Letter from John Decas elaborates on issues discussed at Decas Cranberries growers' meeting

Inventory and surplus address, Some figures corrected

2/10/00

To Whom It May Concern:

On February 4, 2000 I received a copy of the Ocean Spray Annual Report. The report included how many cranberries were delivered to and sold by Ocean Spray in the years 1995-1999. Since I had a Decas grower meeting the next day, I decided to calculate from the Ocean Spray data, along with available data from the Cranberry Marketing Committee, how much of existing inventories was in the hands of Ocean Spray compared to Independents, and to distribute this information at my grower meeting.

Given the fact that Ocean Spray claims that the surplus was created outside the co-operative without providing any documentation regarding that claim, I believe it is important to put the surplus in perspective. How can we proceed in discussing a proposed marketing order if Ocean Spray and all other major handlers deny holding any surplus berries?

In my haste to analyze the Ocean Spray and Cranberry Marketing Committee data in time for my grower meeting, I copied the CMC statistics incorrectly, and I am re-submitting my analysis as enclosed. Also enclosed is a copy of the Ocean Spray data to which I refer.

In the original analysis I had to begin with an estimate of the Ocean Spray 8/31/94 inventory figure which I had originally set at 800,000 barrels. In the corrected analysis I have decided to reduce the estimate to 400,000 barrels to eliminate any possible claim by Ocean Spray that my figure is excessive. By plugging in this estimate to the confirmed data in the Ocean Spray annual report, I have been able to estimate the Ocean Spray 8/31 inventories from 1994 to 1999.

Those estimates make up the first column under the "8/31 Inventory" section, and when subtracted from the actual CMC figures in the third column, we get the Independent inventory figures as listed in the middle column through 1999. I am convinced that my calculation of the Ocean Spray-Independent 8/31/99 inventory figures is correct within a margin of error of not more than 2%. I will leave it to others to distinguish what portion of the August 31 inventories is pipeline needs and how much is surplus.

I have no data that allows me to break down the Independent inventories, but it is safe to assume that Northland holds the major portion of this inventory. I also assume that Ocean Spray and Northland hold most, if not all, of the surplus.

I believe that we can now proceed on issues related to surplus with a better understanding of the facts. If Ocean Spray wishes to challenge my calculations or continue the claim that the Independents hold the surplus, then they should reveal the data that supports that claim.

Until then, any comments by them regarding the Independent surplus have no merit.

I believe that those who created the surplus and who actually hold the surplus should not insist that those of us who have kept our supplies in line with our sales should be forced to dispose of any portion of our handle.

John C. Decas

8/31 Inventory

* Ocean Spray figures taken from 1999 Ocean Spray Annual Report

** Source - Cranberry Marketing Committee Report