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CHINA E-LOBBY UPDATE: JULY 16, 2003
RALLY FOR FALUN GONG: For those of you in the Washington, D.C. area, or anyone else who�d like to make the trip, Friends of Falun Gong is holding a rally in support of the spiritual movement on Tuesday, July 22 on the Lower West Terrace Lawn of the U.S. Capitol. Yours truly is scheduled to make a few remarks. More detailed information on the day�s events can be found here.
TOP STORY: JAPAN AND COMMUNIST CHINA VYING FOR RUSSIAN OIL
COMMUNIST CHINESE DEAL FOR SIBERIAN OIL NOT IN STONE, CHALLENGED BY JAPAN
The two leading powers in Asia � Japan and the so-called People�s Republic of China � are battling for a major economic prize: access to Russia's vast Siberian oil reserves. The battle for the oil has pitted numerous Russian interests and objectives against each other in what could be a major geopolitical move. Report: Washington Post 7-12, Parapundit
Communist China may have thought they won the argument with last May�s communiqu� on the oil (see 5/28 Update), but Russia started backing away from it. Meanwhile, Japan is also �playing on Russia's historical fears of China,� particularly the problem of the Sinicization of the Russian Far East (see 10/25/02 Week�s Links).
The oil industry in Russia is split, with the state-owned Rosneft and Trasneft firms backing Japan, and the private Yukos firm backing the Communist China route. Yukos is currently in Putin�s crosshairs for supporting opposition parties in the Russian Parliament, (Post 7-9).
So who�s the favorite? According to the Post, the Communists are. However, according to Gateway to Russia, the �War for Eastern Siberia� is tilting in Rosneft�s favor, which would mean Japan would be in the driver�s seat, despite the fact Rosneft�s rise has more to do with the Kremlin�s anger at Yukos and its plans to let foreign firms buy into it.
From the economic side, the PRC pipeline is cheaper, but the Japan line could also be used to export to the U.S. Russia is still the PRC�s biggest arms supplier, but the power grab by the Kremlin could outweigh that fact and, in the process, reshape the Asian balance of power. A decision is expected this fall. Stay tuned; this could get very interesting.
THE �HONG KONG REBELLION�
20,000 IN HK CALL FOR TUNG�S RESIGNATION; TWO MINISTERS QUIT
Hong Kong residents took to the streets for the third time in two weeks (see 7/2 and 7/9 Updates), this time to call for the resignation of PRC-appointed Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa and the direct election of his successor (Cybercast News). Tung is not going anywhere, but Security Minister Regina Ip and Finance Minister Anthony Leung did step down (BBC).
COMMUNISTS TO PUSH ONE COUNTRY IN HONG KONG, NOT TWO SYSTEMS
Meanwhile, the Communists were mapping out there strategy for dealing with the newfound strength of the pro-democracy forces. Of course, it does not include the will of the people, who are demanding that Tung�s successor be elected (Willy Wo-Lap Lam, CNN).
For the most part, the Communist leadership � in particular PRC President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao � are hoping an economic recovery and a long-term postponement of the �anti-subversion� bill (see 7/2 and 7/9 Updates) will �cool down HK's democratic forces.� However, more hard-line Communists are not happy with the �Hong Kong Rebellion.�
One member of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee went so far as to say �If they [the SAR's pro-democracy forces] are playing up the two systems, we shall put emphasis on one country.� Uh oh.
COMMUNIST CHINA WORRIED ABOUT SPREAD OF ACTIVISM FROM HK, EFFECT ON TAIWAN
Communist China is deeply worried that the Hong Kong �people power� (Washington Post) could spread to the rest of the PRC. So what�s preventing a major crackdown? Taiwan is watching, and as Republic of China (Taiwan) News also reveals, the island democracy has become much more skeptical about any promise coming from Communist China.
COMMUNISTS SET �QUALIFICATIONS� FOR NEXT LEADER OF CITY
Meanwhile, the PRC put together its �qualifications� for the next leader of Hong Kong � not that Tung is going anywhere, as the PRC has �no intention of either replacing Tung before 2007 or allowing universal-suffrage polls to determine his successor� (Willy Wo-Lap Lam, CNN). Tops on the list: loyalty to the Communists, and �economic collateral�.
What is economic collateral? According to Lam, it is �the fact that the candidate or his clan must have substantial holdings and investments in Hong Kong or the mainland so that he will feel beholden to Beijing for the long-term well-being of his family.�
�ANTI-SUBVERSION� LAW MAY BE DEAD
Meanwhile, Hong Kong Councillor Tsang Yok-sing told a local radio program that he had no idea when � or even if � the �anti-subversion� law will come before the city legislature (CNN). Tsang is the leader of the main pro-Communist party in HK, so his words could be a sign that the law is in real trouble (see 7/2 and 7/9 Updates).
OTHER HUMAN RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS NEWS
JIANLI YANG IS ALIVE, �IN GOOD HEALTH�
Jianli Yang (Yang is his surname), a Tiananmen Square protestor arrested in the PRC for returning from exile to work with labor protestors in the Communist northeast (see 5/1/02 Update), is alive and �in good health,� according to his wife, Christina Fu. Fu wrote of Jianli�s plight in jail to Jay Nordlinger of National Review Online (fifth item).
Check out the Communist China and the Terrorist War page.
NORTH KOREA NEWS
WHITE HOUSE MAY OPEN DOOR TO NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES
The White House is �considering admitting thousands of North Korean refugees into the United States� (Washington Post) in the hope that the flow of refugees into the U.S. would �increase pressure on the government in Pyongyang during the standoff over its nuclear weapons programs.� Of course, it could also save thousands of lives.
As the Post reported, as much as 300,000 refugees are hiding in Communist China, which sends back any refugee it finds. The internal discussion within the Administration is focused on how many refugees should be let in, with some pushing for the 300,000 figure, but others �believe such a step would hurt relations with China�. Ugh!
COMMUNIST CHINA TALKING TO NORTH KOREA, U.S.
The PRC held �in-depth� (CNN 7/15) talks with North Korea � its fifty-plus-year ally � regarding the latter�s nuclear ambitions. According to a Communist spokesman, the PRC is hoping to �resume the Beijing dialogue at an early date� (BBC). That would be the �dialogue� that ended with a Stalinist boast to nuclear weapons (see 4/30 Update).
Meanwhile, Communist China also had talks with the U.S. and �agreed to join forces to find a diplomatic solution� (CNN 7/16). Since �diplomatic solution� in Communist-speak means giving the North everything they want, this is not good news. The Communists also �reiterated its opposition to attempts to put pressure on North Korea� (Cybercast News).
YANG BIN GETS 18 YEARS IN JAIL
Another of Communist China�s �private� businessmen went down to corruption charges last week. In this case, it was Yang Bin, the fellow who had been slated to run North Korea�s free-trade zone in Sinuiju (see 10/9/02 Update). Now, neither he nor the zone will see the light of day for quite some time. Reports: BBC, Washington Post
For more on Communist China�s Stalinist ally, sign up for Monday�s North Korea Report.
AMERICAN-RELATED NEWS
HOUSE TAKES UNFPA FUNDING OUT OF BUDGET
The House of Representatives nixed funding for the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) (Washington Post, Newsmax). President Bush stopped UNFPA funding last year, due to its operations in Communist China, home of the hideous �one child� policy that has led to forced abortions, forced sterilizations, and infanticide (see 8/30/00 and 7/24/02 Updates).
THREE U.S. MOVIE FIRMS SUE PRC FIRMS FOR PIRACY
Fox Entertainment, Disney, and Universal Studios are suing three PRC firms (unnamed by the BBC) for piracy. The Communist firms pirated at least three films � one from each firm. Piracy is a major scourge in the PRC, costing foreign firms of all stripes millions of dollars.
OTHER MAINLAND NEWS
THREE GORGES DAM OPERTAIONAL
After massive corruption, ecological disasters, and several cracks (see 9/20/00, 12/5/01, and 6/18 Updates), the Three Gorges Dam � brainchild of Tiananmen Square butcher Li Peng � is now �generating electricity� (BBC). The dam is typical of a slew of ecologically damaging public works that would never have been considered in a free market.
REPUBLIC OF CHINA (TAIWAN) NEWS
HONG KONG�S TRAVAILS CONTINUE TO SWELL ANTI-REUNIFICATION IN TAIWAN
Taiwan has heard Communist China�s promises of �one country, two systems� for years. Hong Kong�s recent travails (see Human Rights and Freedoms News, 7/2 and 7/9 Updates) are convincing many in the island democracy that the Communists simply �can't be trusted with the �one country, two systems� model� (BBC).
TAIWAN�S FIRST LADY TO VIST GERMANY AND THE VATICAN; VP COMING TO U.S.
Wu Shu-chen, Taiwan�s First Lady, will visit Germany later this month for an art exhibit opening, then spend four days in Vatican City. Meanwhile, Vice President Annette Lu, a fiery defender of the island democracy�s interests, is coming to the U.S. next month with stopovers on her way to Latin America. Report: Washington Times, third paragraph
No news was reported from Tibet this week.
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