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October 1

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Free Agent Bids and Waiver Claims

Quality Meisters

I neglected to mention it a couple weeks ago when it first happened, but Da Paul Meisters broke the record for Quality Starts in a season back on September 16.  They passed the old mark of 108, which had been held by the 2003 Lambchops.  Congrats Paul!

No other category records are likely to fall this year, though the Copperfields have an outside shot at the 2004 Stones' record for 104.5 points in a season.  But we're not going to talk about that...

Race Recap

Well, it's all come down to this.  Just a few games left, and the 2005 CFCL Championship is still undecided.  While the Reservoir Dogs and Copperfields will go down to the wire for the top spot, the Kenndoza Line is surging and now has a shot at 2nd place.  And of course, the Lambchops and Hot Sludge Sundae continue to battle to finish in 11th place and avoid the cellar.  

As we've done the past several years, let's take a look at how the categories stand to determine where points are in play for the season's last few days.

NOTE:  In order to get this report published on a timely basis, I've written this up using the standings as posted on the morning of Friday Sept. 30.  With as close as things are, details may have changed quite a bit by the time it's published and you read it, so keep that in mind.

Unthinkable a couple months ago when the Reservoir Dogs held a 13 point lead over the second place Copperfields, we've ended up with a race that may not be decided until the season's final game has been played. 

The Copperfields are now in the top spot with a 2 point lead over the Reservoir Dogs, but as well see, it's by no means secure.  A strong finish could easily put the Dogs into first.  Conversely, if the Dogs stumble this weekend, it would open the doors for Kenndoza Line to make up the current 5-point gap and sneak past the Dogs into Second Place.

Looking at the 10 categories,  only one (Total Bases) doesn't have significant points in play entering the last weekend.  Checking in on the other nine: 

Runs Scored:  This one was seemingly settled just seven days ago.  But a torrid week by the Reservoir Dogs' hitters and a poor showing by Kenndoza Line have the Dogs suddenly toeing the Line, with the two teams even in the category.  Chances are someone will pick up half a point here.

RBI:  Here we find the same story as in RS.  Kenndoza Line seemed to be in a good position this time last week, leading the category by 15 over the Reservoir Dogs.  The Dogs have closed the gap, however, and now trail by just 5 RBI, a difference easily made up over the season's last three days.

Stolen Bases:  Once again we find the Dogs surging.  They've stolen 6 more bases than the DoorMatts this week, and have pulled even with the Matts in the category.  The Dogs can only pick up a half a point here by breaking the tie, but that could end up being a very important half a point.

On-Base Percentage:  Things are tight at the top of this category, where the Reservoir Dogs currently lead the Copperfields by .0016.  Splitting those two teams are the Ruffins, who trail the Dogs by .0014 and lead the Coppers by just .0002.  Kenndoza Line rounds out the top four, trailing the Copperfields by .0014.  There's still enough time for these teams to finish in any order, which means the Coppers could lose a point here, while an incredible finish by Kenndoza could net them 4 points in their pursuit of the Dogs.  

Earned Run Average:  Like OBP, a crucial category this weekend.  Only 0.007 in ERA separates Kenndoza Line, the Copperfields, and the Reservoir Dogs.  If the Dogs could hop to the top of that pile (passing the Coppers in the process), that move alone would put them into First Place.

WHIP:  There doesn't appear much the Reservoir Dogs or Kenndoza Line can do here, but the Copperfields are just 0.006 in WHIP behind Da Paul Meisters.  A good finish in the category could give the Coppers a little breathing room.

K:BB:  The Reservoir Dogs currently hold a 0.01 lead over the DoorMatts, a lead they'll need to maintain in order to aid their chase of the Copperfields.

Quality Starts:  Two races to watch here.  The Copperfields are 1 QS behind the DoorMatts in the category, which means a point or a half could be in play for the Coppers.   A look at the projected starters for the weekend favors the Matts' chances to stay ahead, though.  Not that the Dogs need to be spectators in the category.  A little farther down, only 1 QS separates the Ruffins, Kenndoza Line, and the Reservoir Dogs, with the Dogs at the bottom of that pile.  A surge past the other two teams means a couple more points for the Dogs.  Likewise, Kenndoza Line could pick up half a point by breaking the current tie with the Ruffins.

Holds+Saves: Yet another opportunity for the Copperfields to lose a point here, as they hold just a 3 HoSv lead over the Picts.

I've been doing this "Race Recap" on the last transaction date of the season for several years now, and we typically have a pretty tight race to review.  Despite the closeness of those past contests though, in not a single one did a team come from behind in the season's final three days to win the Championship.  I think there's an exceedingly strong possibility that that may change this year.

Possible bad news for Reservoir Dog fans, though:  in order for the Dogs to take home their first CFCL Championship, they'll need to top the Copperfields by at least half a point.  If the two teams finish the season tied in points, the crown would go to the Copperfields, as they currently sit ahead of the Dogs in 6 categories (Total Bases, Runs Scored, Stolen Bases, ERA, K:BB, and Quality Starts), as opposed to the four where the Reservoir Dogs lead the Coppers.

Even if the Dogs are able to pass the Copperfields in a category (likely ERA), the Coppers would win the second tiebreaker, which goes to the team that has the highest total of (IPx3)+AB+BB.  Only one time in CFCL history has the Championship been decided by tie breaker.   That was in 1999 when the Six Packs edged the Copperfields by virtue of less than 200 treble-IP + AB.

Not to be lost in all the Championship hubub is the barn burner we've got going between the Lambchops and Hot Sludge Sundae to determine which will finish out of the basement.  The Sludge currently sit 2 points ahead of the Chops, but there are plenty of points still in play.  The Lambchops have a chance to pick up points in RS and RBI, but of particular interest are three categories where the Chops are taking on the Sludge head-to-head.  The Chops trail the sludge by just 1 SB, .0011 in OBP, and 0.04 in ERA.  Those are margins that could easily be made up between now and the end of the season, so the Sludge's lead isn't any more secure than the Copperfields' this weekend.

Hometown Discount Watch

In 2006, the teams that finished in 5^th-12^th place in 2005 will receive a budget of up to .06 to use toward reacquiring players who had played out their option with the team (B-contract players). The exact amount each team receives will be based on how far behind the 5^th place team they are at the end of the year, in terms of a percentage of the 5^th place team's point total.