Josep of Tracha is on his first journey as a mercantyler when he finds himself in the steep fjords of Orbaal. He duly consults his economic map of H�rn and notes the Ivinians have a surplus of copper available for trading. He trots himself over to the proper clan-house and negotiates what he thinks is a fine price for several tons of copper ingots which he then has loaded aboard his coastal-trading nivik. He is still congratulating himself for his shrewd dealings when the captain spoils the mood by asking, "where do we go from here?"
Josep glances at his economic map of H�rn -- "That's odd, it only shows me where the surpluses are, not the shortages. I wonder who needs copper?"
In an effort to answer that question, I started with the work of Jeremy Baker and examined the distribution of mineral wealth on H�rn. My initial effort has been to identify the areas where scarcity exists, and to quantify both excess supply and excess demand. It is still a work in progress, but I'm confident the table below accurately expresses the locations of excess supply and demand on H�rn as portrayed in the published material, with one notable exception -- the non-humans. Both Azadmere and Evael represent extremes; the Khuzdul have a tremendous surplus of mineral wealth while the Sindarin, who do not mine, import all they use. The Gargun and tribal humans are also not represented here.
To show the orders of magnitude involved, I have attempted to quantify the relative surplus or deficit with a number based on the total number of mines in operation on H�rn (but without consideration for the relative productivity of each mine). For the moment, these serve only as a very rough guide to the relative quantity of the surplus or demand. I hope someday to provide figures that represent tons of refined metals.
Mineral | Who Has Extra? | Who Needs More? |
Copper | Orbaal (+17.5) Melderyn (+8.0) Rethem (+6.4) Chybisa (+5.6) Tharda (+3.5) |
Kanday (-34.0) Kaldor (-7.0) |
Iron | Tharda (+99.4) Chybisa (+12.3) Rethem (+4.5) |
Melderyn (-74.9) Kaldor (-28.8) Orbaal (-6.3) Kanday (-6.3) |
Lead | Melderyn (+48.0) Chybisa (+5.6) Tharda (+3.5) |
Kaldor (-27.0) Kanday (-14.0) Orbaal (-12.5) Rethem (-3.6) |
Salt | Tharda (+110.3) Kaldor (+14.5) Rethem (+4.6) Chybisa (+3.3) |
Melderyn (-68.1) Orbaal (-38.7) Kanday (-26.0) |
Silver | Tharda (+18.3) Chybisa (+17.9) |
Kanday (-20.5) Kaldor (-6.6) Orbaal (-5.2) Melderyn (-3.6) Rethem (-0.2) |
Tin | Melderyn (+35.6) Rethem (+15.0) Chybisa (+5.4) Tharda (+2.0) |
Kanday (-25.5) Orbaal (-23.6) Kaldor (-8.9) |
Zinc | Melderyn (+71.6) Chybisa (+17.6) |
Kaldor (-30.4) Kanday (-23.5) Rethem (-23.2) Orbaal (-7.3) Tharda (-4.8) |
Kingdom | Copper | Iron | Lead | Salt | Silver | Tin | Zinc |
Chybisa | +5.6 | +12.3 | +5.6 | +3.3 | +17.9 | +5.4 | +17.6 |
Kaldor | -7.0 | -28.8 | -27.0 | +14.5 | -6.6 | -8.9 | -30.4 |
Kanday | -34.0 | -6.3 | -14.0 | -26.0 | -20.5 | -25.5 | -23.5 |
Melderyn | +8.0 | -74.9 | +48.0 | -68.1 | -3.6 | +35.6 | +71.6 |
Orbaal | +17.5 | -6.3 | -12.5 | -38.7 | -5.2 | -23.6 | -7.3 |
Tharda | +3.5 | +99.4 | +3.5 | +110.3 | +18.3 | +2.0 | -4.8 |
Rethem | +6.4 | +4.5 | -3.6 | +4.6 | -0.2 | +15.0 | -23.2 |
The numbers above are very imperfect. In the interest of generating some discussion and getting some other ideas about how to approach this, let's look at the technique I used to develop them. First, the underlying assumptions:
Supply and demand are balanced at current prices. I assumed the amount of minerals available on H�rn are sufficient for the needs of H�rn -- there are no minerals imported from Lythia. I also assumed all minerals produced on H�rn are used on H�rn -- there is no surplus that is stockpiled away nor are any exported to Lythia. The published material is relatively mute on this issue, but I note the economic map of Lythia does not indicate H�rn as a source of minerals for export which, in the absence of other information, seems to make these conclusions valid. (It does show Azadmere as a source for gems and finished metalwork but we are, for the moment, excluding the non-humans from this discussion) | |
All mines of a given commodity are equal. I assumed each mine produces the same amount of mineral as each of the other mines producing that mineral. This is extremely unlikely, of course, but in the absence of additional information from CGI, each GM will have to decide on individual variance. As a start point, I'm assuming they are all the same, or that their inequalities balance out in the larger view. | |
Chybisa's mines are proportional in number to those of Melderyn in the area of the Anadel Hills. In this, I relied on the careful analysis of Jeremy Baker and acted on his suggestion to give Chybisa the following mines: one copper; two iron; one lead; two silver; one tin; and two zinc. The numbers and types of these mines are subject to later modification by CGI (or us), but this is a reasonable starting point. |
Based on the above assumptions, I used the work of Jeremy Baker to count up the number of mines producing each commodity and determined their ratio to the total population of H�rn's human kingdoms. From that, I determined the number of mines of each commodity required to meet the local demands of each kingdom. Next, I compared that figure to the number of mines in operation in each kingdom and, from that, identified areas of surplus or deficit production.
Taking copper as an example, I divided the population of H�rn's kingdoms (676,130) by the total number of copper mines (30) and determined that one copper mine could satisfy the needs of about 22,538 persons. Based on that figure, Orbaal's population of 73,200 persons requires 3.2 copper mines to meet local needs. Orbaal has 5 copper mines and, therefore, has a surplus equal to the production capacity of 1.75 mines. I gave that a multiple of 10, raising it to 17.5, just to make the comparisons easier for me.
Once finished, I compared the results with the published economic map of H�rn (in H�rnWorld and the old edition of HarnView) and saw that my identified areas of surplus correlate well with those marked on the map. The only real surprise was in the number and location of kingdoms that had surpluses of salt. Since published material is fairly mute on the subject of shortages, there was no means of checking that correlation.
The largest deficiency is the absence of information on the mines of Azadmere. Until CGI publishes additional information on that topic, and on the natural resources of the other non-human races, GMs are pretty much left to their own devices.
For my part, I'm assuming Evael imports all of its minerals as suggested in the published material. I'm also assuming Azadmere imports no minerals, being at least self-sufficient in every commodity. At some future date, I hope to be able to make some informed suggestions about the types and relative quantities of minerals exported from Azadmere.
Okay, that's it. Crude and oversimplified, I'm sure, but hopefully it will engender some discussion. Have you observations to share or suggestions about how to improve this? Share them with us on the H�rnForum by clicking on this button:
Coming Soon! Similar data on other commodities!
Coming Soon! Guidelines for adjusting local wholesale and retail prices to reflect an excess of local supply or demand!