In 1958 Democracy was restored after ten years of Military rule. In 1961 a new Constitution was enacted. Nine Presidents (5 from AD; 2 from COPEI; 1 from CONVERGENCIA; and 1 from MVR) were elected in accordance with its rules which means that it provided sufficient grounds for a peaceful and democratic alternance of power.

Mr. Chávez¹s Political Agenda ­his euphemistic approach to revolution­ was based on the promise to eradicate corruption and privileges. For such a purpose there was no need to draft and to enact a new Constitution; in the end it became part of the populist approach given by Mr. Chávez to his Presidency. The new Constitution doesn¹t contribute to a stronger Democracy. To the contrary, it provides preeminence to the Presidency of the Republic in detriment of other National Powers and the State and Local Governments. Probably this was ­along with the extension of the presidential term-period from 5 to 6 years with immediate reelection­ the sole purpose of the constitutional change. There is no doubt that Mr. Chávez wants to remain in power for decades.

Nobody has questioned the legitimacy of Mr. Chávez¹s election as President of Venezuela; he is the only one who constantly points out such a fact, probably because he never thought he was going to become President through democratic elections. The fall of his legitimacy began right after he took Office and is the consequence of his sometimes illegal, unconstitutional, extravagant and immoderate use of political power.

CONSTITUTIONAL CHOICES

Venezuela is a Democratic State that promotes as superior values ­among others­ liberty, justice, equality, solidarity and the preeminence of Human Rights, ethics and political pluralism (Article 2 of the Constitution). President Chávez doesn¹t have the right to impose on all Venezuelans his non-democratic and extreme-leftist oriented political project.

Venezuelan citizens have the Constitutional Right to publicly demonstrate and protest against Government Acts. Demonstrations must be peacefully conducted, without weapons and in compliance with legal requirements (Article 68). Millions of people have chosen to peacefully demonstrate ­with flags and whistles­ against the Government of Mr. Chávez. In fact, the General Strike became a protest against corruption, Human Rights violations, death in the streets of Caracas and other major capitals, attacks on the Media, attacks on farmers and entrepreneurs, impunity and the Governments vicious and unconstitutional behavior.

The use of firearms and toxic substances is forbidden for the control of peaceful demonstrations (Article 68). The Government of Mr. Chávez has been constantly calling the Army and the National Guard to control peaceful demonstrations in Caracas and other major capitals . They have been using weapons to intimidate and control demonstrators. Some demonstrators have been seriously wounded ­some have been killed­. Several violations to Human Rights have been reported; such violations contravene the Constitution (Title III, Chapter I of the Constitution).

Article 350 of the Constitution states that the People of Venezuela may reject (abjure) any regime, legislation or authority that contravenes the democratic values, principles and guaranties [granted] or impairs Human Rights. Based upon this Article, millions of Venezuelans made the Constitutional Choice to challenge, demonstrate and protest against President Chávez¹s ­now illegitimate­ Government. The choice has been channeled and constrained by a national strike, by daily demonstrations ­marches and public gatherings­ of the civil society, by the call to Referendum and the call to early Elections.

The Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruled today that Article 350 doesn¹t support the call to Civil Disobedience. The call has been made by the Military gathered in Altamira Square and by certain Opposition groups. The ruling is being questioned by reputable Lawyers.

RECENT TRENDS

On January 17, a National Guard General ­following instructions from President Chávez­ raided the installations of the COCA-COLA bottling company ( soft drink producer) as well as those of POLAR, a beer and soft drink (PEPSI-COLA) brands producer. Military personnel seized beer, mineral water, soft drinks and trucks for no legal or constitutional reason whatsoever. No Judges or District Attorneys witnessed the procedure. The raid ignored the due course of law and denied the right to seek a judicial remedy on PANAMCO¹s and POLAR¹s behalf as well as for the protection of their private property. The raid has been deemed illegal, unconstitutional, morally incorrect ­the General¹s personal conduct has been subject to severe questioning by the Venezuelan and International communities­ and non consonant with ethical principles of the Military and the public servant.

Such improper use of power impairs the rule of law and impels President Chávez¹s lack of legitimacy. This is just another sign of how Mr. Chávez has become increasingly authoritarian and non-civilian.

Venezuela has been under the effects of a General Strike for eight weeks that (1) has put pressure on Mr. Chávez to step down and hold early Elections and (2) has raised great concern in the International Community. As pointed out before, the General Strike becomes a Constitutional Choice for those who decided to challenge Mr. Chávez¹s illegitimate Government and its illegal and unconstitutional actions.

The food processing companies are not violating any rights of the Venezuelan citizens ­as Mr. Chávez has said­. It is not the case of stock stored away for future sale at a higher price (a crime according to Article 106 of the Consumer Protection¹s Law). There is a shortage in the supply of fuel ­due to the General Strike­ that creates difficulties and further delays in the distribution system of food and beverages.

Reputable Venezuelan Lawyers have stated that the alleged hoard of food products , doesn¹t justify the raids . The circumstance at hand ­the fact that there were products in storage­ doesn¹t constitute affirmative proof that the accumulation stored away was meant to create shortage and price increase. The seizure of the product by the National Guard under the instructions of President Chávez and General Acosta Carles , constitutes a Confiscation of private property which is expressly forbidden by Article 116 of the Constitution. This was another unconstitutional action taken by the Government, which most probably ­as in many other cases­ will remain unpunished. For some it was an action of Theft by false pretext. Nobody has told the owner where the merchandise was taken and who will pay for it.

The international community ­very much concerned with what is taking place in Venezuela­ must be aware that the action was taken by men ­including President Chávez­ who are being repudiated by their fellow citizens and held in constitutional and legal contempt because of their vicious behavior in Government.

During the raids several Human Rights violations took place. National Guard Soldiers, maliciously injured protesters who tried to block the seizure of the bottling plants. Tear gas was used to push them back, also weapons and machetes. A woman spitefully hurt in her head by a Soldier, was taken to a hospital near Valencia and remained for several hours in intensive care. Workers of the bottling plants were also subject to evil treatment. Again, these acts will most probably remain unpunished under Mr. Chávez¹s political regime.

The Media reported that clashes involving police and rival protesters broke out on January 20, when Mr. Chávez¹s supporters attacked an opposition march in Charallave, a town located about thirty miles south of Caracas, where demonstrators exchanged volleys of bottles and rocks. One person was reported killed and several injured by gunfire. Both sides blamed each other for the violence.

This only confirms the tense climate generated by Mr. Chávez¹s so called «peaceful and democratic revolution». More than twenty people have been killed since April 11­; hundreds have been wounded. Mr. Carmona is in political exile; a General from the National Guard has been imprisoned , millions of people have been demonstrating against the Government in the streets, a General Strike has cut oil output and severely disrupted fuel and food supplies, but still Mr. Chávez claims his as a «peaceful and democratic revolution». Nobody believes in such a statement.

Mr. Chávez has been accusing his opponents of being «fascists and terrorists» . Roundtable negotiations conducted by OAS Secretary General César Gaviria, were thrown into doubt over the past weekend after Mr. Chávez threatened to quit the talks. Chávez rejects the call for early elections. Yesterday the Government resumed negotiations and talks in the Roundtable; this shows how inconsistent the Government of Mr. Chávez is. The key point remains the call for an early election.

The general strike deadlock has raised international concern over the future of Venezuela as an international oil supplier. Latin American Governments fear to face a political and social crisis similar to the one at hand in Venezuela. All these facts lead to intensified Diplomatic efforts to end the Venezuelan Political Crisis. The Initiative has been to form a Group of six nations (United States, Brazil, México, Chile, Spain and Portugal) to backup mediation efforts conducted by OAS Secretary General César Gaviria. U.N. Secretary General Cofi Annan has agreed to send an envoy to participate in the initiative. It has been reported that the Group will hold its first meeting in Washington, on Friday January 24.

Mr. Chávez tried hard to manipulate the Initiative. He maneuvered to include those Governments that ­he believes­ may have mutual affinity with his political project ­i.e. Cuba, China, Iran, Russia­; for such purpose he traveled overnight to Brazilia to convince President Lula of the need to expand the Initiative at his convenience. He failed in his intention and was forced by the circumstances to accept the Initiative as it was brought up in Quito . Mr. Chávez not only is immature and inexperienced when facing high level Political and Diplomatic matters, but he also lacks adequate advice ­or he doesn¹t pay proper attention to his advisors ­. An Initiative of this nature has to be ­obviously­ accepted by both parties in conflict, but at the same time must be as fair and independent as possible. Within Chávez¹s frame of mind, the Initiative had to be for the sole benefit of his continuance in Government and for the international condemn of the Opposition. In the end, his acceptance of the Initiative is being conditioned to the express recognition of his Constitutional character as President of Venezuela ­a fact that has never been questioned­. The other point he made is that the parties in conflict ­the Government and the Opposition­ are not «equal forces» regarding legitimacy and sovereignty. This is just another unacceptable statement by a non democratic President, one that is totally ignorant of the distinction between right and wrong and whose speech is usually shifty and obscure. There are serious doctrinal differences between the parties, but in the end they both represent important groups of the Venezuela Society.

The Opposition was planning to hold a non-binding Referendum on February 2. The needed signatures under the Venezuelan Constitution were collected to hold the Referendum. The Government not only refused to acknowledge the petition, but also introduced several lawsuits ­through members of the Official Party­ in the Supreme Tribunal of Justice based upon the arguments that (1) the Question ­for the Referendum­ is a «Constitutional Fraud» and, (2) decisions taken by current authorities of the National Electoral Council are not valid.

Today the Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruled in favor of the Government¹s petitions thus denying the Referendum called by nearly two million people. The rulings ­deemed unconstitutional by reputable Lawyers­ stated that: (1) the question is a «Constitutional Fraud» because of the non-binding character of the Referendum and, (2) current authorities of the National Electoral Council ­those who conducted Mr. Chávez¹s Presidential Election­ must be replaced by the National Assembly . In the meantime they cannot take valid decisions in electoral matters. To put it in simple terms, there is no Electoral Power in Venezuela after today¹s decision.

The ruling leaves the National Electoral Council ­an Independent National Power in accordance with the Constitution­ in total want of power to act at all, or lack of power to process and execute any petition for a Referendum or Electoral Process. It means that Constitutional Rights of the people of Venezuela have been revoked by a Supreme Court decision. We believe that Civil Disobedience ­supported by Articles 25 and 350 of the Constitution­ applies to demonstrate the injustice and unfairness of this unconstitutional decision.

Besides legal or technical considerations, the rulings ignored political and social circumstances and prevented the will of the people from being expressed through Constitutional means; Article 5 of the Constitution states that Sovereignty is non transferable and resides in the people. It is exercised through the means provided by the Constitution ­among others, the Referendum at hand­. The sole purpose of the Referendum was ­and continues to be­ to confirm that nearly 70% of the Venezuelan citizens would like Mr. Chávez to resign voluntarily or simply want him out of Office. In the end the Referendum ­at the Convenience of Mr. Chávez­ has been adjourned sine die by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice .

Tomorrow the Government is having a demonstration in favor of President Chávez. For this purpose, hundreds of buses (auto Pullmans) will be transporting followers of Mr. Chávez from several cities to their gathering point in Caracas. This arrangement differs from that of the Opposition leaders: in just a few hours they can call and bring hundreds of thousands of people to a given gathering point in Caracas or in any other major city; there is no need to provide buses, sums of money or alcoholic beverages to please the demonstrators. They (the opposition) go on their own to demonstrations and marches. It is an interesting phenomena: they don¹t follow any particular leader; they just want to get rid of Mr. Chávez. Obviously, nobody wants to get back to the old-politics that brought us to the present crisis.

Government Officials warned two private television stations yesterday ­obviously critical to Mr. Chávez¹s Government­ that they will face administrative procedures and eventual fines for running commercials in support of the General Strike. This is only another form of attack on the Media.

An Exchange Control has been put into effect today by the Government. Outflow of Capital has increased in recent weeks because of the uncertainty derived from the crisis. International Reserves have dropped ­according to the Ministers Report­. In the end it will become another form of Control over the Economy (the Business Sector), particularly over the Media, Industry and Commerce. Mr. Chávez said today that the Exchange Control becomes a tool to dismantle the «economic conspiracy» of the privileged. As in the case of PDVSA¹s intervention, he will take political ­revolutionary­ advantage of this economic measure that most probably will become ­as in the past­ a breeding ground for corruption and fraud.

We believe that Mr. Chávez will continue to buy time by maneuvering within the Negotiation and Agreement Roundtable. Now with the Referendum out of his way ­at least for some time­ he will try to divert the attention of the people, insist in the need to resume economic activity by ­formally­ lifting the General Strike ­which he barely recognizes­ and concentrate on his proposal for a Referendum to revoke his mandate in the month of August. Former U.S. President and Nobel Peace Prize Jimmy Carter said yesterday that the Strike could come to an end if the two sides agree to either of his proposals: (1) to amend the Constitution, reduce the Presidential term-period and call for immediate General Elections; (2) to call for a Referendum to revoke Mr. Chávez¹s mandate in August. Both proposals will take months to become effective. It will give Mr. Chávez more time to take control of the Media ­probably by imposing fines and even by revoking concessions­, PDVSA and the Foreign Exchange ­that began today­. In the meantime, Venezuelans as well as international investors will continue to divest ­most probably through a black market that will come along with the Exchange Control­; the employment rate will continue to raise, consumption will drop and so on an so forth. Mr. Chávez will also have the opportunity to put the blame on the Opposition for calling the General Strike and trying to make him step down.

This is the reason for Venezuela¹s urgency to reach a definite solution to the crisis. Mr. Chávez is responsible for the social unrest, the destruction of the institutional framework and is about to complete destroying the Venezuelan Economy. We believe that the International Community, through the Initiative and the active participation of the OAS Secretary General, will impose pressure on the Government and force Mr. Chávez to accept an electoral solution.

We also believe that Opposition groups will continue to call for a Referendum, to draft andeventually discuss and approve ­in the National Assembly­ a Constitutional Amendment and to call for a Constitutional Assembly ­to draft a new Constitution­. Mr. Chávez will continue to buy time but in the end will have to face his own Constitutional reality: an electoral process, within the Constitutional framework.

Venezuela is facing a profound Political and Governance Crisis that will only be resolved ­if and when­ a change of Government takes place. The new Administration must be supported by a National Political Agreement involving all sectors of the Venezuelan Society ­including those who back Mr. Chávez¹s so called «revolution»­. This is the only possible way to restore governance and to ensure a pathway to peace and prosperity.