THE
FAQ'S ON THE EVOLUTION OF DVD
| Q |
What is DVD? |
| A |
It's important
to understand the difference between the physical formats (such as DVD-ROM
or DVD-R) and the application formats (such as DVD-Video or DVD-Audio).
DVD-ROM is the base format that holds data. DVD-Video (often simply called
DVD) defines how video programs such as movies are stored on disc and played
in a DVD-Video player or a DVD computer. The difference is similar to that
between CD-ROM and Audio CD. DVD-ROM includes recordable variations DVD-R/RW,
DVD-RAM, and DVD+R/RW. The application formats include DVD-Video, DVD-Video
Recording, DVD-Audio, DVD-Audio Recording, DVD Stream Recording |
| Q |
How is DVD doing?
Where can I get statistics? |
| A |
DVD did not take
off quite as fast as some early predictions, but it has sold faster than
videotape, CD, and laserdisc. In fact, before its third birthday in March
2000, DVD had become the most successful consumer electronics entertainment
product ever.
Here are some predictions:
-
InfoTech (1995): Worldwide
sales of DVD players in 1997 will be 800,000. Worldwide sales of DVD-ROM
drives in 1997 will be 1.2 million, with sales of 39 million drives in
2000.
-
Toshiba (1996): 100,000
to 150,000 DVD-Video players will be sold in Japan between Nov. 1 and Dec.
31, 1996, and 750,000-1 million by Nov. 1, 1997. (Actual count of combined
shipments by Matsushita, Pioneer, and Toshiba was 70,000 in Oct-Dec 1996.)
Total worldwide DVD hardware market expected to reach 120 million units
in the year 2000. Worldwide settop DVD player market will be 2 million
units in the first year, with sales of 20 million in the year 2000.
-
Pioneer (1996): 400,000
DVD-Video players in 1996, 11 million by 2000. 100,000 DVD-Audio players
in 1996, 4 million by 2000.
-
InfoTech (1996): 820,000
DVD-Video players in first year, 80 million by 2005.
-
CEMA (1997): 400,000
DVD-Video players in U.S. in 1997, 1 million in 1998.
-
Time-Warner (1996):
10 million DVD players in the U.S. by 2002.
-
Paul Kagan (1997):
800,000 DVD players in the U.S. in 1997, 10 million in 2000, and 40 million
in 2006 (43% penetration). 5.6 million discs sold in 1997, 172 million
discs in 2000, and 623 million in 2006.
-
C-Cube (1996): 1 million
players and drives in 1997.
-
BASES: 3 million DVD-Video
players sold in first year, 13 million sold in 6th year.
-
Dataquest (1997): over
33 million shipments of DVD players and drives by 2000.
-
Philips (1996): 25
million DVD-ROM drives worldwide by 2000 (10% of projected 250 million
optical drives).
-
Pioneer (1996): 500,000
DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 54 million sold in 2000.
-
Toshiba (1996): 120
million DVD-ROM drives in 2000 (80% penetration of 100 million PCs). Toshiba
says they will no longer make CD-ROM drives in 2000.
-
IDC (1997): 10 million
DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 70 million sold in 2000 (surpassing CD-ROM),
118 million sold in 2001. Over 13% of all software available on DVD-ROM
in 1998. DVD recordable drives more than 90% of combined CD/DVD recordable
market in 2001.
-
AMI (1997): installed
base of 7 million DVD-ROM drives by 2000.
-
Intel (1997): 70 million
DVD-ROM drives by 1999 (sales will surpass CD-ROM drives in 1998).
-
SMD (1997): 100 million
DVD-ROM/RAM drives shipped in 2000.
-
Microsoft (Peter Biddle,
1997): 15 million DVD PCs sold in 1998, 50 million DVD PCs sold in 1999.
-
Microsoft (Jim Taylor,
1998): installed base of 35 million DVD PCs in 1999.
-
Forrester Research
(1997): U.S. base of 53 million DVD-equipped PCs by 2002. 5.2% of U.S.
households (5 million) will have a DVD-V player in 2002; 2% will have a
DVD-Audio player.
-
Yankee Group (Jan 1998):
650,000 DVD-Video players by 1998, 3.6 million by 2001. 19 million DVD-PCs
by 2001.
-
InfoTech (Jan 1998):
20 million DVD-Video players worldwide in 2002, 58 million by 2005. 99
million DVD-ROM drives worldwide in 2005. No more than 500 DVD-ROM titles
available by the end of 1998. About 80,000 DVD-ROM titles available by
2005.
-
Screen Digest (Dec
1998): 125,000 DVD-Video player in European homes in 1998, 485,000 in 1999,
1 million in 2000.
-
IRMA (Apr 2000): 12
million players will ship worldwide in 2000.
-
Baskerville (Apr 2000):
Worldwide spending on DVD software will surpass that of VHS by 2003. There
will be a worldwide installed based of 625 million DVD players by 2010
(55% of TV households).
-
Jon Peddie (Jun 2000):
Almost 20 million DVD players will be sold in the U.S. in 2004.
-
IDC (July 2000): 70
million DVD players and drives will be sold by year's end.
-
Screen Digest (June
2000): European installed base of DVD-Video players (1998) 0.3m; (1999)
1.5m; (2000) 5.4m; (2003) 47.1m.
-
Japanese Electronics
and Information Technologies Association (December 2000): 37 million DVD
players worldwide by 2001.
-
DVD Entertainment Group
(July 2001): Approximately 30 million DVD players sold in the U.S. by the
end of 2001.
Here's reality:
1997
349,000 DVD-Video
players shipped in the U.S. (About 200,000 sold into homes.)
900 DVD-Video titles
available in the U.S. Over 5 million copies shipped; about 2 million sold.
Over 500,000 DVD-Video
players shipped worldwide.
Around 330,000
DVD-ROM drives shipped worldwide with about 1 million bundled DVD-ROM titles.
60 DVD-ROM titles
(mostly bundled).
1998
1,089,000
DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 1,438,000.)
400 DVD-Video titles
in Europe (135 movie and music titles).
3,000 DVD-Video
titles in the U.S. (2000 movie and music titles).
7.2 million DVD-Video
discs purchased.
1999
4,019,000
DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 5,457,000.)
Over 6,300 DVD-Video
titles in the U.S.
About 26 million
DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
About 75 DVD-ROM
titles available in the U.S.
2000
8.5 million
DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 13,922,000.)
About 46 million
DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
Over 10,000 DVD-Video
titles available in the U.S.
Belgium: 100 thousand
installed base
France: 1.2 million
installed base
Germany: 1.2 million
installed base
Italy: 360 thousand
installed base
Netherlands: 200
thousand installed base
Spain: 300 thousand
installed base
Sweden: 120 thousand
installed base
Switzerland: 250
thousand installed base
UK: 1 million installed
base
|
|
For comparison,
there were about 700 million audio CD players and 160 million CD-ROM drives
worldwide in 1997. 1.2 billion CD-ROMs were shipped worldwide in 1997 from
a base of about 46,000 different titles. There were about 80 million VCRs
in the U.S. (89% of households) and about 400 million worldwide. 110,000
VCRs shipped in the first two years after release. Nearly 16 million VCRs
were shipped in 1998. In 2000 there were about 270 million TVs in the U.S.
and 1.3 billion worldwide.When DVD came out in 1997 there were about 3
million laserdisc players in the U.S. |
|
For latest U.S.
player sales statistics, see the CEA
page at The Digital Bits. Other DVD statistics and forecasts can be
found at IRMA,
MediaLine,
Twice.
Industry analyses and forecasts can be purchased from Adams
Media Research, British
Video Association, Cahners
In-stat, Centris,
Datamonitor,
Dataquest,
DVD
Intelligence,
eBrain,
International
Data Corporation (IDC), InfoTech,
Jon
Peddie Associates (JPA),
Paul
Kagan Associates,
Screen
Digest,
SIMBA Information,
Strategy
Analytics,
Understanding
& Solutions and others. |
| Q |
What about DVD-Audio
or Music DVD? |
| A |
When DVD was released
in 1996 there was no DVD-Audio format, although the audio capabilities
of DVD-Video far surpassed CD. The DVD Forum sought additional input from
the music industry before defining the DVD-Audio format. A draft standard
was released by the DVD Forum's Working Group 4 (WG4) in January 1998,
and version 0.9 was released in July. The final DVD-Audio 1.0 specification
(minus copy protection) was approved in February 1999 and released in March,
but products were delayed in part by the slow process of selecting copy
protection features (encryption and watermarking), with complications introduced
by the Secure Digital Music Initiative (SDMI). The scheduled October 1999
release was further delayed until mid 2000, ostensibly because of concerns
caused by the CSS crack, but also because the hardware wasn't quite ready,
production tools weren't up to snuff, and there was lackluster support
from music labels. Pioneer released some early models of DVD-Audio players
in Japan in late 1999, but they don't play copy protected discs.
Matsushita released
Panasonic and Technics brand universal DVD-Audio/DVD-Video players available
in July 2000 for $700 to $1,200. Pioneer, JVC, Yamaha, and others released
DVD-Audio players in fall 2000 and early 2001. By the end of 2000 there
were about 50 DVD-Audio titles available. By the end of 2001 there were
just under 200 DVD-Audio titles available.
DVD-Audio is a separate
format from DVD-Video. DVD-Audio discs can be designed to work in DVD-Video
players, but it's possible to make a DVD-Audio disc that won't play at
all in a DVD-Video player, since the DVD-Audio specification includes new
formats and features, with content stored in a separate "DVD-Audio zone"
on the disc (the AUDIO_TS directory) that DVD-Video players never look
at. New DVD-Audio players are needed, or new "universal players" that can
play both DVD-Video and DVD-Audio discs. Universal players are also called
VCAPs (video capable audio players).
Plea to producers:
Universal players won't be available for some time, but you can make universal
discs today. With a small amount of effort, all DVD-Audio discs can be
made to work on all DVD players by including a Dolby Digital version of
the audio in the DVD-Video zone.
Plea to DVD-Audio
authoring system developers: Make your software do this by default or strongly
recommend this option during authoring.
DVD-Audio players
(and universal players) work with existing receivers. They output PCM and
Dolby Digital, and some will support the optional DTS and DSD formats.
However, most current receivers can't decode high definition, multichannel
PCM audio, and even if they could it can't be carried on standard digital
audio connections. DVD-Audio players with high-end digital-to-analog converters
(DACs) can only be hooked up to receivers with channel or channel analog
inputs, but some quality is lost if the receiver converts back to digital
for processing. Future receivers with improved digital connections such
as IEEE 1394 (FireWire) will be needed to use the full digital resolution
of DVD-Audio.
DVD audio is copyright
protected by an embedded signaling or digital watermark feature. This uses
signal processing technology to apply a digital signature and optional
encryption keys to the audio in the form of supposedly inaudible noise
so that new equipment will recognize copied audio and refuse to play it.
Proposals from Aris, Blue Spike, Cognicity, IBM, and Solana were evaluated
by major music companies in conjunction with the 4C Entity, comprising
IBM, Intel, Matsushita, and Toshiba. Aris and Solana merged to form a new
company called Verance, whose Galaxy technology was chosen for DVD-Audio
in August 1999. (In November 1999, Verance watermarking was also selected
for SDMI.) Verance and 4C claimed that tests on the Verance watermarking
method showed it was inaudible, but golden-eared listeners in later tests
were able to detect the watermarking noise.
Sony and Philips
have developed a competing Super Audio CD format that uses DVD discs. Sony
released version 0.9 of the SACD spec in April 1998, the final version
appeared in April (?) 1999. SACD technology is available to existing Sony/Philips
CD licensees at no additional cost. Most initial SACD releases have been
mixed in stereo, not multichannel. SACD was originally supposed to provide
"legacy" discs with two layers, one that plays in existing CD players,
plus a high density layer for DVD-Audio players, but technical difficulties
kept dual format discs from being produced until the end of 2000, and only
then in small quantities. Pioneer, which released the first DVD-Audio players
in Japan at the end of 1999, included SACD support in their DVD-Audio players.
If other manufacturers follow suit, the entire SACD vs. DVD-Audio standards
debate could be moot, since DVD-Audio players would play both types of
discs.
Sony released an
SACD player in Japan in May 1999 at the tear inducing price of $5,000.
The player was released in limited quantities in the U.S. at the end of
1999. Philips released a $7,500 player in May 2000. Sony shipped a $750
SACD player in Japan in mid 2000. About 40 SACD titles were available at
the end of 1999, from studios such as DMP, Mobile Fidelity Labs, Pioneer,
Sony, and Telarc. Over 500 SACD titles were available by the end of 2001.
A drawback related
to DVD-Audio and SACD players is that most audio receivers with 6 channels
of analog input aren't able to do bass management. Receivers with Dolby
Digital and DTS decoders handle bass management internally, but most receivers
with channel audio inputs simply pass them through to the amplifier. Until
new audio systems with full bass management from channel inputs are developed,
any setup that doesn't have full range speakers for all 5 surround channels
will not properly reproduce all the bass frequencies. In the interim, you
may be able to use an outboard bass management box, such as from Outlaw
Audio.
If you are interested
in making the most of a DVD-Audio or SACD player, you need a receiver with
channel analog audio inputs. You also need 5 full frequency speakers (that
is, each speaker should be able to handle sub woofer frequencies) and a
sub woofer, unless you have a receiver that can perform bass management
on the analog inputs.
For more on DVD-Audio,
including lists of titles and player models, visit Digital
Audio Guide. |
DVD
FAQ Source |