Flash memory apps, downloadable software and the Internet will all be driven by microcontrollers

By Bill Arnold

Whether or not microcontrollers containing processor, memory and other functions were the first system-on-a-chip devices may be debatable, but nearly everyone agrees that the number of embedded systems applications for the workhorse chips is exploding. These applications include embedded Internet devices, network processors, PDAs, information appliances, Web pads and much more.

There are an astonishing number of different things happening with embedded processors, all driven by a number of different forces, according to Cary Snyder, analyst with Micro Design Resources (MDR), Sunnyvale, Calif.  ....

An area poised to take off is embedded Internet applications, according to Kevin Kilbane, marketing development manager of microcontrollers for Motorola Inc. in Austin. These applications embed low-cost functions in appliances that would use 3Kbytes to 4Kbytes of flash memory vs. 64Kbytes if a PCI-bused approach were used, he explained. An example might be a scanner in a refrigerator door that would note the last carton of milk being used. It would report that via the Internet to an online food delivery service that would then add milk to the customer's shopping list.

There could be 10 to 20 such applications in a home over time, Kilbane said. Actually, the concept of a programmable house isn't new. Twenty years ago, Motorola built as a test concept a microprocessor-driven house in which heating, air conditioning and appliances could be programmed remotely via phones.

To create standards, Motorola has partnered with emWare Inc., based in Salt Lake City, Kilbane said. "We're starting to see initial implementation (of embedded Internet) today (with Invensys Network Systems of London)," he added.

It remains to be seen whether every toaster or coffee pot will be on the Internet, but the concept of having home security and fire sensors hooked up is very attractive, said Ron Cates, PICmicro marketing manager, Microchip Technology Inc., Chandler, Ariz. Wireless Bluetooth and Home RF technologies could play a big role in implementation, he added.

Both Cates and Motorola's Kilbane agree that, although most microcontrollers shipped today are in one-time-programmable (OTP) plastic packages, shipments of reprogrammable flash-based devices are increasing. A problem with an OTP device, as its name implies, is that it cannot be reprogrammed in the field to fix a bug or accept a software upgrade. However, some customers requiring 2Kbytes of code buy 4Kbyte OTP devices for a few cents more so they can program the second half of one upgrade, Cates pointed out.

Reprogrammable flash, of course, is more versatile but has been costlier than OTP. Motorola, for one, is putting a lot of resources into making flash-based devices cheaper, according to Kilbane. Most flash 8-bit microcontrollers are made on 0.7- to 2.0-micron processes, he said. By jumping a process generation from 0.7 micron to 0.25 microns early next year, the company will be able to get five-times more candidate 32-Kbyte devices per wafer, and cheaper ones at that, Kilbane said.

Cates and Kilbane point to intelligent motor control as a promising application arena for embedded processors, which can bring more efficient and economical operation. These advanced feedback-loop designs go beyond PC fans into refrigeration, industrial automation and other applications. Specialized functions could be integrated for pennies a chip, Kilbane said, noting that more than half the energy consumed in the United States is used by motors.

Making it easy for customers to design, debug and deliver products based on microcontrollers is important too, Kilbane said. Software is important here. Motorola offers design aids, software simulators and debuggers on the Web, for example. It's a 24/7 service complete with frequently asked questions and the largest library of application notes in the industry, according to Kilbane. ...

All of these trends play in a microcontroller (MCU) market that is expected to reach $19.2 billion this year, according to IC Insights, Scottsdale, Ariz. Of that, DSPs are the largest segment or 35 percent of the market. Eight-bit MCUs are the second largest segment at 31 percent, 16-bit devices account for 21 percent, 32-bit devices for 8 percent and 4-bit devices for 5 percent. Total unit shipments, which will be 6.4 billion units this year, are expected to grow 24 percent a year through 2004, the firm predicts.

The top-five MCU suppliers are Motorola with $2.6 billion in 1999 sales and an 18 percent market share; NEC Corp. with $1.4 billion and 10 percent; Intel with $1.3 billion and 9 percent; Hitachi with $1.1 billion and 8 percent; and Mitsubishi with $1.1 billion and 7 percent of the market.

The 8-bit segment will remain significant for some time because of such features as embedded flash, small feature sizes and low prices, IC Insights said. At the same time, the 16-bit and 32-bit segments have started to grow rapidly, with increases forecasted to reach 43 percent and 86 percent, respectively, this year.

While continuing to develop 8-bit MCUs, companies such as Motorola, NEC and Hitachi are quickly developing high-end 32-bit controller cores, the firm notes. MCUs come in a great variety of devices. Philips has more than 100 derivatives of its 8051 line and Motorola has 60 versions of its 68HC11 and more than 180 derivatives of its 68HC05 families, IC Insights noted.

Driving strong MCU sales are a robust U.S. economy and strong new home sales, resulting in MCU-laden electronic appliances such as dishwashers, microwaves, and washers and dryers. High auto sales boost the MCU market because it's estimated that a typical car now contains three dozen MCUs, IC Insights said.

DSPs exhibit even better growth, averaging 31 percent a year growth through 2004, starting from $4 billion in 1999, according to IC Insights. Four companies dominate the market. The leaders are Texas Instruments Inc. with $2 billion in 1999 sales and 47 percent market share; Lucent Technologies with $1.1 billion and 26 percent; Motorola with $550 million and 13 percent; and Analog Devices Inc. with $396 million in 1999 sales and 9 percent market share.

Rather than battle TI separately for more market share, several DSP vendors have teamed up, IC Insights observed. Lucent and Motorola have created a joint DSP design center in Atlanta named StarCore. Intel and Analog Devices have also announced a joint venture to produce a new DSP architecture. 1

Electronic News http://electronicnews.com/ September 18, 2000

Embedded Processors by the Numbers
     
by Jim Turley

     About zero percent of the world's microprocessors are used in
     computers. Yup. Every PC, Macintosh, engineering workstation, Cray
     supercomputer, and all the other general-purpose computers put
     together account for less than 1% of all the microprocessors sold every
     year. If you round off the fractions, embedded systems consume 100%
     of the worldwide production of microprocessors.

     Don't believe it? Count how many computers you own or use.
     Probably one or two at work and another one or two at home, right? If
     you're a pathological computer user like me, that total might reach
     closer to a dozen. Now count the number of embedded systems you
     own or use, if you can. Have a digital cellular telephone? There's one.
     A pager? There's another. Don't forget to count your microwave oven,
     washer, dryer, dishwasher, coffee maker, refrigerator, VCR, television,
     video-game console, stereo receiver, CD player, DVD player, portable
     Discman, remote control for the TV, remote for the VCR, remote for
     the stereo, garage-door opener, automatic sprinkler timer, fax machine,
     PDA, answering machine, and so on.

     Check in the garage. Your average car (classic British sports cars
     excepted) has about 15 microprocessors in it. The new Mercedes
     S-class has 63 microprocessors; a 1999 BMW 7-series has 65.
     Where are they all lurking? There's one microprocessor in each
     headlight of a new Lexus, BMW, or Mercedes. There's another one in
     each rear-view mirror. Airbags generally each have their own
     microprocessor. The Volvo S70 has not one, but two CAN buses
     running through it, connecting the microprocessors in the mirrors with
     those in the doors with those in the transmission. The mirrors talk to the
     transmission so that they can tilt down and inwards when you put the
     car in reverse. The radio talks with the antilock brakes so that the
     volume can go up and down with road speed (the ABS has the most
     accurate speed information). The airbags talk to the GPS receiver,
     which talks to the built-in cell phone so that if your new Cadillac gets in
     a serious accident it can call for help and report its exact location. If it's
     stolen, it can call the police and report exactly where it is and where it's
     going.

     I figure the average middle-class household has about 40 to 50
     microprocessors in it—or 55 if you own a PC. There's the famous
     microprocessor on the motherboard, of course, but there's also one in
     every IBM PC keyboard; one on each floppy, hard, and CD-ROM
     drive; one on the 3D accelerator card; and probably one each on your
     modem and your network-interface card. Force-feedback joysticks
     and wheels add even more, as do USB peripherals, printers, SCSI
     controllers, and Zip or tape drives. Even your video-game console
     likely has multiple CPUs. Sega's Saturn game player has four different
     32-bit microprocessors in it. The Nintendo 64 has two; the Sony
     PlayStation has one. Ironically, their success seems to be inversely
     proportional to the amount of computing power each system has.

     Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors one could fit on
     a given amount of silicon would double about every 18 months, and so
     far, he's been right. Personally, I predict that the amount of computing
     power we carry on our person will double every 12 months. As cellular
     telephones get more powerful, as pagers become more capable, and as
     electronics organizers and PDAs become more useful, the amount of
     "personal MIPS" will double annually. (Another irony: Windows
     CE-based palm-size PCs have about 10 times the processor
     horsepower of 3Com's Palm organizer, yet they are noticeably slower.)

     Last year, microprocessor makers built and sold almost 250 million
     32-bit embedded microprocessors. (Source: MicroDesign Resources,
     January 1999) That's one new 32-bit embedded CPU for every man,
     woman, and child living in the United States. That's also more than
     double the number of PCs sold around the world in the same year.
     Seen another way, Motorola sold almost as many 68k chips to
     embedded customers as Intel sold Pentium II processors to PC
     makers. Hitachi's sales of 32-bit chips outstripped AMD's PC sales by
     a two-to-one margin. Heck, even AMD's 29K processors (remember
     those?) were more successful, on a per-unit basis, than IDT's WinChip
     used in PCs.

     Add to that 250 million 32-bit chips the much greater number of 16-bit
     processors, estimated at over one billion per year. Then add another
     billion eight-bit processors, and another billion four-bitters. Suddenly,
     the 100 million PCs, Macs, workstations, and supercomputers don't
     seem like such a big deal.

     So how come all the press and glory goes to Intel and its PC
     competitors? How can a product with approximately 0% of the market
     get so much attention? Well, Intel may have a small slice of the overall
     pie, but it has the biggest slice of one very important pie. (As we've
     seen, Intel does not control the microprocessor market; it controls the
     PC processor market, a major distinction that's frequently lost on the
     six o'clock news.) No other chip maker dominates one product
     category, such as cell phones, printers, or video games, the way Intel
     dominates PCs. And no other chip maker makes the kind of profit from
     these embedded systems that Intel gets from its PC processors. We
     figure the Pentium II costs Intel about $65 to make, vs. the $200 to
     $500 price tag these chips carry. (Note that a 450MHz Pentium II
     costs no more to manufacture than the 350MHz version; they're the
     exact same silicon.)

     All of this, surprisingly, is good news for embedded hardware
     developers. With so much volume, and so many competitors all
     scrambling for your business, prices are low and selection is high. With
     no dominant vendor dictating pricing, competition is fierce. With no
     single chip family cornering compatibility, choices are many and varied.
     Embedded designers, rejoice! Keep up the good work. Let's see how
     we can add to that 100%. 

     Jim Turley is the senior editor of Microprocessor Report. He is also
     a speaker and industry analyst, specializing in microprocessors for
     handheld, portable, and embedded applications. 

Embedded Systems Programming  MAY 1999
http://www.embedded.com/