23May2000

Special Update: Tuesday, May 23, 3:00 PM. This update was sent a day early to maintain the relevance of the news regarding the upcoming House vote on PNTR (see below). A special mini-update will be sent dealing solely with PNTR when the vote is taken, likely on Wednesday.

CHINA E-LOBBY UPDATE

CHEN SHUI-BIAN INAUGURATED IN HISTORIC TRANSITION ON TAIWAN; COMMUNIST CHINA BLOWS HOT AND COLD; EXILED DISSIDENTS ATTEND, CALL TAIWAN AN INSPIRATION
Chen Shui-bian took the oath of office as President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), in the first peaceful transfer of power from one party to another in the history of Chinese culture. President Chen focused on domestic themes for most of his inaugural address, including a call to end corruption in politics.

Outside the ROC, however, all that was remembered was Chen�s statements on reunification with the Communist-controlled mainland. Chen repeated a pledge never to hold an independence referendum unless the Communists attacked the island democracy. He also pledged not to change the nation�s name (i.e., no �Republic of Taiwan�), and said he would keep the Reunification guidelines established by his predecessor, Lee Teng-hui, in 1991. He also head he expected Beijing and Taipei to have �enough wisdom and creativity to jointly deal with the question of a future �One China.��

Beijing responded with more threats of �serious consequences� if Chen continued to avoid accepting �One China.� The Communist called Chen�s statements, such as the above quote, �vague� and �insincere.� On Sunday, Communist leader Jiang Zemin held a meeting of the powerful Central Military Commission, which he chairs. While the apparent goal of the meeting was to �strengthen a series of important directives in the military academies and concentrate research on establishing and strengthening political ideology,� it�s probable the ROC also came up in the discussion. Chen�s response to Beijing may have achieved the Communists� criteria for clarity, but it doubtlessly did little to make them happy. Chen said of Communist China, �They would only be satisfied if Taiwan were returned to them like Hong Kong and Macau. And even so, they still might not be satisfied.�

Communist China did shift their position on cross-strait talks. Perhaps in light of the upcoming PNTR vote (see below), Xinhua, the Communist�s news agency, said cross-strait talks could be held under the �One China, several interpretations� framework agreed to in the early 1990�s. That agreement, which Beijing had rejected as a basis for talks before Chen�s inauguration, declared that while there is �One China,� Beijing and Taipei could hold different views on what it means. An anonymous government official briefing mainland reporters on Tuesday even acknowledged that previous Communist demands that Taipei recognize �One China� with Beijing as the sole legitimate government �would not be acceptable to the Taiwanese authorities.� He also mentioned �One China, several interpretations� � though not by name � as a possible framework for talks. Chen has previously stated such a basis for talks, which ended four decades of an official freeze in cross-strait relations in 1993, could be acceptable to him.

Exiled dissidents Wei Jingshing and Wang Dan, on hand for the inauguration at the invitation of Chen�s Democratic Progressive Party, said they were �inspired� by Taiwan�s democracy. Wei warned Taiwan to believe Beijing�s threats. In a penal discussion on the day of the inauguration, Wei likened the Communists to a �wolf� whose future vision of Taiwan is �the sheep in its stomach.� He also said Chen�s ascendancy was �encouraging� to mainland dissidents. Wang recommended Taiwan repeatedly refer to democracy and human rights in future negotiations with Beijing. �What impressed me the most in Chen Shui-bian's inaugural speech was he talked about the values of freedom, democracy and human rights a great deal,� said Wang.

PNTR VOTE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Permanent Normal Trade Relations for Communist China will be coming to a vote in the House of Representatives sometime on Wednesday or Thursday. This led to a number of major events occurred over the past week, which are covered in the following section. PNTR is part of the trade deal the People�s Republic of China signed with the U.S. to gain entry into the World Trade Organization

In a move that was not really surprising, the House Ways and Mans Committee and the Senate Finance Committee both approved PNTR for Communist China Wednesday. The votes were 34-4 and 18-1 respectively. The following day, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan announced his support for the trade deal. President Clinton spent the week using every argument he could find to gin up support for the deal. As of Tuesday afternoon, neither side was sure who would get the �magic number� of 218 votes.

At a press conference on last Wednesday, a number of veterans groups joined the opposition to PNTR: the American Legion, AMVETS, and the Naval Reserve Association. As the vote nears, the opposition forces have put each group to their own strengths. The Washington Times reported that labor unions and human rights groups have focused on lobbying undecided Democrats, while the veterans groups are taking the national security argument to wavering Republicans.

The Administration has largely responded by doling out favors to undecided lawmakers. Everything from campaign visits (Ohio), to oil projects (Texas), to money for unemployment centers (Minnesota), to ensuring business loans in their districts (Texas again), are being thrown around to shore up support. This reveals how deceptive the lopsided votes of the committees were. The Republicans are hoping to get 150 members, while the Democrats are aiming for 70 on their side of the aisle. Since the House�s two Independents � Virgil Goode of Virginia and Bernie Sanders of Vermont � have each pledged to oppose PNTR, supporters of the Communist Chinese trade deal, under their best scenario, have three votes to spare.

EUROPEAN UNION CAVES IN NEGOTIATIONS, SIGNS TRADE DEAL WITH COMMUNIST CHINA
In Beijing, EU and PRC signed a trade deal that removed the last major obstacle to WTO membership for Communist China. The EU completely caved on the issue of majority ownership for foreigners in mainland firms. The Communist Chinese thus ensured �domestic owners� � only the government is legally able to won anything � would maintain veto power over all corporate decisions. Many in Washington hope that the deal will increase pressure on undecided House members to support PNTR for Communist China. However, the EU did not win any concessions the U.S. did not already have in their deal with the PRC. Under WTO rules, concessions an applicant makes to one member as part of a negotiated agreement must be extended to all members. Communist China still has negotiations with five smaller member nations to settle.

CHRISTIAN CHURCH LEADERS ARRESTED IN GUANGDONG, SICHUAN PROVINCE
Communist officials in southeastern Guangdong province are continuing their crackdown on independent Christian churches, arresting 10 church leaders, according to Christian Solidarity Worldwide. This included Li Dexian, whose arrest was reported in last week�s update. While Li has been released, he reamins under tight surveillance, and his house where he held service has been destroyed. Guangdong Communist officials haven�t confirmed the specific arrests, but one confirmed an investigation was underway. While he would not give his name, he did assert that the churches would �be punished according to the relevant regulation.� The state-controlled Guangming Daily referred to the communities of faith as �foreign and domestic enemies� engaged in �pervasive infiltration and separatist activities.�

In Sichuan province, Li Xueqing, leader of the 500,000 strong �Disciples� Christian group, will be interred at a labor camp for one year, according to a police source. A deputy director of the Public Security Bureau in Yanting County who revealed himself only as Chen told Agence France Presse that Li�s sentence, which was imposed without trial, was for leading an �illegal cult to deceive local people.� Communist China has branded several independent faith organizations as �cults,� from a myriad of Christian groups to the Falun Gong spiritual movement. The Disciples compounded this with the audacity to oppose Communist China�s infamous and brutal �one child� birth control policies. Twenty other members of the faith have been areested in the past two months, according to the Information Center on Human rights and Democracy.

FALUN GONG LEADER DIES IN COMMUNIST CHINESE PRISON
Zhou Zhichang, leader of the Falun Gong spiritual movement in Shuangcheng City, died on May 15 in prison, where he had been held for seven months. Zhou, who was on a hunger strike eight days long when he died, was arrested in Beijing in October and return to Shaungcheng for imprisonment. The local Communist police said he died of heart disease. However, the Information Center on Human Rights and Democracy reported no one in Zhou�s family had any knowledge of him suffering heart disease. Falun Gong has suffered a brutal crackdown at the hands of the Communists for over a year. Chinese Communists consider Falun Gong the greatest threat to their regime since the 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square.

RUSSIA DELIVERS ANTI-SHIP SUPERSONIC CRUISE MISSILES TO COMMUNIST CHINA
Russia has delivered the first shipment of SSN-22 anti-ship cruise missiles to Communist China, dramatically changing the local military balance of power. Anonymous Pentagon officials confirmed to the Washington Times on Thursday the Russian shipment of the SSN-22s, and said Russia would likely deliver more later this year. The cruise missiles, with supersonic speed, are to be deployed on two Sovremenny-class submarines Russia sold to Communist China last year and delivered early this year. The officials said the 24 missiles had been shipped from the Russian Pacific port of Vladivostock over the past several weeks. The Pentagon apparently was informed of the shipments on Thursday, although Russian news sources had reported them earlier in the week. One official said the missile-armed Sovremenny �really did change the capability of the surface force.� Nearly all analysts say the recent buildup in Communist China is preparation for a future invasion of Taiwan, whose request for high-tech weaponry was denied by President Clinton last month.

LIAOYANG PROTESTORS WIN PLEDGE FOR FULL PAYMENT OF BACK WAGES
Protestors in Liaoyang province, who numbered in the thousands to demand payment of back wages, won their showdown with the state-owned Liaoyang Ferroalloy Factory. A factory official, while not giving his name, said the factory agreed to pay all owed back wages by the end of October. The official also said the local police would not make any more arrests. A city official simply said, �order has returned to the streets,� and would not comment on the pay or arrest issues. Three leaders of the protests arrested earlier in the week were released. As mentioned in our last update, the Liaoyang factory has not paid regular wages to its workers in over a year. Protests over state-owned factories going bankrupt or falling behind in wage payments are so widespread that Agence France Presse reported Communist President Jiang Zemin has told police that maintaining �social order� was more important than fighting crime. Local police throughout the mainland have responded by crushing demonstrations and cracking down on independent labor movements.

MEMO REVEALS FBI DIRECTOR WANTED RENO OFF CAMPAIGN FINANCE PROBE IN 1996
AP reported on Friday that a belatedly released memo from December 9, 1996 revealed evidence that FBI Director Louis Freeh felt �political pressure� had compromised Janet Reno�s top prosecutor investigating campaign-finance irregularities in the 1996 election. In the memo to Deputy Director William Esposito, Freeh said he had �advised the attorney general of Lee Radek�s comment to you that there was a lot of �pressure� on him� about the case. Radek, who was and is head of the Justice Department�s Public Integrity Section, apparently told Esposito the pressure arose �because the attorney general�s job might hang in the balance (or words to that effect).� Freeh wrote that he had asked Reno, and that basis, to recuse herself and Radek from the investigation. Freeh also wrote a memo to his general counsel expressing concern about the investigation relying on Commerce Department investigators and not the FBI.

Radek denied saying what was attributed to him in Freeh�s memo, parts of which revealed to AP by anonymous government officials. The investigation found overwhelming evidence of attempts by Communist China to influence the election of 1996, particularly on the Democratic side, by laundering funds into the U.S. for campaign contributions. It has grown to dramatically reshape the debate on everything from national security and foreign policy to reform and enforcement of campaign finance laws.

TIBET NEWS
The Dalai Lama met with Denmark Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen in Copenhagen on Sunday. The meeting had occurred despite numerous invectives from Communist China. Denmark has repeatedly criticized the treatment of Tibetans in Communist China, much to the Communists� chagrin. Over 1.2 million Tibetans have died since an anticommunist uprising in Tibet was brutally crushed in 1959. After the meeting, the Dalai Lama gave President Bill Clinton a boost by saying Communist China joining the WTO would be �one way (for the PRC) to change in the right direction.� He later said that if Communist China enters the WTO, the West has a �moral responsibility� to advance the cause of freedom and democracy in Communist China. Tibetan�s spiritual leader will meet with Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg later today. No reports of what happened during the meeting were available as of this afternoon.

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