A guide to what happens next in Thai politics.

 4 sep 2002

It’s the time of year when companies prepare next year’s preliminary plan, including a forecast of the politics. As a public service, Chang Noi is providing a guide.

Right now, if anyone tells you when the election will be, who will appear as prime minister, and when things will settle down, you will have learnt one thing. That person is a liar. People who follow Thai soap operas know that these productions have several script-writers, who may not agree on the trend of the plot and the final ending. Part of the charm of watching is that you can never predict the next amazing twist in the plot. Thai politics is now a bit like that. There are lots of script-writers, and we don’t know who is composing the next episode.

When will the election be? October 15 now looks impossible. We should have an Election Commission this week, but it will probably have no single member with previous experience. They will need a while. Maybe a month later. Maybe two.

What will happen at the election? The results of the aborted April election and a couple of polls show that Thai Rak Thai (TRT) has slipped a lot. But the figures are not firm enough, so any accurate prediction is impossible. TRT has leaked news that their own polls give them 300 seats, but this is just part of the propaganda war. The Democrats will gain some, but it is difficult to see them lifting above 150 seats. The joker is Chart Thai.

Banharn is smart. He did a lot better at the 2004 polls than anyone expected. TRT has lost a lot of support in the central region, the east, and the lower northeast. These disaffected voters are unlikely to switch to the Democrats which they see as a party of the south and the capital. Banharn will be able to use his old networks to find candidates with local appeal. Expect Chart Thai to do rather well, but how well is difficult to tell before the candidate lists appear.

What will happen inside TRT? So far, the party has held together well. Only Snoh Thienthong has quit, taking at most a dozen followers. But there is a lot of internal banging about. Several key TRT figures would like Thaksin to lead them into the election because he has proven voter appeal, but then stand aside so that things can get back to normal.

What will Thaksin do? So far, he has said he will lead the party at the election, but is not saying what he will do after that. His actions have been more eloquent. He has had several meetings with Banharn. In opposition over the past year, Banharn said several terrible things about Thaksin, but these will not present the two slithering up to one another. Helpfully, Banharn gave the press some account of their “confidential” conversations. Thaksin offered to support Banharn as prime minister, which shows that Thaksin is contemplating stepping aside. But Thaksin also said he was worried about being presented with the “checkbill” for the recent past. The cost could include lots of money, and freedom. Thaksin still worries he has to stay on to protect himself.

Banharn is a smart choice. Thaksin needs someone with the political skills to quieten things down. Thaksin also needs someone who will be temporary. Banharn is ageing, and says he’s ready to retire. But there’s a potential problem with this plan. Suppose Chart Thai does very well in the election. Suppose Banharn held the balance of power. He would then be able to blackmail TRT for his support.

If not Banharn as an alternative, then who? There seem to be only two credible candidates left inside TRT. Somkid has got the support of the biggest single faction inside the party, and the endorsement of the business community outside. He has said repeatedly that he doesn’t want the job. He seems temperamentally more of a back-room operator than a front-line leader. But he really is a kid from nowhere (unlike Thaksin who pretends to be a kid from nowhere), and it would be a huge personal achievement to go all the way to the top. Besides, in the culture of Thai politics, he owes a debt to Thaksin as his patron, and will find it hard to refuse if Thaksin presses him. The problem for Thaksin is that he could be too popular, too successful, and hence not temporary enough.

The alternative is Phongthep Thepkanchana. He has no support base in the party, and no popular following. He is a professional whose political career has depended on Thaksin. He is also the second richest in TRT, and the rich tend to trust the rich. He’s a smooth operator and probably has the personal skills to quieten things down both inside and outside the party. He is more acceptable to many elite outsiders than other TRT candidates.

What about the army? This is a major issue. If Thaksin decides to stay on, he needs the support of the army to suppress the vocal opposition. A year ago, he lost a bitter struggle over the appointment of the army chief. Sonthi Boonyaratkalin is not his man. Earlier this year, Thaksin floated the idea of declaring a state of emergency to deal with the anti-Thaksin demonstrations. Sonthi flatly refused. Twice Sonthi has moved army officers friendly to Thaksin out of positions which place them in command of troops around the capital. Last week, in a highly unusual public statement, Sonthi opposed Thaksin’s known candidate for commander of the First Army corps. Perhaps the amazing bomb plot (too dumb to be a serious assassination attempt; too incredible to work as a bid for sympathy) is part of this battle.

Well, there it is. That should make the immediate future of Thai politics as clear as the Chaophraya River in the flood season. Good luck with the rest of the company’s annual plan.