of continuing its breathtaking pace for at least one or two decades more (e.g., doubling performance every one or two years), implying a revolution in capability every five to ten years."¹¹ This is illustrated by Figure 1, which shows the increase in the speed of computers.
Worldwide, an estimated 40 million persons were Internet users in 1996. This number is expected to double to nearly 80 million in 1997,¹² and to jump to nearly 200 million by 1999.¹³
In the U.S., in particular, growth of the Internet has been extremely rapid. During 1995, activity more than doubled to approximately 10 million users.¹⁴This means that more than half of the people using the Internet at the end of 1995 were not using it 12 months before. Personal use has been growing rapidly as two-thirds of all users in the U.S. now tap into the Internet from home, primarily for e-mail. A striking 41 percent of all Internet users in the U.S. reported using e-mail on a daily basis.

The think-tank SRI International has done research on the psychological character of Internet users. Their results are striking. One group--called "actualizers," who are well-educated and intent on self-actualization--constitutes 10 percent of the U.S. adult population but 50 percent of Internet users.¹⁵ The SRI International research indicates that a sub-culture sympathetic to new paradigm perspectives is having a disproportionate role in shaping the emerging culture of the Internet. In turn, the Internet culture and consciousness will provide an increasingly important frame of human reference for activities around the world.

The research firms CommerceNet and Nielsen Media Research recently described the impact of the Internet, based on their study of users:

Our sociological and economic structure is being rewritten, the corporate world is dramatically realigning its strategies, and individuals are showing a long-inhibited eagerness to explore. Nothing less. The Internet and the countless possibilities associated with the Internet are quickly reshaping the way we conduct business, and redefining the way we relate to one another.¹⁶

Mark Pesce, who has written extensively about the Internet, describes the World Wide Web as "an innovation as important as the printing press--it may be as important as the birth of language itself . . . in its ability to completely refigure the structure of civilization."¹⁷

Figure 2
Fiber-Optic Lines to Subscribers in Developed Nations

Source: Bell Northern Research

A Global Brain for the Species

When a planetary scope of human connection is combined with the functional intelligence of computers, a new level of human awareness and communication--a "global brain" or "species mind," so to speak--could potentially emerge. Robert Entman alludes to this when he writes, in his introduction to a report on the future of universal telecommunications service, that "a substantial increase in the functional intelligence of the species seems imminent."¹⁸ Peter Russell describes the emergence of the global brain as follows: "Billions of messages continually shuttle back and forth, in an ever-growing web of communication, linking the billions of minds of humanity together into a single system."¹⁹

How soon might the global brain achieve some sort of critical mass and turn on? An important indicator comes from a report by the Institute for Information Studies:

The universal global telecommunications network will serve as the main... telecommunications conduit for economic, social, cultural, and political exchange among the peoples of the planet Earth in the 21st century. This network may start to come into place around the second decade of the 21st century.²⁰ [emphasis added]

Because fiber-optic cable will likely be the medium of choice for high-density routes among developed countries, the rate of its use is a meaningful indicator of the rate at which the global brain is being wired. Figure 2 shows an estimate by Bell Northern Research for the growth of optic fiber.²¹

Because a fiber-optic infrastructure is just being established around the world, and because computing and communications speeds are still making quantum jumps every few years, we are probably still a decade or two from the awakening of some form of rudimentary, but powerful, species-mind. What might be the impact of this emergent species-mind? Pelton gives us a glimpse of what this may mean when he describes the social impact of global television:

Today CNN has a global data base of information and contacts which allows it to uplink news information from almost anywhere to anywhere in a matter of minutes or at the least hours. In such an environment, political repression, human rights violations, and even war are increasingly difficult to get away with without having world opinion weighing heavily in against the "bad guys." The thawing of the Cold War and the destruction of the Berlin Wall are in some ways the result of instantaneous electronic news.²²

Countervailing Trends

If this is a taste of our communications future, then the emerging global brain may be a powerful force for encouraging humanity to live more compassionately and harmoniously. Of course, there is the danger that it will be used not to awaken humanity to larger evolutionary possibilities, but to focus on consumerism and escapism instead. There is also the possibility that people will become divided into the "communication rich" and "communication poor," depending on their level of access to the Internet and its growing array of networking tools and services. That may already be happening. For example, developed countries have 15 percent of the world's population, but 71 percent of all telephone lines.²³ Although the telecommunications revolution is transforming life rapidly in more developed nations, it is leaving behind a huge population in countries whose economies are still in transition from agriculture to a more diversified base.

Global Ecological Awareness and Concern

A potent indicator of a reflective/living-systems perspective is whether ordinary people around the world are conscious of the declining environmental health of the planet. And if they are aware, do they express a willingness to act on their awareness?

Health of the Planet Survey

There are few international surveys of attitudes toward the global environment. Perhaps the most important inquiry has been the Health of the Planet survey, conducted in 1993 by Gallup International.²⁴ Involving 24 nations, Gallup's survey was the largest environmental opinion poll ever undertaken. The objective was to survey citizens in a wide range of nations, which varied in both geographic location and levels of economic development. The results provide an in-depth look in both rich and poor nations at citizens' views regarding environmental issues. In writing about the survey, its director Dr. Riley E. Dunlap concluded: "The Health of the Planet survey demonstrates virtually world-wide citizen awareness that our planet is indeed in poor health, and great concern for its future well-being."²⁵

It is often assumed that persons living in poorer nations are so busy meeting the challenges of everyday living that they are less concerned about environmental problems. Dunlap found, however, that "environmental problems are salient and important issues in both wealthy and poor nations, and residents of poor nations express as much concern about environmental quality as do those living in wealthy nations."²⁶ The strong concern by people in developing nations for environmental quality may often be due to their closer contact with unhealthy water, air, and food. Whatever the reason, people living in both industrialized and developing nations see the health of the planet as a serious problem. Figure 3, drawn from the Health of the Planet survey, shows that people in both poor and wealthy nations have similar levels of concern about the environment.²⁷

Figure 3
Personal Concern about the Environment--
Percentage Who Say "A Great Deal" or "A Fair Amount"

Source: Gallup International

Gallup explored global concern about the environment by asking people how serious they believed different problems to be--including loss of animal and plant species, loss of rainforests, global warming, ozone depletion, and air pollution. Concern was high across the entire range of indicators. Figure 4 shows responses to a question about the seriousness of the loss of species in the world.

Despite the economic problems in many areas of the world, majorities in most of the 24 nations surveyed gave environmental protection a higher priority than economic growth, as Figure 5 indicates. Figure 6 shows that majorities in 11 of 12 industrialized nations and half of the developing nations surveyed indicated a willingness to pay higher prices for such protection.²⁸

Figure 4
Loss of Animal and Plant Species--
How Serious Do You Personally Believe This to Be in the World? Percentage Who Say "Very Serious" or "Somewhat Serious"

Source: Gallup International

One finding from the survey seems particularly promising with regard to the eventual possibility of global reconciliation around a shared vision of a sustainable future. When asked who is "more responsible for today's environmental problems in the world," people from rich and poor nations were not as polarized as they are widely assumed to be. The most frequent response was that industrialized and developing countries are "both equally responsible."²⁹There is little evidence of the poor blaming the rich for environmental problems, or vice versa. Instead, there tends to be widespread acceptance of mutual responsibility.³⁰

Figure 5
The Environment vs. Economic Growth--
Percentage Who Choose Protecting the Environment over Economic Growth

Source: Gallup International

Figure 6
Percentage Who Say They Are Willing to Pay Higher Prices to Protect the Environment

Source: Gallup International

Countervailing Trends

While the Health of the Planet survey shows that a majority of people express strong support for environmental protection, several indicators (such as the annual State of the World Report from the Worldwatch Institute) show that expressed concern is not being translated into decisive action. There is also a question whether the Health of the Planet survey reflects the attitudes of people in the rapidly developing economies of Asia. In a survey in China in October 1994, for example, the Gallup organization asked people which attitudes towards life came closest to describing their own. Sixty-eight percent said that to "work hard and get rich" came closest to describing their approach to life, while only 10 percent selected "don't think about money or fame, just live a life that suits your own taste."³¹ Clearly, consumerist attitudes are flourishing in China (and elsewhere in Asia). As has been the case in the U.S., these attitudes are likely to come into conflict with demands for improving the environment. Although a global consciousness seems to be awakening, it is still losing the race with ecological decline.

Another important expression of a reflective/living-systems perspective is an interrelated set of "postmodern" social values, such as belief in gender equality, tolerance for others, engagement with family and community, a need for meaningful work, concern for environmental sustainability, and the placing of subjective well-being over material success. To see whether these social values are becoming more prevalent, we turned to one of the most valuable resources available for understanding world values.

World Values Survey

The massive World Values Survey, 1990-1991, was drawn from 43 nations, representing almost 70 percent of the world's population and covering the full range of economic and political variation.³²Figure 7 shows the percentage of the world's population covered by this survey.

Ronald Inglehart, global coordinator for the World Values Survey, used a computer to analyze mountains of data and to cluster nations according to similar value patterns. He analyzed this unprecedented body of data on values and beliefs in an article in the International Social Science Journal entitled "Changing Values, Economic Development, and Political Change." Inglehart concluded that, over the last 25 years, a major shift in values has been occurring in a cluster of a dozen or so nations, a change that he calls the "postmodern shift."³³ This shift in values has been growing in societies such as Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Britain, Canada, and the United States. Here are some major attributes of the postmodern shift:

People in the postmodern cluster of nations are losing confidence in all kinds of hierarchical institutions, including government, business, and religion. There is also declining trust in science and technology to solve problems, and a general questioning of authority.

At the same time that people in these nations are losing trust in traditional institutions, they are placing more emphasis on personal authority or the authority that comes from an inner sense of what is appropriate.

People feel relatively secure materially, and tend to be more concerned with their subjective well-being than with maximizing their material well-being. As economic gain fades from top priority, people give much greater importance to their desire for meaningful work and the quality of the work experience.

There is a tendency for economic growth to be subordinate to concerns for environmental sustainability,

Although postmodernism is associated with a decline in traditional religious involvement, it is linked with a growing interest in discovering personal meaning and purpose in life.

People from these nations show a greater tolerance for ethnic, sexual, and political differences.

There are new roles for women that allow for greater self-realization.

This cluster of closely correlated, postmodern values seems to characterize perhaps a dozen nations out of the 43 analyzed. Inglehart concludes that "a generalized shift toward postmodern values does seem to be taking place."34 He views this shift as a rational one, calling it "a shift in survival strategies, from maximizing economic growth to maximizing survival and well-being through lifestyle changes."35

Awakening to Gender Issues

A shift in social values is also reflected in the international poll Gender and Society that the Gallup organization conducted in 22 countries in Asia, Europe, North America, and Latin America in 1995.36 These countries, with a combined population of three billion people, account for a majority of the world's population. Here are Gallup's key findings:

People in most countries believe society currently favors men over women.

As Figure 8 shows, in most countries, majorities believe that the position of women in their country has improved in the past five years.

Large majorities in all countries say that job opportunities should be equal for men and women.

As Figure 9 shows, in all countries surveyed but one, more people believe their country would be governed better if more women were involved in politics. (In El Salvador, the results were equally distributed in statistical terms.)

While gender discrimination still exists around the world, these findings from 22 nations suggest there has been a widespread awakening to gender issues and concerns.

In the United States, surveys for the National Foundation for Women Business Owners give an indication of the growing role of women and how their priorities differ from men's:

Women-owned businesses now employ one out of every four workers in the United States. The number of firms owned by women grew 78 percent between 1987 and 1996, nearly twice the rate of increase in the number of all U.S. firms.³⁷

Women are bringing a different set of priorities to their business operations. For example, women business owners participate in volunteer activities at a significantly higher rate than the average business owner, and their volunteerism increases as the business grows and matures.³⁸

Research by the Higher Education Research Institute, which has been surveying American college freshmen for the past 30 years, has identified another U.S. trend that suggests women are developing new attitudes. The Institute's surveys describe the impact of the women's movement on the educational plans and career aspirations of college freshman women. In 1996, 67 percent of these women aspired to advanced degrees, up from 39 percent in 1966. Entering freshman women are now seeking graduate degrees and aspiring to careers as physicians (or dentists) and lawyers at rates slightly higher than men.³⁹

Growth of Democracy

Since democracy has deep roots in the industrial era, the spread of democracy does not, by itself, indicate that a new paradigm is emerging. However, self-determination, individual responsibility, and participation are strong themes in the reflective/living-systems paradigm--making the growth of democratic forms of government an important indicator area. Here is how the organization Freedom House describes the current status of democratically elected governments in the world:

Today, 3.1 billion persons out of a world population of 5.7 billion live under democratically elected governments. While not yet a universal standard, democracy has deepening and widening roots in all parts of the world. . . . That 61 percent of all countries and nearly 55 percent of the world's population live under governments and legislatures elected in generally free and fair political processes represents a landmark shift.⁴⁰

Particularly relevant are new processes that expand governance from representative democracy to participatory democracy. With the telecommunications revolution, new forms of participatory democracy are emerging. For example, in 1992, CBS invited U.S. viewers to participate in an hour-long poll in response to President George Bush's State of the Union speech. During the hour, CBS News tallied more than 314,000 calls from around the nation--and turned away 24 million other callers who got busy signals.⁴¹ As the information superhighway evolves, it will enable citizens to develop effective forms of electronic town meetings to give feedback to elected representatives.

The broadening of democracy has been supported by changing gender roles and expectations. According to Gallup surveys, in the United States there has been a dramatic increase--from 33 percent in 1975 to 61 percent in 1992--in the percentage of people who believe the country would be governed better if more women held political office.⁴²

Countervailing Trends

Although surveys show that postmodern social values are emerging in a cluster of nations, there are powerful countervailing trends that also need to be acknowledged. In particular, economic disparities are growing throughout the world. The gap between rich and poor nations, already a chasm, is growing wider rapidly. According to the 1992 United Nations Human Development Report, "In a world of 5 billion people, we discovered that the top billion people hold 83 percent of the world's wealth, while the bottom billion have only 1.4 percent."⁴³ In everyday terms, among the poorest one-fifth of the world's people, each person lives on less than the equivalent of one dollar per day. Although a growing percentage of people in postmodern nations may be shifting their focus from consumerism and material comfort to sustainability and meaningful community, it is not clear if this shift will influence the newly modernizing economies of Africa and Asia.

Another group of trends that runs counter to postmodern values concerns the status of women around the world. Although humanity is awakening to basic issues such as gender equality, women still account for nearly 70 percent of the world's poor and illiterate, and about 75 percent of all refugees.⁴⁴ At the national level, only 10 percent of the world's lawmakers are women.⁴⁵

Another countervailing trend is the continuing cultural alienation and diminished opportunity resulting from racism. In a 1996 U.S. poll by the Washington Post, 53 percent of adults said that racism is a "big problem" in our society, and 35 percent said it was "somewhat of a problem."⁴⁶

As postmodern values are emerging in the world, they are coming up against the stark realty of economic inequities, violence against women, and gender and racial discrimination. If the people of the Earth do embrace more compassionate values, those values will surely include concern for these and many other pressing issues, such as ending needless hunger and homelessness, attention to those who are tortured and oppressed for their beliefs, and care for the physically and mentally ill. How the human family meets these challenges will be a major test of our emotional and evolutionary intelligence.

Vaclav Havel, president of Czechoslovakia, stated in a 1990 address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress that "without a global revolution in the sphere of human consciousness, nothing will change for the better . . . and the catastrophe towards which this world is headed--the ecological, social, demographic, or general breakdown of civilization--will be unavoidable."⁴⁷

Is a revolution occurring in the sphere of human consciousness? Is a new kind of spirituality growing? As noted earlier, a core insight from the World Values Survey was that, around the world, people are withdrawing trust from traditional institutions and placing greater trust in personal empowerment. They are increasingly trusting an inner, subjective sense of what is right and appropriate. Beyond this level of generalization, global surveys do not exist that would reveal changes in how people approach spirituality. We therefore focused on the U.S. experience as a way to gain preliminary insight into what may be occurring worldwide.

Consciousness and Spirituality Trends in the U.S.

As we looked at changing spirituality, we thought it was important to acknowledge core beliefs that have remained nearly unchanged over decades. For example:

The percentage of Americans who believe in God or a universal spirit was 94 percent in 1976, and 96 percent in 1994.⁴⁸

The percentage who believe that their soul will live after death was 75 percent in 1965, and 80 percent in 1996. ⁴⁹

While Americans still believe in God (or a universal spirit) and the immortality of the soul, surveys show that traditional religious institutions are no longer the engines of growth for spirituality. Veteran pollster George Barna has explored trends in spirituality in the U.S. for many years. He concludes his book The Index of Leading Spiritual Indicators with this observation:

The religious scene in America today is undergoing fundamental changes of seismic proportions. Like almost everything in our culture today, there is nothing sacred anymore, even in the realm of the sacred. Americans are questioning everything about religion and faith. . . .⁵⁰

What Barna sees emerging from this spiritual upheaval is a personalized, customized form of faith, which minimizes rules and absolutes, and bears little resemblance to the "pure" form of any of the world's major religions.⁵¹ The following trends suggest some of the changes occurring in American spiritual experience:

There seems to be a merging of spirituality and ecological concerns. A 1994 study found that 55 percent of Americans considered nature to be sacred and/or spiritual.⁵²

Their spiritual experiences may be unorthodox, but Americans are reporting an upsurge of interest in religious and spiritual matters, as Figure 11 indicates.⁵⁶

Viewed together, these trends seem to show an increase in what might be called experiential spirituality, where people are turning to their inner experience for guidance. For many, their approach to spirituality represents a complex and deeply personal synthesis that draws from several of the world's wisdom traditions.⁵⁸

Holistic Health and Unconventional Therapy

Another useful indicator of a reflective/living-systems paradigm is the use of alternative forms of medicine that involve a significant mind-body connection. In "Unconventional Medicine in the United States," a study published in 1993 in the New England Journal of Medicine, David Eisenberg and his collaborators found that unconventional therapy is used more often in the U.S. than previously reported: "An estimated one in three persons in the U.S. adult population used unconventional therapy in 1990."⁵⁹ Moreover, the amount of money spent out of pocket for unconventional therapy--such as relaxation techniques, massage, chiropractic, lifestyle diet--was roughly equal to the out-of-pocket costs that people paid for conventional hospitalizations (approximately $13 billion).⁶⁰ Eisenberg further estimated that Americans made more visits to providers of unconventional therapy in 1990 than to all primary care physicians (425 million visits compared to 388 million visits).⁶¹

Whether measured by use or spending, unconventional modes of therapy and health care are an integral part of the culture and economy of both Europe and the U.S. Other indicators of this trend include:

In Europe, the trend for physicians to use alternative therapies is "overwhelming," according to a recent Time magazine article. "Out of 88,000 practicing acupuncturists [in Europe], 62,000 are medical doctors."⁶²

Americans spend $165 million per year on homeopathic remedies, and the amount is rising roughly 35 percent each year.⁶³

A June 1996 survey on the subject of health found that 23 percent of U.S. citizens say they "regularly do yoga, meditation, or other stress reducing exercises."⁶⁴

A 1996 U.S. survey found that 82 percent of the respondents believed in the healing power of personal prayer, while only 13 percent did not. ⁶⁵

Countervailing Trends

Overall, trends in spirituality and holistic health suggest that there is movement toward a reflective/living-systems perspective. However, these trends do not yet constitute the "global revolution in the sphere of human consciousness" that Havel considers necessary if we are to avoid planetary catastrophe. Psychiatrist Roger Walsh has written, "The state of the world reflects our state of mind; our collective crises mirror our collective consciousness."⁶⁶ If this is so, we are in a race between the awakening of a global consciousness and ecological and social calamity.

To see if people are acting on their beliefs, we examined the data on recycling in the United States. A study by R.W. Beck Associates estimated that in 1994 the value of commonly recycled materials in municipal programs was roughly $5 billion.⁸⁰ As of 1995, 41 states had comprehensive waste-management laws, and 44 had recycling or waste-reduction goals.⁸¹ A Gallup/Waste Management poll in the spring of 1995 found that:

Are people willing to pay more for their ecological concerns? In 1971 and again in 1990, national surveys asked Americans if they would be willing to pay 15 percent more for groceries if all packaging could be recycled for use again. Figure 13 shows the trend results.⁸³

Countervailing Trends

While there are trends toward more sustainable ways of living--particularly in the postmodern cluster of nations--these may be overpowered by the impact of rapid industrialization in nations such as China and India. If these countries, with their enormous combined population of roughly two billion persons, embrace the "modern values" of materialism (particularly as practiced in the U.S.), they could overwhelm trends toward more ecological ways of living. From a global perspective, it is too early to tell if sustainable ways of living are actually gaining ground in the dynamic race between modern and postmodern values.

In the preceding sections, we looked at studies that would reveal a global shift in perspectives and values. We now turn to an in-depth survey that explored the possibility that a change in culture and consciousness is occurring in the United States.

Paul Ray of American Lives, Inc., conducted this pioneering inquiry in 1995.⁸⁴ His random national survey explicitly looked for a new pattern of living, and discovered the emergence of a rapidly growing sector of the U.S. population. He calls this group the "cultural creatives" because, he says, these are "the ones who are coming up with most new ideas in American culture, operating on the leading edge of cultural change."⁸⁵ According to Ray, the emergence of the cultural creatives in the U.S. since the 1970s may represent the birth of a new and distinctive social force that he describes as an integral culture. A defining characteristic of integral culture, says Ray, is its toleration for ambiguity--an ability to look beyond either/or choices and embrace a larger whole. An integral culture is inclusive by its very nature and will seek to include and integrate the best aspects of both traditional and modern cultures into its postmodern expression.⁸⁶

Thirty years ago, Ray states, there were so few people in this emerging culture that no one bothered to count them. By 1995, however, the core group of cultural creatives had grown to represent about 10 percent of the U.S. adult population, or roughly 20 million people. They are pioneers in integrating different aspects of their lives. As a group, they have both a strong inner or spiritual life and a strong outer or ecological concern. They also have a global outlook and interest (a love of the foreign), as well as a strong concern for local community. They enjoy mastering new ideas, are socially concerned, and advocate "women's issues" and ecological sustainability. They tend to be upper-middle class, and nearly twice as many are women than are men. Ray summarizes the distinctive values of cultural creatives using these five themes:

Ecological sustainability, beyond environmentalism: This new culture wants to rebuild neighborhoods and communities; is working for ecological sustainability; views nature as sacred; wants to stop corporate polluters; is living more simply; and is willing to pay the costs for cleaning up the environment.

Globalism: Two of the top values for this group are love of the foreign and ecological sustainability.

Feminism, relationships, family: The fact that women are a strong majority of the cultural creatives is a major key to understanding this culture. Ray's study also shows that women are more concerned than men are with relationships of all kinds--from family to neighborhood and community.

Self-actualization, spiritual practice, and alternative health care: The core cultural creatives are building ways of living that connect inner and outer, material and spiritual, into a meaningful whole. They have a new sense of the sacred that brings together personal-growth psychology, spiritual practice, and service to others. They also tend to make use of holistic and alternative health care. Although the spirituality of the cultural creatives is very complex and diverse, a clear value they share is being aware or "not sleepwalking through life" (as 89 percent of the core group in the survey said).⁸⁷

Social conscience and social optimism: Cultural creatives are conscious of the condition of the world and are working to heal society and themselves. With their positive approach to challenges, both personal and ecological, they are relatively optimistic about the future.

This emerging culture has the potential for rapid growth. Ray shows that, in addition to the "core cultural creatives," there is another group that he terms "green cultural creatives." The greens constitute 13 percent of the U.S. adult population, or roughly 24 million persons. Like the core cultural creatives, they have high levels of ecological and social concern, but give a lower priority to personal growth, either spiritual or psychological. Says Ray, "they appear to take their cues from the core cultural creatives and tend to be middle class."

In summary, a core group of roughly 10 percent of U.S. adults seems to be pioneering a new culture; a much larger group is sympathetic with and responding to these values. Together, these groups total roughly 24 percent of the U.S. adult population, or 44 million persons. The presence of the green cultural creatives means that those in the core group are not alone. There is a large reservoir of sympathy and support from which a new cultural paradigm can grow.

Ray's study raises important questions about paradigm change at a global level. Is a similar pattern-shift in priorities, perceptions, and values occurring elsewhere? Are cultural creatives pioneering paradigm change in Latin America, Africa, Asia, and elsewhere through the world?

While a general shift in global values and perceptions seems to be underway, it will not be possible to know with precision what is developing until further global surveys specifically explore these changes. Despite its limitations, we can draw several conclusions from this overview study:

Global consciousness change and the communications revolution. A deep and profound revolution is occurring in our ability to communicate at a global level. In the next several decades, the communications revolution will enable humanity to achieve a quantum increase in its functional intelligence as a species.

Global ecological awareness and concern. A sizable majority of the world's people seem to be concerned about the global environment. Residents of poorer and wealthier nations express nearly equal concern about the health of the planet. Majorities of people around the world say that they give environmental protection a higher priority than economic growth and that they are willing to pay for that protection.

Postmodern social values. Over the last 25 years, a cluster of closely correlated, postmodern values has emerged in about a dozen industrialized nations. This postmodern shift represents a change in survival strategies. People are shifting their priorities. Economic growth is no longer their main focus; instead, they are making lifestyle changes to maximize sustainability and subjective well-being. There is also a shift toward greater gender equality, democratic participation, and reliance on personal rather than institutional authority.

Experiential spirituality and a new consciousness. The World Values Survey indicates that, in a postmodern cluster of about a dozen nations, people are turning away from traditional religious institutions and losing trust in hierarchical institutions in general. U.S. survey research suggests that a significant spiritual shift may be underway as a growing number of people seek to balance their inner exploration with a meaningful connection to the outer world.

Sustainable ways of living. A majority of the Earth's people seem to be aware that the human family would benefit from living sustainably. Further investigation is needed to see if this awareness is being translated into new ways of living. In the United States, surveys indicate that significant numbers of Americans are attempting to balance the material and non-material rewards of life; changing their diets by buying organic foods and eliminating meat; and acting on their environmental beliefs by recycling.

Do these trends suggest that a new pattern of global values and perceptions is emerging? Considered individually, they are more suggestive than conclusive--and rightly so. Individual trends cannot reveal a larger pattern. When they are considered together, however, we believe that these trends do reveal that an overall pattern-shift in global values and perceptions is occurring. A new global paradigm is emerging.

What fraction of the world's population is involved in this paradigm shift? Given survey limitations, it is impossible to answer this at a global level. For the United States, we have Paul Ray's conservative estimate that 10 percent of the adult population seems to be pioneering what we are calling a reflective/living-systems paradigm and culture. While only this small fraction of the U.S. population appears to be wholeheartedly engaged in the process of paradigm change at present, we believe that this group is at the leading edge of a broader wave of global cultural change.

Although the trends we have examined suggest that a reflective/living-systems paradigm is emerging in the world, we cannot conclude this report without reiterating that other paradigms and many countervailing forces are at work as well. Materialism and consumerism threaten the ecological health of our planet. Poverty and discrimination may overwhelm compassionate intentions. Although there is a profound communications revolution underway, much of what is being communicated is shallow and short-sighted. These are turbulent times. It is not clear which forces will ultimately prevail, and in which direction they will lead. Nevertheless, we believe that, as ecological necessity converges with communications opportunity, the reflective/living-systems paradigm is likely to grow in relevance and importance.

In this section, we turn to a more personal assessment of the emerging reflective/living-systems paradigm. Although they are speculative, we draw seven major conclusions from this inquiry.

First, we find it remarkable that humanity can now engage in a conversation about paradigm shifts. Until recently, we did not have the language and concepts to discuss changing paradigms. Now, we are becoming conscious of the mindset that we share as a society. When bumperstickers can proclaim "Question the Dominant Paradigm," we believe that the popular culture has begun to wake up to the possibility of new ways of looking at the world.

Our second major conclusion is that, although different perceptual frameworks are in evidence around the Earth, it seems plausible that, by midway through the twenty-first century, a majority of humanity could be living within the reflective/living-systems paradigm. The half century or so in between will be a time of unprecedented transitioning among different perceptual frameworks. This process will be complex and turbulent. Pioneering changes in living will be occurring at a time when there is no overarching paradigm to orient human activities. The early decades of the twenty-first century are likely to be a time of intense confusion and conflict over which paradigm holds the greatest promise as an aligning vision for humanity.

A third conclusion we draw is that the human family is moving swiftly toward a time of great reckoning. We face tests and challenges that are more global, unyielding, and complex than anything we have encountered before. Within the lifetimes of a majority of those alive today, the citizens of the Earth will make choices that will have a deep and lasting effect on the future of the planet. We are the first generation of global citizens. The choices we make will establish an overall mindset and approach to living with which humanity will live for countless generations. What we do matters at this pivotal time.

Fourth, beyond the age-old clash of cultures, there is the deeper promise of global reconciliation within a paradigm that draws from the highest potentials of humanity. Marc Luyckx, writing for the European Commission, notes some of what is possible in foreign policy with a new paradigm:

The main problem and danger in actual foreign policy is that we are still looking at new problems with old eyes. Changing vision or paradigm allows us to see that the danger today is probably less the conflict between cultures and religions, than the conflict between paradigms. In that new vision a totally new type of dialogue is thinkable. Why not discuss with the pre-modern cultures how to jump over modernity-secularization into the new post-industrial age? The change of vision could represent . . . a powerful path to peace and a new platform of dialogue between the world cultures.⁸⁸

Our fifth conclusion is that the reflective/living-systems paradigm may be pointing toward the emergence of what has been called an "integral culture"--an idea that has been discussed around the world for more than 50 years.⁸⁹ In other words, if the reflective/living-systems paradigm continues to expand and deepen, it will grow into an integral culture. As we develop our capacity for reflective consciousness and knowing connection, we can achieve a higher level of integration and balance among the polarities that pull at our lives--inner and outer, masculine and feminine, collective and individual, and so on. With its inclusive and reconciling nature, an integral perspective offers the hope that the human family will overcome its many differences and work together to build a sustainable, satisfying, and soulful future.

A sixth conclusion we draw is that, although the world needs a shared perceptual framework from which to build a sustainable future, this does not mean we should seek cultural homogeneity and human uniformity. After surveying the growth and decline of the world's civilizations, Arnold Toynbee found a master process at work in the disintegration of societies, which he called a "tendency towards standardization and uniformity."⁹⁰ Diversity within unity is the mark of a growing species-civilization. As we seek global reconciliation around a sustainable future, we need to support a broad range of cultural diversity at the same time. Each community or region needs to be free to develop in ways that are uniquely suited to its culture, ecology, climate, and other characteristics.

Finally, the reflective/living-systems paradigm is more than a new way of thinking; it is a perspective that invites us to open to a new level of aliveness, interconnection, and mystery in our everyday lives. In shifting paradigms, we shift from feelings of existential isolation in a lifeless cosmos, to experiencing profound connections in a living universe. In trusting the hidden wholeness of life, the human family can learn to join the inner world of our collective psyche and soul to the outer world of civilized action.

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INDUSTRIAL/ MATERIALISTIC PARADIGM	REFLECTIVE/ LIVING-SYSTEMS PARADIGM
The cosmos is made up of mostly dead matter and empty space and is not "alive."	Our cosmos is a unique kind of "living organism" and, as a whole system, is fundamentally alive.
We are floating through vast reaches of empty space, and most of life seems to lack any larger sense of meaning and purpose.	The entire cosmos is a unified system. Each action is woven into the deeper ecology of the universe. Everything we do matters.
Consciousness--when viewed from a reductionistic, mechanistic perspective--is a by-product of biochemistry and is located in the brain.	Consciousness--when viewed from an integrative, living-systems perspective--is an ordinary capacity that permeates the universe and provides a reflective capability appropriate to each entity within the universe.
The goal in life is material success and social achievement.	The goal in life is to develop a balanced relationship between our inner and outer lives--to live in a way that is sustainable and compassionate.
The emphasis is on conspicuous consumption. The "good life" depends on having enough money to buy access to pleasure and avoid discomforts.	The emphasis is on conscious consumption. The "good life" is an ever-changing balance of inner and outer, material and spiritual, personal and social, etc.
Identity is largely defined by material possessions and social position.	Our sense of self grows through our conscious, loving, and creative participation in life.
Emphasis is on personal autonomy and mobility.	Emphasis is on personal growth and community.
The individual is defined by his or her body and is ultimately separate and alone.	The individual is both unique and an inseparable part of the larger universe. Our being is not limited to our physical existence.
It is natural that we who are living use lifeless material resources for our own progress.	It is natural to respect all that exists as integral to the larger body of life.
Cutthroat competition is the norm. You compete against others to make a killing.	Fair competition is the norm. You cooperate with others to earn a living.
The mass media are dominated by commercial interests and are used to promote a high-consumption culture.	The mass media awaken to the challenge of sustainability and begin to explore more workable and meaningful approaches to living.
Nations adopt a "lifeboat ethic" in global relations.	Nations adopt a "spaceship Earth ethic" in global relations.
The welfare of the whole is left to the workings of the free market or government bureaucracies.	Each person takes responsibility for the well-being of the world, enabling high levels of decentralization and freedom at the local level, and a sustainable harmony at the global level.