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| Coldheart's Truth |
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| Coldhearted look at the 2002 congressional elections. |
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| 2002 is shaping up to be an important election and promises to decide our nations direction for the foreseeable future. With the questions about the War on Terror, the economy, corporate scandals, and the big downturn on Wall Street� the rhetoric is already flying and campaigns should be rip, roaring and ready to turn up the collective heat in our political world. The question is�. Who is poised to take advantage of the current events, and who is poised to be on the defensive ?? THE ISSUES Right now, it would appear that the Democrats hold most of the cards with the voting public in regards to corporate scandals, and how to regulate the corporate world�. They also have advantages in healthcare reform, prescription drugs, environmental issues, and increased ammunition in their opposition to social security privatization. The Republicans still own the advantage as Hawks in the War on Terror, and some of the other traditional advantages in conservative ideals�and while the President�s armor has been dented in recent weeks, and his coattails don�t look to be much of an issue� his fundraising is going at record pace, and promises to help in many of the key match-ups�. Where the race may turn, however, is in regards to the economy, how it performs in the next couple of months, and whom the public ultimately trusts to guide us through. While the economy is traditionally an issue where the general public looks to the Republicans, the problems with the economy (mostly Wall Street) seem to be interdependent on the corporate scandals. If the Democrats can press their edge on the corporate control issue, and successfully tie the Republicans to these scandals, it will be a political windfall for them. In essence, stealing one of the Republicans stronghold base issues out from underneath them. Turning a traditional Democratic weakness into an advantage. What the Republicans are hoping for is a quick passage of the Corporate Abuse Legislation, a market climb, and some peace and quiet from any more corporate scandals. Our public has little use for yesterday�s news; and a quick market rebound, along with the already better economic numbers, could push the issue into the background a bit. The obvious wildcard into the whole issue debate is the War on Terror. While this is still at the tops of many of American�s issue list, everyday that goes along without significant movement in Afghanistan against Al Qaida� every day void of a new terrorist attack�. is another day that the issue becomes another thing filed under yesterday�s news. Suddenly it seems we kill more wedding guests than Al Qaida, and the war on terror becomes less and less a huge patriotic issue for the Republicans. Similar to the issues on the economy, is that the status quo is good for the Democrats and bad for the Republicans. A change in perspective is needed for the Right� Maybe a new Bin Laden sighting, with credible information as to his where-a-bouts, along with daily updates to keep the public amused. �The Final Hunt For Bin Laden� could scroll across the screen on CNN, while �Bin Laden Dead or Alive� might scroll along the Fox News updates�. Obviously this is all a weak alternative to the bigger question, and bigger possibility� Will we find the types of direct ties from Iraq to Al Qaida that will garner/force support from the left for a full scale invasion to remove Saddam ?? Only time will tell� WHAT WE KNOW We know that right now the Republicans own a razor thin margin in the House, and that the Democrats hold an equally razor thin margin in the Senate. And that there are enough races in play that it could be anyone�s ballgame, so to speak. House of Representatives � All 435 seats are up for grabs in the House of Representatives. The Republicans have about 180 seats locked up, while the Democrats have about 173 seats locked up. With one seat pretty much guaranteed to an Independent incumbent that leaves about 81 seats to be in play. While other will tell you that as few as 40 seats are really up for grabs, the political climate right now makes me hesitant to be more bold. Senate - 34 of the 100 seats are being contested in this year�s election. Twenty seats are currently held by Republicans, while only fourteen Democrat incumbents are facing reelection challenges. Two prominent Republicans (Phil Gramm and Jesse Helms) are bowing out of politics leaving vacant spots. With 9 of the 20 Republican seats nearly guaranteed to remain Republican� the party of the President is assured no less than 38 seats. Likewise 6 of the 14 seats open on the other side of the aisle are locked up for the incumbents, leaving the Democrats a guaranteed 42 seats. With the one independent seat voting with the Democrats they need only 8 of the 19 seats that are �up for play�� COLDHEART LOOKS INTO THE CRYSAL BALL House of Representatives � Of the 81 races up for the grabs 40 or so are currently leaning Republican, and this is the real battleground. With the political climate as it is, I am expecting any race leaning Democrat to go that way. I am also expecting most if not all of the toss-ups to go to the Democrats as well. If this holds true then the Democrats will own 214 seats plus what ever they can steal from the Republican leaning races. What they need to do is steal 4 of those races and hold serve on all others. This is a tough challenge, and Gephardt�s guarantee of 40 new seats aside, I think they come up just short. Republicans - 218 Democrats - 216 Independents - 1 Senate � Almost every incumbent in the Senate is currently leading or in a dead heat with the opponent. Right now, the Republicans look vulnerable in about 7 races while the Democrats look vulnerable in only 6 or so. Again, I look for the Democrats to keep control of the seats they currently have, and pick up one or two from the Republicans. Democrats � 52 Republicans � 47 Independents � 1 COUPLE OF GRUDGE MATCHES TO WATCH Florida Governors race � Look out !!! The Presidents Brother versus Former Clinton appointee Janet Reno. Ready for the 2000 Florida election debate to be rekindled?? With all the cries from the left to take out the frustrations of 2000 on Jeb Bush, Reno and her national reputation has anted up to the challenge. Will she get that angry minority vote to carry her to a vindictive victory for the Democrats ?? Knocking off the President�s brother would be a big national blow to Republicans, and create a rage of chants of �I told you so� from the left. While a victory from Bush would not stop the screaming about the 2000 election, it would make those screams ring a bit more hollow. Texas Senate race � The race for the vacant Phil Gramm is a important one for both sides, with Trent Lott calling the race the most important race of the election. John Cornyn has had stumps from everyone from Lott to VP Cheney. One would expect that he may see Mr Bush along the way as well. A loss of this seat in the President�s home state would be a big blow. Minnesota Senate race � Another grudge match for both Parties. Nobody votes against the President and his policies more than Paul Wellstone� and that is actually a statistical fact. His opponent is the business savvy popular ex-mayor of St Paul, Norm Coleman. Many people say that Norm Coleman was handpicked by the President to run against Wellstone. In fact, Minnesota House Leader Tim Pawlenty cancelled his bid for senate endorsement after a phone call from Dick Cheney on his way to the press conference to announce his candidacy. Pawlenty�s bowing out allowed Coleman a free ride through endorsement and primary, and allows him to focus on Wellstone, who many see as vulnerable. Recently admitting to having Multiple Sclerosis, Wellstone is going back on his pledge to only serve two terms, and the �champion of the little guy� has recently been criticized for several large out of state contributions from the Hollywood jet set. While Coleman was an outstanding mayor of St Paul, revitalizing the downtown, as well as bring professional hockey back to Minnesota, he is not without his issues. He is being called a opportunist after changing parties a few years back, and there is video and audio of him praising Wellstone and his achievements back when Coleman was a Democrat. Questions of being a lackey for the administration is also hounding him after the Cheney phone-call. The President himself has been to Minnesota to stump and raise money twice already, and is expected back at least two more times before November. |