Events in Dili have led to the serious injury to Jose Ramos Horta and to the death of rebel soldier Alfredo Reinado. They stem from factional conflicts amongst resistance fighters against Indonesia who are part of Fretilin. Ramos Horta is president of East Timor. Xanana Gusmao claims that this was part of an assassination plot against himself. The main winner from these conflicts is Australia. Kevin Rudd announced more troops who will be in East Timor for the long term. Whilst this incident will give Rudd a rationalisation ("we must be responsible for East Timor's stability") the main purpose of these troops is to ensure the safety of Timor's oil for imperialism.
The events in East Timor are deep rooted. Reinado and Ramos Horta were once allies as opponents of Fretilin, the party which led the resistance. When Fretilin was fighting the Indonesians, many were trained in Mozambique using stalinist methods. After all, Mozambique was a former Portuguese colony which was liberated by guerillas. Others in Fretilin sought the support of the west. In doing so they inevitably adapted to the west. Ramos Horta, for example, supported the invasion of Iraq and this was music to the ears of right-wing commentators.
Reinado was a Fretilin fighter who was expelled from the armed forces. He and six hundred others complained about poor representation in the army for the western part of Timor. So he led a guerilla force which was declared illegal. The Australian government has been critical of the Timorese for not arresting Reinado. This is part of the rationalisation for declaring it a failed state.
One of the reasons that it is believed Reinado was not arrested was his alliance with Horta and Gusmao, in disruption aimed to destabilise Fretilin. However, Reinado was an embarrassment to Gusmao and Horta because Australia wanted stability and therefore opposed any rebel forces.
Gusmao and Horta have the clear support of the Timorese population. Fretilin is indeed guilty of stalinist methods which have put the population off side. A victory to Horta and Gusmao is also a victory to Australia. They support imperialist control. They accept military occupation and imperialist exploitation of Timor�s oil. Left-wing opponents point out a degree of complicity between Fretilin and imperialism. They are right. But Fretilin is not the imperialist's preferred option. None of these factions can be supported by us revolutionaries. A revolutionary proletarian alternative must be built. We, in Australia, must reject any intervention military or economic. Workers� action must be organised to fight it. Timor could very well become the next Iraq.