Have we been here before?

18 September 1996

Just step back a little from the flood of scandals, accusations and rumours which counts for news over recent weeks. Where are we? Have we been here before?

We have one dead bank. One fugitive financier. One dying stock market. One stuttering economy.

Over recent months we have lost the Finance Minister, the head of the central bank, the head of the stock exchange commission. We nearly lost the head of the planning board. We are now into the third head of the Forestry Department in as many months.

The military promotions list has been batted around in press and public discussion for at least four months. In its passage from the service heads to the prime minister, it has allegedly been changed three times. All this ensures many senior soldiers are very disgruntled.

The debate over the procedure for amending the constitution had more counter-punches, more knockdowns, more excitment than the last Mike Tyson fight.

Major arm-wrestling matches are still in progress over the military satellite, armoured cars, telecommunication contracts, the Hopewell transit scheme.

The current account deficit is up. Exports down. Pork prices up. Stock market down. Short term funds up. The property market is slithering sideways. And economic policy is all over the place.

One department store is sacrificed to the fire god each month

A different farmers’ group turns up to camp outside government house every month.

The prime minister is under attack over his heritage, his birth, his home, his education, his family.

A cabinet packed with provincial bosses has become so confused it is trying to give as much power as possible to its sole surviving representative of Bangkok business.

Rumours abound: the prime minister is about to be assassinated; the head of the police is under investigation; finance firms are about to go belly up. The stock market is so nervous that it reacts to anything. Walk in there and whisper "Elvis is alive" and the index would drop 100 points.

Your first reaction could be: what a mess. But after second thoughts: what strength. The country is passing through a major political crisis which will eventually result in large adjustments to the political system. This crisis is being played out in open public view - in the daily press, on the nightly TV news.

In none of the surrounding countries is anything like this remotely thinkable. In Cambodia, someone would have escaped on a plane. In Myanmar, someone would be in jail. In Indonesia, someone would have been hurt. In Malaysia, matters would be under discussion behind closed doors. In Singapore... well in Singapore, these things would just never happen.

Resign. Reshuffle. Dissolve. National government. Dream team. The problem is: Thai politics doesn’t like to follow the obvious course. A little over a year ago, Chuan dissolved parliament and called elections following standard international parliamentary procedure. But Chuan was going against the grain of Thai political history. None of the other transitions in the last two decades have been quite so sedate. In no particular order, these transitions have included: two coups; one case of alleged blackmail; one major bout of street-fighting; and one straight hatchet job. In several instances, the face which popped up in the premiership was quite a surprise. Hands up who had money on Anand in 1991. Chatichai in 1988. Anand in 1992. Even Chuan in 1992.

It’s well-known that appearing to be a front-runner is the sure-fire way to fail. Remember Pramarn. Somboon. Arthit. It is wonderful watching Chavalit struggling to convince us that he is not absolutely desperate to be premier.

Not long ago, academics said Thailand was not a very political society. Over the last two decades, that has totally changed - because of the decline of military dictatorship, and most of all because of the rapid rate of economic and social change. Thailand is now a highly politicised society.

But parliament does a very bad job of representing this society. Parliament has fallen prey to "money politics". Parliament represents money not people.

The political world extends far beyond parliament and cabinet. The old elite is still in place. The military has its sphere of influence. The Interior Ministry still runs the provinces. The increasing importance of major court cases has made the senior judiciary a critical centre of power. Many senior statesmen still play an active role behind the scenes.

On the other side, the press acts as the mouthpiece for a whole swathe of interests which are not represented in parliament or establishment. Protests now receive a national hearing through the printed word. Arguably the press, not parliament, is the centrepiece of Thai democracy. Politicians like Samak complain bitterly that the press is unreasonably hostile. But that, the press and its supporters could reply, is because we have learnt about politicians from the past.

In this compex and shifting political world, power changes hands not simply by the parliamentary procedures of elections, debates, and decisions. These technical transactions are driven by deeper vibrations that run through the whole body politic. Chuan resigned and dissolved the parliament after one such vibration had dissolved away his parliamentary support. Banharn has been tipped into this crisis by the growing vibrations which split the Palang Daimler party away from the coalition.

In Imperial China, the transition from dynasty to dynasty was explained by the "mandate of heaven". When an emperor began to lose his grip, revolts broke out, rumours circulated, secret societies plotted, strange ideas emerged, bizarre events happenned, and natural calamities occurred. Then people muttered that these signs showed the mandate of heaven was passing. Soon the emperor would be assassinated, or bundled into exile, or simply put to flight. And a new dynast emerged.

Banharn lost the mandate of heaven when he ducked the first no-confidence debate. Since then the vibrations have been building to a crescendo. Now rumours circulate (crashing finance companies), strange ideas emerge (dream teams), bizarre events happen (department store fires), natural calamities occur.

If it floods badly next week, remember that Chang Noi warned you.