At sea with General Chavalit

25 June 1997

Amnuay is not the first pilot who has been tossed off the pirate ship in a storm. The sea is full of the bodies of Thailand's modern technocrats. Three governors of the central bank have walked the plank over the last twelve years. Under Banharn, one finance minister was thrown overboard, and another hurled himself off as the ship was going down. A little earlier, Virabhongse Ramankura quit the job claiming sea-sickness. Some other prominent officers have gone the same way. Ekamol Khiriwat was court-martialled from the Securities and Exchange Commission and then keel-hauled, all in the space of two days.

Not surprisingly, good new recruits are becoming hard to find. Banharn's press gangs roamed the streets for several weeks looking for a finance minister. The last head of the stock exchange adamantly refused to sign on for another passage. When Chavalit announced the crew of the good ship Dream Team, many on the list ducked out of sight. Last week, Olarn Chaipravat refused to be commissioned as finance minister, and brought along an impressive bodyguard for his interview with the captain.

The recruitment ads for crew members now say: no relevant experience required. The current head of the stock exchange announced on his appointment that he knew next to nothing about the market. Neither of Banharn's finance ministers knew much about macroeconomics. To save Thanong from making his own confession, Chavalit announced to the world that a finance minister does not need any special expertise.

Why all this carnage?

Since the mid-80s, we have had two big trends of change, in the economy and politics respectively.

The economy has become bigger, complex, and more internationalised. Our exports depend more and more on the cycle of the regional electronics industry centred on Singapore. Our finance is hostage to the money markets of the world. Labour flows in from Burma, Laos and China, and out to Japan, Taiwan and Europe. We are no longer a rice-growing village. When our finance minister splashes into the sea, it registers on the radar screens in London, Tokyo and New York.

Politics have become more open, more democratic. Since 1988, the elected parliament has grown in importance. Parliament and Cabinet have been dominated by the rising businessmen of the provinces. They have tended to treat politics as a business.

There is a big contradiction between these two trends. The economy has rapidly become more international, more modern. But politics have become more parochial, more backward.

Occasionally, this contradiction emerges in graphic ways. Why, asked Samak Sundaravej, do these international rating agencies who are downgrading the Thai economy have such inauspicious names (Moodys, Standard and Poor)? He was helplessly angry about the power these agencies had acquired over Thailand. And he expressed his anger in the language of local superstition. Similarly, the turnover at the finance ministry is blamed on some inauspicious wooden elephants. And the growing crisis is confused with the astrology of the god Rahu.

There is nothing very unique here. During economic crises in Italy, there are more miracles reported. And in Brazil, more sightings of five-legged cows. One of the few certainties about the unfolding of the economic and political crisis here over the next few months is that more monitor lizards will be found at Government House.

Another result of this contradiction between the international economy and parochial politics are the bodies strewn in the wake of the pirate ship. Technocrats who have tried to protect the modern economy from parochial cronyism have often had a short voyage. Amnuay's last words as he went over the side were rather lost in the storm winds, but they sounded like: be careful, guided only by greed you will run on the rocks for sure.

Chavalit rose, against the background of Banharn, on the promise that he would overcome this contradiction, that he would clean out the pirate ship, that he would reform everything - constitution, bureaucracy, corruption, budget. Amnuay was a long-term member of this project. The Dream Team was what made Chavalit different from Banharn.

Ditching Amnuay was much more than a minor adjustment in the crew. It confirms that Chavalit no longer stands for reform. He has already orphaned the constitutional reform he started. The reform of the bureaucracy promised "within three months" is nowhere to be seen. The changes in the budget process have dissolved.

The tableau on the steps of Government House last Thursday said it all. Here was Chavalit surrounded by Chatichai Choonhaven, Snoh Thienthong, Somboon Rahong, Montri Pongpanich, Chalerm Yubamrung, even Wathana Asavaheme. This same crew has been on board since 1988. First in the good ship Buffet. Then clambering onto the decks of the frigate, Big Su. After a short shore leave, manning the steamer, 7-Eleven. And now fearlessly sailing the battleship Big Jiew straight into the eye of the storm.

Chavalit is a prisoner on his own ship. And Chang Noi doubts there are enough lifebelts to go round.