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The fable of the US and the MMF
24 December 2001
January 2002. The US economy
continues to weaken as the impact of September 11 combines with the
cyclical downturn. Japanese banks decide to unload their enormous stock
of US Treasury bonds before things get even worse.
They quietly sell the whole lot to a Martian hedge fund. The hedge fund
shorts them on the cosmic bond market, making in seconds a profit
equivalent to the income of several minor planets. The head of the hedge
fund retires to write a book about the possibility that cosmic
capitalism might not deliver him such a good income in the future.
February. The US dollar drops like a stone. Markets are in turmoil. Men
with earrings are seen crying. Fearing a cosmic financial panic, the
Martian Monetary Fund (MMF) sends a delegation to New York to take
control.
After a short investigation, the head of the MMF announces: "This
crisis has come about because the US economy has relied on outsiders to
finance and subsidise its economy. If the Japanese had not bought all
these Treasury bonds, the US would have sunk years ago. Consumers have
been spending far more than they truly earn. The savings rate is zero.
Market prices are overblown. Without the foreign inflows, the US economy
is unsustainable. The debts are colossal. The mad carnival in America is
over."
Bond salesmen stage a rally in Wall Street carrying posters saying:
"MMF out. Down with cosmic colonialism." The MMF head
responds: "We have seen this sort of crisis before in the outer
galaxies. The US cannot accept reality. It is currently in denial. You
will have to cease all this nonsense about stimulus packages, corporate
bail-outs, low interest rates and soft landings. The market must work
its magic. We will apply the usual remedies." At this point several
US bankers and Treasury officials attempt to interrupt, but to no avail.
Martians have no ears.
The MMF delegation presents the crisis-management plan. Double the sales
tax. Double the gas price. Slash government spending. Interest rates at
20 per cent. Alan Greenspan signs the agreement under the glare of the
MMF head, standing with tentacles folded. The US economy stops on a
dime.
The malls are deserted. Confidence disappears. The stock market drops to
one eighth of its peak level. The Martian professor of economics writes
an op-ed piece widely replicated in the cosmic press: "It's clear
that this crisis exposes the reality behind the so-called 'American
model' of capitalism. Look at Enron. This is the true face of American
capitalism. The stock price was artificially inflated. The executives
were squirreling away huge salaries and benefits. The data was cooked to
meet the quarterly targets. This American model of capitalism may
deliver growth and profits in the short term. But it is technically
unsustainable, as this crisis reveals. What's more it lacks morality,
humanity, and compassion. To the dustbin!"
The MMF delegation decides to close down Nasdaq and suspend trading of
all its companies. Thousands are laid off in Silicon Valley alone.
Across the US, unemployment climbs to 15 million.
March. The president gives a speech advocating a return to
self-sufficiency. "Farming your own plot of land has been the
essence of the American heritage from the time of the Pilgrim
Fathers." Silicon Valley is ploughed over and planted with carrots.
April. Housewives no longer have the cash to pay the maid to clean the
house or the gardener to sweep the leaves. Millions of illegal and
semi-legal Latino immigrants are out of work. "Once again,"
the MMF head pontificates, "we see how the US economy relied on the
outside world in a way which was unsustainable." Convoys of
returning immigrants pour south, jamming the border crossing at Tijuana.
The Mexican economy collapses.
May. Unemployed executives discover that the only sector of the economy
remaining vibrant is the cocaine trade. They apply the skills they
learnt in business school. The cocaine market size multiplies at least
four times. The Colombian economy rockets. The US government transfers
the entire education budget to building jails.
June. A Martian consulting firm proposes a scheme for auctioning the
assets of frozen Nasdaq companies. To prevent the old owners bidding for
their own assets, the consultant decides that the only acceptable form
of payment is Martian quartzite. The consultant's sister banking company
buys up the whole lot in the morning (at 25 per cent of book value), and
resells to the original owners at lunchtime (at 50 per cent). It makes a
profit equivalent to the income of several minor planets. The head of
the New York stock exchange cannot suppress his horrified admiration:
"I haven't seen anything like that since the one-eyed Spaniard
stopped doing the three-card trick down on Broadway."
Bill Gates is the only American businessman left. He was tipped off by
his Martian friends. He got his money out of dollars and into euros
before the crash. He forms the Love America Party and launches a bid for
the presidency. He strips off his cashmere sweater, revealing that he is
really Superman. He distributes to every American citizen a copy of
Windows XP with an unalterable screen displaying his three-point
electoral programme: debt relief for venture capitalists, revolving
funds for unemployed MBAs, and a US$30 scheme for psychiatric care.
He claims to combine the new fad for self-sufficiency, with hopes for a
resurgence based on Microsoft technology. His party symbol is an
electronic carrot which connects to the Internet, but only with
Microsoft Explorer installed. The Martian press calls him a populist,
nationalist and monopolist. He is elected by a landslide. He changes the
name of the country from US to MS.
July. Mars is sensationally attacked by a clandestine network of
fundamentalist mineralogists from Krypton. "Mars has no respect for
superheroes," the mineralogists claim. Mars appeals to the other
planets for support: "You are either for mineralogy or against
it." The US replies: "But now all we care about is
carrots."
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