| The following is the sixth and last of a series of columns written by Paul Jackson of the Calgary Sun while he was in Taipei. This column was run on July 3, 2001. YOUNG CHINESE LONG FOR FREEDOM By Paul Jackson I can�t say I was particularly outraged to read that in recent months Communist China has allegedly executed thousands of men and women for crimes ranging from murder to drug trafficking, and from rape to embezzlement. It�s reported that in one campaign alone against drug traffickers that more than 1,000 individuals have received a bullet in the head at public executions. We in the West could use a bit of this kind of justice. But the crime wave in Communist China � a rigid dictatorship � is indicative of the growing problems in that nation. Last month in Taiwan � Free China, as many call it � I spoke with Joseph Wu, deputy director of the Institute for International Relations at National Chengchi University, and one of the most perceptive men when it comes to peering into the future regarding Taiwan and Communist China. �Mainland China has serious economic, social and political problems and I have real doubts Beijing can overcome them without substantial reform,� he said. Problems of aging dictatorship showing Despite Beijing�s iron-clad hold on the nation, the problems of any aging dictatorship are showing, mirrored by the successes of democratic nations, such as Taiwan. Outside of the showcase cities such as Shanghai, unemployment is growing, poverty is widespread and increasing, whole regions are devastated by pollution, and even though they face police brutality, everyone from jobless workers to struggling farmers to youthful students hold sporadic demonstrations. Smuggled videotape shows both the rot and the unrest. �There are now between 60-70 million workers unemployed on the mainland, and some 100 million rural workers under-employed. Some 80% of state industries are losing money, and 40% are not producing anything worthwhile but are still employing people,� said Wu. The very perceptive Wu contended unless Beijing liberalizes both the nation�s economy and the straitjacket political system in a way it may not want to, unemployment and stagnation will worsen dramatically. With that, there may be huge revolts reminiscent of Tiananmen Square. A lot will depend on what happens at the 13th Communist Party Congress next year, at which there will be jockeying for power by various factions including the party apparatchiks, the military and the economic planners. �On one hand, Beijing knows if it can feed its 1.2 billion people it can probably keep them quiet, but can it feed them? On the other hand, Beijing�s thrust may be to stir up nationalism to hold the regime together.� The nationalist gambit was played when the Chinese military downed a U.S. surveillance plane three months ago and then whipped up an anti-American frenzy, and Taiwan itself is always an easy target to play the nationalist card against. However, fist-shaking against Taiwan may have lost some of its impact now, because ever since then, President George W. Bush has sworn that the U.S. is prepared to stand by the small democratic nation and help defend it if necessary. Plus, any overt action against Taiwan would likely result in world-wide trade sanctions that would cripple the nation�s economy and spur further chaos. Now, even though it has been the Communist regime�s aim to forcibly integrate Taiwan ever since it enslaved mainland China in 1949, time may well be working against it. Island nation invests billions in China Wu explains while Beijing publicly bullies Taiwan, the island nation has invested tens of billions of dollars into new industries on the mainland. Visits by Taiwanese residents to see their relatives on the mainland are increasing rapidly. So are cultural exchanges. All these demonstrate to younger mainland Chinese a far different picture than their doctrinaire authorities paint. Wu notes some 40,000 mainland Chinese students are now studying at universities in the U.S., and many more in other countries throughout the world. These students, having tasted freedom of speech and free markets, will bring back new ideas to their country. �Many young people on the mainland already know just how dynamic and prosperous Taiwan is,� says Wu, �and they have no hostility towards Taiwan.� My own assessment is, while Beijing wants to enforce its failing system on Taiwan, history may work the other way around. It may be Taiwan�s democracy and economic vitality that is freely embraced by the mainland. Back to the home page. |