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AN EMINENT colleague has been warning for some time that the United States is becoming a rogue state, an irresponsible and untrustworthy power that has little respect for international norms. We should no longer laugh at him after the US Senate's rejection on Tuesday of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
This deplorable decision will be interpreted around the world as confirming that the US Congress no longer cares for arms control or the interests of other states, including America's closest allies. Although the Clinton administration has fought hard for this Treaty, American policy is increasingly being shaped by people with isolationist, or, even worse, a supremacist agenda. They want to expand military programmes, weaken international institutions, and run the world by flaunting power. If Republican antagonism towards Clinton has been behind the decision, that only heightens the irresponsibility of the Congressional vote.
The CTBT aims to halt the further development of nuclear weapons and put a stop to the environmental damage wrought by nuclear explosions. It stands alongside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as the most cherished instrument of multilateral arms control. It was concluded in 1996 after many years of arduous negotiation, thanks in large part to the energy and vision of American governments.
Without US support, the CTBT cannot enter into force. That can only happen after ratification by 44 states identified for their abilities to acquire nuclear weapons. Around half those states (including Britain and France) have already ratified, and the international community has been looking to the US government to lead the effort to bring Russia, China, India and others fully into the Treaty. Until Tuesday, that seemed feasible if still difficult. Today, its ability to respond to any resumption of testing, has been gravely weakened.
The US has no good reason for testing again. This is patently an attack on arms control, and not just on the test ban. America conducted more than 1,000 nuclear tests between 1945 and 1992 and has manufactured tens of thousands of warheads.
It needs no more information and experience to retain confidence in its arsenal (if Britain and France have decided they can do without testing, why not the US?). The CTBT's opponents in Washington claim that explosive testing is necessary to ensure the safety of warheads, and that the Treaty's seismic networks will not prevent states from cheating by disguising explosions. Both arguments are specious.
Britain and France opposed the CTBT when the US, backed by Russia, sought its negotiation in the early 1990s. Britain was forced to change tack when the Clinton administration forbade testing in the Nevada desert in 1992, much to the chagrin of the Ministry of Defence (the testing of Trident warheads was incomplete). France was shamed into accepting the CTBT by the outcry that followed its resumption of testing at Mururoa in 1995. Both countries have since made amends. They alone among the nuclear- weapon states have ratified the Treaty (they did so on 6 April 1998). Indeed, the whole European Union is now bound by the Treaty.
The depth of European commitment was evident in last Friday's unprecedented letter of support from Chirac, Blair and Schroder to the New York Times. Britain has also been one of the main architects of the Treaty's verification system and has been prominent in setting up the organisation in Vienna charged with its management - an organisation that is headed by a German. American trust in arms control has been dented by the frustrations of dealing with Iraq, Russia, China and other recalcitrant states in recent years, and by concerns about new security threats.
That said, an ominous pattern in US behaviour has been emerging that suggests darker forces are at play. In the dilution of the Chemical Weapons Convention's verification provisions and the feeble US contribution to the strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention. In the attempt to water down limits on emergency deployments in the CFE Treaty. And above all, in the efforts to deploy anti-missile defences and dismantle the ABM Treaty.
The list seems to grow longer by the day. The common factors are an increasing disregard for international law and opinion, disdain for international institutions, an obsessive pursuit of self-interest, resistance to outside verification on its territory, and a desire to exploit America's technological supremacy to the full. When the world's leading power grudges its support, the whole edifice of arms control is bound to be shaken. The danger is that respect for the Non-Proliferation Treaty and other international agreements will diminish, and that it will again be open season for nuclear zealots. More than that, the co-operation between the five weapon states inside and outside the UN Security Council that has been such a feature of the post-Cold War order is in peril.
China and Russia's disaffection is obvious, but it will be increasingly difficult for Britain and France to show common cause with the US if its policies continue on their present track. America's allies have so far held back from open criticism of Washington on the CTBT, the ABM Treaty and other security matters. They have been reluctant to swell the chorus of complaint coming from Russia, China and the non-aligned movement. The gloves will now have to come off.
It is unacceptable for responsible states that the US, of all countries, should be embarking on this destructive course. A policy of appeasement towards the American far right, whether by the US administration or by foreign governments, is becoming too dangerous for us all.
The CTBT's resuscitation is essential if trust in US judgement and leadership is to be restored. If there is any comfort to be gleaned from this appalling vote, it may be that the many supporters of this vital treaty within the international community - and within the US - will become even more determined to defend it, together with other instruments of arms control. The first priority must be to preserve the moratorium on testing in India, Pakistan, China and Russia. This will require great diplomatic energy, including close co-operation between Britain, France and the non-nuclear weapon states.