Coldheartedtruth

Coldheart's Truth

Where do the Dems go from here???

To Home Page

To Discuss this and other Truths......

It�s been a couple of days now since what some Democrats are referring to as �black Tuesday�� the disaster otherwise known as the mid-term elections. While we all know that the Republicans made significant, if not historical, gains for a mid-term election, many of us are wondering and debating over what it means on a deeper level.

Some have argued that the whole thing is much ado about nothing� Certainly there are some substantive reasons to believe this.

First and foremost the Democrats picked up governor�s seats, although not as many as they expected. Maybe these victories can be examined for clues as to what went right, and how they can replicate these victories nationally in 2004? Then again, closer examination shows that they had very strong moderate candidates who garnered strong appeal across the board. Yep, too easy�. just find stronger candidates. Get right on that.

Secondly, many of the races that they lost were very close races. Wasn�t like Norm Coleman beat Walter Mondale by 20 pts. But then again, in politics� close just doesn�t cut it. If you�re wondering about this, just ask Al Gore.

Last but not least�. Maybe it was an aberration. After all who ever heard of a mid-term President with mid 60�s approval raising 150 big ones, and visiting states like South Dakota and Missouri 4 or 5 times before a mid-term election. Republicans cannot count on those types of coattails to carry them forever� can they?? No, George W. Bush wont be around forever (unless he claims martial law and declares himself dictator)� so eventually the Republicans will have to carry it on their own. But it certainly begs the question: �why did this work so well for Bush, when it didn�t for Clinton or Reagan??�

More than likely this is something to do about something. The only questions are what is it about, and what can the Democrats do about it??

One thing that I know it is not about, as has been suggested by some of the more bitter Democrats, is the �dumbing down� of the voters. In fact, I would argue the opposite. I would argue that the electorate is better informed and making more intelligent voting choices than ever before. I claim this for a couple of reasons.

The single most important thing that I believe makes us better informed is technology in the area of media. The Internet is a huge influence on most everyone. It allows us to stay up to date, search for information, exchange our ideas and theories with websites, emails and yes� even on political posting boards. Another recent influence is the 24-hour cable news network. CNN, MSNBC, FOXNEWS have given people such as James Carville, Chris Matthews, and Bill O�Reilly rock star status. Suddenly it is hip to be a political junkie� Well if not exactly hip, at least it is not as nerdy as it once was.

Another reason we are more informed is because we are no longer simply told how to vote. Our generation, for the most part, doesn�t vote Republican or Democrat simply because our father voted that way, and our father�s father voted that way, etc� etc�. When we buy a ford, and we get a lemon� we buy a Honda or a Chevy next time after comparing them in consumer reports. We don�t buy another ford simply because we always have bought fords. I believe this holds true for a lot of things, politics included. Granted� many still buy a car because Honda or Nissan made a cool commercial, but those are the same people who are swayed by sound bites and personalities of individual candidates, and probably would ask�. �Who is James Carville??�

What ?? Me Worry ??

Dumbing Down ??

So Now What ??

So what does this mean?? Am I suggesting that the more informed voters are becoming Republican?? Nope, in fact these more informed voters are likely to be more independent of party, just like they are independent of car loyalty� and the campaigns and political messages that guide their votes become like the consumer reports articles that guide their car purchase. What I am suggesting is that the more informed voters will need to hear a different message than the rest of the electorate� they need the consumer report article, not just a cool commercial. I think that the Republicans sold that message better, while keeping better tabs on their base.

Herein lies the inherent problem. Traditionally the Republicans have a smaller but more consistent base. There are fewer of them, but they vote. Meanwhile the Democrats have a larger, but more fickle base. They need to be encouraged to come out and vote, thus the results of the Democrat�s �get out the vote efforts� have become synonymous with the success and failure of that election. However, the success of this effort isn�t all about knocking on doors, and calling people on the phone. The base needs a reason to vote, they need to hear a message that inspires them to vote, and they need to become energized.

Traditionally what energized the Liberal Base has been anti-something-bad rhetoric. Being against tax-cuts for the wealthy, corporate corruptions, racism, sexism, global warming, evil justices who want to do away with abortion, and right wing military madmen who want to blow up the planet�. have been consistent selling points that have riled up the Democratic base and got them out to the polls. But does this message sell to the consumer reports generation of voters?? Probably not anymore than typical right wing rhetoric of being against baby killers, pussy pacifists, people who cheat welfare,
people afraid of guns, evil trial lawyers, and crazy judges who want to let criminals free to roam the streets.

So what happens if both sides sell their message to the fickle, independent, informed voter with real debate on real issues, and offering real solutions to real problems?? For Republicans they have to win the sale and appease their base voters by not straying too far to the left� For Democrats they have to win the sale� but still keep the base riled up to come vote. It is harder for Democrats, because if their base believes that they have abandoned them... they don�t vote. The Republican base, a less fickle type, doesn�t mind the fact that they are trying to argue the issues and solve problems� it�s probably part of the reason that they are Republicans in the first place. The rhetoric may be necessary for the fringe of the party, but it really isn�t necessary for the bulk.

The Solution ??

Well, if you�re a Democrat� there is an easy solution. Just do both.

Well, herein lies the new problem. Campaign Finance Reform eliminated soft money contributions, a staple in the Democratic campaign contributions in the past. Republicans have always out gained the Democrats in hard money contributions� giving them a future distinct money advantage. Couple that with the fact that it takes less for the Republicans to inspire the bulk of their base� and it gives them a distinct advantage of having more money to spend on the independent voters. Democrats really can�t do both� at least not effectively. So they must choose�. do they inspire their base, go back to the root of the Democratic party and become the old fashion party of the underclass?? Or do they shift gears and move to the center, hoping that the base will follow them?? What they decide, and how they react�. may determine whether or not they become a �rebuilding� project, or a legitimate contender win back power in 2004.