An election about nothing

20 dec 2004 

We are seven weeks away from an election that is about nothing at all.

This is amazing. Four years of Thai Rak Thai government has divided the society in a way that no previous government ever did. Some love what the government has done. Economic growth has returned in a way that few people expected. A range of new social programmes have been created which bring real and valued benefits to lots of people. Thai Rak Thai can claim with a lot of credit that it has done what it said it would do.

But it has also done other things which were not explicitly promised. It has tried to control the media, suppress civil society, obstruct free expression, reverse decentralisation, and halt the trend towards a more participatory polity. It has revived the political role of the military. Government leaders have shown contempt for democratic values, human rights, and the rule of law. More people have died in violent incidents involving government personnel or government campaigns than under any previous ministry. Corruption is at record levels. In all these respects, this government seems to be driving Thailand backwards towards its dark past.

Most strikingly of all, this government has silenced the vigorous debate over what sort of future the society wants. Instead, the only goal is to accelerate economic growth in order to qualify for membership in the club for rich countries. To hell with the environment, the ideal of a more egalitarian society, and social values other than the dog-eat-dog ethic of capitalism. For a lot of people, this government is not just bad, but frightening.

Yet the looming election is not about these issues. In fact, it does not seem to be about any issues at all. The media have not been concentrating on any clash of ideas or personalities. Instead, they have played up some sideshows, such as the election contest in Chiang Mai, and the turmoil in the Chart Thai Party. This is very telling.

In Chiang Mai Constituency 2, Kingkorn na Chiang Mai claims she was formerly promised the Thai Rak Thai candidacy, but Yaowapha Wongsawat (nee Shinawatra) decided to allocate the slot to Phayap Shinawatra. As a result, Kingkorn has defected to become the Democrat Party’s candidate for this seat. What does this tell us? At the local level, Thai Rak Thai and Democrat are no different as potential candidates can shuttle between the two. The election in this constituency is effectively being decided by a squabble between the city’s rich dynasties (old vs. new). In 2000-1, Thai Rak Thai promised a new era of Thai politics. That era still seems very distant.

The Chart Thai tiff is rather more interesting. The sex magnate, Chuwit Kamolvisit, won an impressive number of votes in the Bangkok mayoralty election, launched a political party, but then merged it into Chart Thai and became entangled with the party leader, Banharn Silpa-archa, over the party’s election strategy. Chuwit and Banharn symbolise two strands in Thai politics which are interestingly different from Thai Rak Thai. Banharn is the last of the old generation of party leaders who still survives. He stands for the old provincial machine politics, against the new Bangkok mega-money politics of Thai Rak Thai. Chuwit represents a flawed but genuine and gutsy populism, in contrast to the PR-managed, market-researched, airbrushed and professionally scripted version of Thai Rak Thai.

But in the end, both Chiang Mai and Chart Thai are sideshows, little bits of entertainment to distract our attention from the fact that the main stage is empty. There is no clash of titans, no sound of battle, no whiff of gunsmoke. This election is like a puppet show performed in the dark.

Why? The short-term answer is that Thai Rak Thai won the contest brilliantly by its preemptive campaign of handouts and mega-promises in mid-year. The prime minister’s cavalcade circulated round the provinces, shovelling (promises of) money off the back of trucks. The party drew up a wishlist of mega-projects stretching far into the future. The clear perspex box appeared on Phitsanuloke Road inviting any citizen to petition the government. The Thai Rak Thai party’s election campaign programme is much less clear and prominent than four years ago because it really does not matter.

By the time the opposition parties lumbered into action, the drama was over. Thai Rak Thai had commanded the stage, put on a great show, and exhausted the audience’s attention. The opposition parties have been going through the motions of election campaigning, but with all the sound and fury of a slow-motion mime performed in an empty theatre. This is not all their own fault. The government’s influence over the Thai-language media (especially the electronic segment) has meant that the opposition parties are marginalised in public space. The opposition parties have crafted campaign platforms, but the Thai Rak Thai apparatchiks claim these platforms are simply replicas of the Thai Rak Thai version. This may be massively dishonest, but it is brilliant strategy. This is why the opposition leaders, despite their campaign platforms and advertising efforts, seem like puppets or dumb mimes which make no noise.

A weightier answer to why this election is about nothing is that the kind of populism which Thai Rak Thai embraces is designed to make politics about little issues rather than big ones. Please don’t think about the future of the country, just enjoy another 400,000 baht for your village fund. Don’t pay attention to all those dead people because we have this new SML scheme. Who cares about the rule of law since we really, really are going to eradicate poverty in six years. Keep quiet and you may get rich. Don’t worry about corruption because we are waging a war against it, really.

The fact this election is about nothing is partly a failure of the opposition, but much more a triumph for the Thai Rak Thai party.