“Baseball
breaks your heart.It
is designed to break your heart.The game begins in the spring, when everything else
begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the
afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains
come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone.”- A. Bartlett Giamatti
This week's report is usually when I take a detailed look at
the standings in each category, tracking down every point that could be won or
lost by the end of the season in the thrilling race to the CFCL
Championship. This year, though... well, not so thrilling.
The Ruffins seemingly wrapped up the title when they opened
up a 10-point lead back in August, so there's not really much point in doing an
exhaustive study of the standings.
That's not to slight what's going on elsewhere of course, as
we've got a three-team battle for second place, two teams trying to under-IP
themselves into 11th place, and an old favorite trying to sneak his way into the
bottom of the first division.
As of this writing, the Splendid Splinters lead the Second
Place hopefuls, topping the DoorMatts by 2.5 points and Kenndoza Line by 3.
There are any number of ways this could shake out. Taking it by category:
Runs Scored:
The Splinters' second place ranking is safe here, and the
DoorMatts lead Kenndoza by 30 TB,
which may be a bit much to make up in four days. If they
can do it though, Kenndoza would hop over the DoorMatts and be
within 2 points of the Splinters.
Runs Scored:
Kenndoza leads the Picts by just 1
RS, so they could easily lose a point here. The
Splinters and DoorMatts appear to be secure.
Runs Batted In:
The DoorMatts are just 8 RBI
behind Kenndoza Line. If they can make up that difference
in four days it would secure their hold on Third Place and bring
them a point closer to Second. Once again, the Splinters'
points are safe here.
Stolen Bases:
Finally a category where the Splinters can lose a point -
they're just 2 SB ahead of
the Picts. It doesn't look like Kenndoza nor the DoorMatts
will see any movement either way here.
On-Base Percentage:
Lots of tight races here - Kenndoza Line could lose a couple
points as they lead the Red Hots by .0003
and the Lambchops by just .0006.
The DoorMatts, on the other hand, could gain a couple by passing
the Bulls (who they trail by .0001)
and the Copperfields (.0002).
Likewise, the Matts could lose a point to the Stones, who are
only .0005 behind
them.
Earned Run Average:
The DoorMatts are mile ahead here, and would need a staff full
of second-half Mark Buehrles to drop back to the pack.
Kenndoza Line is just .003 behind
the Splinters, so could pick up a nice 2-point swing if they
out-pitch the Second Place leaders.
WHIP:
The Splinters could help secure their lead, as they're
indistinguishable percentage points behind the Copperfields in
the category, though they lead the Red Hots by just .0003,
so they could almost as easily lose a point. Kenndoza Line
is only .0004 from taking a
point away from Da Paul Meisters in the category.
K:BB:
The DoorMatts appear to be the only team that might see some
movement here, as they're just .02
ahead of Mo's Red Hots.
Quality Starts:
The DoorMatts will win this category, though they may fall a bit
short of the season record held by Da Paul Meisters (the Matts
are 7 behind). Meanwhile the fate of the Splinters and
Kenndoza Line could be determined by the Champion Ruffins.
The Splinters lead the Ruffins by 2 QS,
while Kenndoza trails them by 4 QS.
As usual, this one may depend on how starting assignments are
doled out the last few days of the season.
Holds + Saves:
Lots of opportunity for movement here... The Lambchops have been
making a late run at the category-leaders Kenndoza Line, and now
stand just 3 HoSv behind
them after gaining 6 on them in the last week.
The DoorMatts could pick up a point and a
half here, as they're currently tied with the Copperfields and
are only 2 HoSv behind the
Ruffins. The Red Hots are trail the Matts by the same
amount, so they could end up losing a point instead of gaining.
The Splinters have a point there for the
taking as well, just 1 HoSv
behind Dem Rebels
All in all, there are plenty of points for the gaining/losing
by the 2nd-4th teams in the next few days.
A little farther down, the Stones and Lambchops
are slugging it out for 11th place. The Chops appeared to
have it sewn up a while ago, but they've made a slight charge at
the Stones (or the Stones have charged down their way), and
they've crept ahead of the Stoney Ones in the past couple
weeks. For those two franchises, the key categories will be:
RBI,
where the Chops could lose a point to the Copperfields;
On-Base Percentage,
where the Lambchops stand an equal chance of gaining or losing
points while the Stones are poised to steal a point from the
DoorMatts;
WHIP,
where the Bulls are creeping up on the Lambchops;
K:BB,
where the Stones could gain a point at the Rebels' expense;
Quality Starts,
where the two combatants stand tied at 50 apiece, and are just 3
behind the Rebels; and
Holds + Saves,
where the Lambchops could hop ahead of Kenndoza Line and the
Stones could end up losing points to the Bulls and Mesiters.
Finally, that "old favorite" I
mentioned up at the top -- what's gotten into the Copperfields?
20 points behind Nick's Picts on September 1, they've narrowed the
gap to only 3 points with four games to go. The Coppers will
be pulling hard for the Bull this weekend, as the Gragers are just
11 TB and 2
SB behind the Picts. Meanwhile the Copperfields
could potentially gain 2.5 points in the QS and HoSv
categories. If everything breaks right, the Copperfields
could sneak into the top half of the standings in the season's
final games.
We don't need no stinkin' pennant race...
Eeeking By
All the IP worry was for naught, as it appears that both the
Stones and Lambchops will squeak over the 1000 IP minimum and thus received
their earned points in the ERA, WHIP, and K:BB categories.
The Stones passed
the mark early this week, while at the time of this writing (stats through
9/27) the Lambchops stand poised follow, with 999 IP.
Both teams, former CFCL Champions each, are spared the ignominy
of being the first franchise in CFCL history to not meet the minimum, and as the
teams are separated by just 2 points it's good to know the race for 11th place
will be decided above-board, with all categories counting.
Record Setters
Congratulations to David's Ruffins, not only for their
impending CFCL Championship, but for breaking the 2004 Copperfields' record of
3262 Total Bases. With four games left in the season, the Ruffins stand at
3294, so they'll be setting the new bar quite a bit higher.
The Ruffins also remain on track to set a new record for
Total Points (104.5 by the 2004 Stones) and Offensive Points (58 by the
2003 Reservoir Dogs).
Most-Improved Competition
Through games of 9/27, the Copperfields have increased their
lead in the competition for the greatest increase in points since 8/31, and look
like a good bet to wrap this one up.
Copperfields+14 DoorMatts+6.5
Splinters
+4.5
Hometown Discount Watch
In 2007, the teams that finished in 5th-12th
place in 2006 will receive a budget of up to .06 to use toward reacquiring
players who had played out their option with the team (B-contract players). The
exact amount each team receives will be based on how far behind the 5th
place team they are at the end of the year, in terms of a percentage of the 5th
place team's point total.
Team
Points
%
of
5th Place
Discount
Budget
Mo's
Red Hots
76.0
100.00%
.06
Nick's
Picts
70.5
92.76%
.05
David's
Copperfields
67.5
88.82%
.05
Da
Paul Meisters
48.0
63.16%
.03
Graging
Bulls
45.5
59.87%
.03
Eric's
Lambchops
38.5
50.66%
.03
Steve's
Stones
36.5
48.03%
.02
Dem
Rebels
22.0
28.95%
.01
Since the trade deadline has passed, here’s an early
peek at the players who will probably be HTD-eligible in the 2007 Draft:
RED
HOTS
(.06) L
Gonzalez
A EverettDOORMATTS
(.06) J Lane R Oswalt B Fuentes Y Torreabla B Giles A Pujols
PICTS
(.05) J Schmidt B Looper M Ensberg
COPPERS
(.04) C Reitsma B Schnieder
STONES
(.04) P LoDuca
BULLS (.03) no B contract players
MEISTERS
(.02) K Griffey T Glavine J Smoltz
LAMBCHOPS
(.02) B Clark
REBELS
(.02) no B contract players
Record Book
Week Ending 09/29: No new
records were set this week.
